Chris Sale, SP (ATL)
Sale was absolutely brilliant against his former team on Wednesday. It was his first scoreless appearance as an Atlanta Brave and the first double-digit strikeout game of the season. He allowed six hits and one walk in six innings while striking out 10 Red Sox hitters. The veteran lefty lowered his ERA to 2.95 with 52 strikeouts in 42.2 innings. His slider generated 13 swinging strikes and nine called strikes, leading to a 59% CSW rate. That's pretty ridiculous. Everything is groovy in his first season with Atlanta. Sale is inducing extremely weak contact while getting plenty of swings and misses. The Braves may choose to limit his workload in order to keep him healthy for the postseason, but he is a must-start when on the bump.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B (TOR)
Vlad's eight-game hitting streak came to an end on Tuesday, but he made sure it didn't turn into a slump, posting his first three-hit game of the season on Wednesday. Unfortunately all three hits were singles and Guerrero is stuck on four home runs and 10 extra-base hits through 37 games. He is hitting the ball super hard, but his groundball rate is over 50 percent. He has consistently hit the ball on the ground throughout his career. His 7.5-degree career launch angle just doesn't take advantage of his extraordinary home run potential. During his best season, when he hit .311 with 48 home runs in 2021, his ground ball rate was the lowest of his career at less than 45 percent. If only he could regain some of that lift, his power would develop. With that being said, he is dealing with a bit of bad luck, courtesy of a career-low 11.8% HR/FB rate. Expect that to regress as the weather heats up.
Craig Kimbrel, RP (BAL)
Kimbrel had a two-run lead with one out to get before giving up a home run and two walks, the first of which would come around to score and tie the game, leading to his third blown save in his past five appearances. The veteran closer has allowed at least one run in five of his last six outings. He has walked eight batters during that stretch. His hold on the closer role is tenuous, especially with Yennier Cano pitching well (Cano got the save for the Orioles on Saturday and escaped a jam in the 7th inning on Wednesday). Kimbrel's fastball isn't what it once was, consistently sitting a mile per hour or two below his recent seasons. That's leading to more contact and harder contact and overall more trouble. The Orioles aren't in a position to suffer too many late-inning losses so Kimbrel's fantasy reliability is, well, about as reliable as his four-seam fastball.
Chris Paddack, SP (MIN)
Paddack was dominant on Wednesday, striking out 10 batters in 5.1 innings. He allowed one run on eight hits and one walk, but the only real damage came on a Mitch Garver solo home run. Paddack has been inconsistent, to say the least, but if you take out his awful nine-run outing at Baltimore on Apr. 16, his ERA is 2.53 with 35 strikeouts in 32 innings. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. That 9-run disaster will remain on his ERA throughout the season, but fantasy owners should feel pretty good about his latest performances. On Wednesday, he got 19 whiffs on 55 swings, and his four-seam fastball generated a 45% CSW rate. The reality, unfortunately, is that Paddack will probably face an innings limit since he only totaled 27.1 combined major league innings over the previous two seasons, but the upside is evident.
Nick Pivetta, SP (BOS)
Pivetta was not particularly sharp in his return from the injured list. The Red Sox starter spent more than a month on the IL with an elbow injury before returning to the mound on Wednesday. He allowed five runs on seven hits, including three home runs. He only struck out one batter in four innings. It wasn't an easy task making his return against the Braves and the major league home run leader, Marcell Ozuna, who got Pivetta for two long balls. The good news is Pivetta's velocity was fine and he only walked one batter. He was very good in the two starts prior to his injury and he should probably be reinserted into most fantasy lineups.
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