Jacob deGrom-Rangers-SP
Jacob deGrom went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 3 BB, and 4 K's against the Cardinals. Through 12 starts, he holds a 2.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 69.1 IP. DeGrom continues to exhibit elite strikeout prowess (27.0% K) while maintaining excellent control (6.1% BB). His 3.38 SIERA suggests that he has outperformed his skills. This is largely due to a .237 BABIP and 90% LOB. Notably, deGrom has slightly reduced his fastball velocity to 97.1 mph in 2025, down from 99.2 mph in 2021, as part of a strategic adjustment to prolong his career. This is why it is hard to bet against someone who has been elite and is producing elite results despite regression staring at us in the face.
Garrett Crochet-Red Sox-SP
Garrett Crochet went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 12 K's against the Braves. Crochet has a 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 22% K:BB through 82 IP. His strikeout rate is down from last year (35%->30%), and his walk rate is up from 6% to 8%. The good news is that both numbers are still well above average, and he is pitching at an elite level. Crochet has made a slight change to his pitch mix this season, throwing fewer four-seam fastballs, which is on brand for the Red Sox. He is instead throwing more sinkers. Getting his fastball back to elite territory could help him jump back into the discussion as the best pitcher in baseball. His next start will be a tough one in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees.
Gavin Williams-Guardians-SP
Gavin Williams went 6.2 IP and gave up 0 ER on 1 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Angels. Gavin Williams started the year struggling (5.14 ERA in April). He turned that around in May (3.28 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 16% K:BB). He has increased his strikeouts (29% K) but has struggled with control at times (16% BB), but a lot of that was a 6 BB game against the Dodgers. He is making a slight pitch change to include more sinkers and cutters to right-handed hitters, which was part of his problem. Right-handed batters have hit .340 with a .896 OPS against Williams. The hope is that the control could improve as he gets more comfortable with his new pitch mix. The upside is evident in his strikeout rate. His next start will come at home against the Astros. He is working on three straight scoreless starts.
Hayden Birdsong-Giants-SP
Hayden Birdsong went 5.1 IP and gave up 1 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 5 K's against the Marlins. This was Birdsong's third start since being moved from the pen to the rotation. On the year, he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.56 SIERA. The biggest difference between last year and this year is the improvement in his walk rate from 14% to 9%. Birdsong has good stuff, so it was a matter of getting it in the zone more. The improved control is also backed by a change in his pitch mix. He is throwing fewer fastballs and more sliders. He has better control of his slider than his fastball, which makes sense to use it more. Birdsong has also improved the zone% of his fastball from 48% last year to 51% this year. It is not a huge jump, but every strike matters for someone who was walking 14% of batters. He gets a tough matchup next week against the Braves.
Ryan Weathers-Marlins-SP
Ryan Weathers went 6 IP and gave up 4 ER on 5 H, 3 BB, and 7 K's against the Giants. Through 4 GS, Weathers has a 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 18% K:BB. He is missing more bats than a year ago (24% K) with the same control (7% BB). His Stuff+ has gone from 100 to 110, which is reflected in the increase in strikeouts and swinging strikes. This is the result of increasing your fastball velocity from 95.9 mph to 97.5 mph. Weathers is throwing the fastball more, which makes sense given that it is above-average velo, especially for a left-handed starter. He pairs that with two good offspeed pitches in his slider and changeup. Weathers will start next week against the Rays.
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