Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates
Mitch Keller had his best start of the season by far on Monday, throwing a complete game while allowing 5 hits, 1 walk, and 1 run. He struck out 5. He has had an extremely underwhelming season so far, sitting at a 4.41 ERA and a 44:16 K:BB in 49 innings even after this great start. He flashed ace upside multiple times last year and was one of the best pitchers in the league for the first half of the season, but he hasn't shown any of that upside in 2024 so far. He has given up 4 runs in half of his starts, and even after a complete game gem, he still is leaving something to be desired. Only striking out 5 over 9 innings is not what you want to see, and the fact that he only got 7 whiffs in the entire game makes it worse. On 109 total pitches and 57 swings, 9 whiffs work out to a 12% whiff rate and 6.4% SwStr%, which is nothing short of terrible. He has also been hit extremely hard all season, with a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 46.3% hard-hit rate coming into this start. He will still be a usable pitcher for fantasy, but it's hard to envision him ranking in the top 50 at the position.
Christopher Morel, 3B/OF, Cubs
Christopher Morel went 1 for 4 with a homer, a walk, and a stolen base on Monday night. He had a slow month of April despite excellent underlying metrics, and he currently has a .496 xSLG (84th percentile) while striking out significantly less (21.3% compared to 31% last season) and walking more often (12.1% compared to 8.4%). It always looked like a breakout was coming this season, and it looks like that time has finally arrived. He now has 4 home runs in his last 5 games, and 5 HR and 3 SB in his last 8. Morel showed last year that he had the ability to go on huge hot streaks, hitting 9 home runs in his first 12 games after being called up last season. It looks like he is finally heating up again, and should be able to easily make up for his underwhelming April. Get him in your lineups now, and for the rest of the season, I view him as a top-35 outfielder and top-15 third baseman.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers
Teoscar Hernandez went 2 for 4 with a single and a solo home run on Monday. It brings his season slash line to .259/.325/.490 with 9 HR, 24 R, 26 RBI, and 3 SB. He is in the midst of a nice bounceback season with the Dodgers, and it looks like his claims were true about his struggles in Seattle. He said he had problems seeing the ball out of the pitcher's hand at his home park, and his home and road splits from last year seemed to further support the claim. He had a three-year stretch of a .579, .524, and .491 SLG, before falling all the way down to .435 last season. He has cut his chase rate from 35.2% to 27.2% in 2024, allowing himself to make more contact on hittable pitches. When he does make contact, it's usually hard, as he has a 53.5% hard-hit rate (94th percentile), a 13.3% barrel rate (87th percentile), and a 91.8 mph average exit velocity (85th percentile). As if his outlook wasn't already good enough, he also gets the benefit of hitting in the best lineup in baseball, making him a standout in runs and RBI. He looks like he was one of the better values on draft day, and is back to being a top-15 outfielder for fantasy. His high strikeout totals still hurt him in points leagues, so he falls closer to 20th in the rankings in those formats.
Yu Darvish, SP, Padres
Yu Darvish pitched 5 shutout innings against the Cubs with 3 hits, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. It's his second straight start of five shutout innings since returning from the injured list, and he finally looked to get some of his swing-and-miss stuff back for this contest. He had 15 whiffs on the night which is tied for his most on the season, producing an excellent 18% SwStr%. His slider was his most effecting pitch, garnering 8 whiffs on 22 swings for a 36% whiff rate. While he will never be the ace that he once was, Darvish is showing that he is still a very useful pitcher for fantasy. I wouldn't go as far as to call him a must-start, and his next matchup against the Dodgers will be a scary one, but if he performs well again it might be time to move him back up the rankings.
Simeon Woods Richardson, SP, Twins
Simeon Woods Richardson had the best start of his young career on Monday, striking out 8 over 6 shutout innings while allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk against the Mariners. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs in any start through his first four, and currently has a 1.74 ERA and a 21:5 K:BB through 20.2 innings. He had a middling 12.2% SwStr% and 29% CSW% but is nonetheless putting himself on fantasy managers' radars with his performances so far. However, coming into this start, he only had a 16.2% whiff rate, a 43.5% hard-hit rate, and an xERA of 4.83. He may be worth an add in deep leagues where 90+ starting pitchers are rostered, but it seems like most of his production can be attributed to good luck.
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