Brandon Woodruff- P- MIL- Hot-Woodruff ran his record to 4-0 since coming back from the IL after missing more than a season. Last night he allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8 in 7 IPs. The runs came from a pair of solo homers. This was Woodruff's longest start since returning but he had gone 6 IPs in all but one of his 5 prior starts. For the season Woodruff has posted a 2.29 ERA, lower than his 3.75 FIP but not that far off from his 2.90 xFIP. His 1.78 HR/9 is well above his 1.02 career mark so the xFIP is probably a better measure of his performance. Woodruff looks ready to finish strong in 2025.
Jakob Marsee- OF-MIA- Rookie- 24-year-old Marsee has burst on the scene with the surging Marlins. After going 1-for-3 with a double, run, and RBI last night he is slashing .435/.552/.826 in a small sample size of 29 PAs. More than half of Marsee's 10 hits have been for extra bases, with 4 doubles, a triple, and a homer. He has had an inordinate amount of good fortune with a .563 BABIP. Before last night, Marsee's xBA was .395. His EV was92.3 and HardHit% 57.1%. Those numbers are far above what he showed at AAA Jacksonville, where his EV was 87.3 and HardHIt% 30.4%. Marsee will obviously not be able to maintain this level of production. He will likely be filling the strong side of a platoon, which will highlight his strengths. Marsee did hit 14 homers in 429 PAs in Jacksonville so has showed increased power. He has very good plate discipline and so far has increased his 15.9% BB% at AAA to 20.7% with the Marlins. Marsee's best skill is likely his speed. He swiped 47 bases at AAA this season after collecting 51 at AA and AAA in 2024. Even if regression impacts his average, the walk rate and speed will probably have Marsee providing some useful results as the Marlins are probably going to stick with him as the season starts to wind down. He turned 24 in June so is still developing and is a player to watch in 2026.
Chase Burns- P- CIN- Rookie- If the Speedway Classic hadn't been suspended due to weather, would Burns have struck out 10 batters? Considering that he struck out exactly 10 batters in each of his 3 starts before the Classic and did it again last night it's an interesting question that we will never know the answer to. Burns recorded the second quality start of his young career but has yet to record his first win as the Cincinnati bullpen gave up the lead late. Burns may have a 5.24 ERA but that is way out of line with his 2.44 FIP and 2.28 xFIP. He has recorded Ks by the bunches at each brief stop up the professional ladder in his first pro season and MLB is no exception. Burns' 14.94 K/9 is not a mirage and his overall performance has lived up to the hype.
Matt Vierling- OF- DET- Hot- Vierling hit 16 homers in 567 PAs in 2024. His 2025 season was delayed until May 23 and then put on hold after 4 games until June 28 due to rotator cuff issues. That could understandably impact power but Vierling hadn't hit a homer in his first 96 PAs, which seems a little extreme. Last night he made a pinch hitting appearance and finally hit a homer. This could be the start of a power surge. Vierling has a 92.0 EV, 42.9% HardHit%, 11.1% Barrel%, and 49.2% FB%. Those are not the kind of metrics you'd expect to produce no homers in 96 PAs. Power is not the only area where it seems Vierling has had bas luck. His xBA is 24 points above his AVG. Regression will be Vierling's friend over the last weeks of the season.
Seth Lugo- P- KC- Cold- Regression may be catching up with Lugo. Last night he turned in his worst start of the season. Lugo was charged with 7 runs (all earned) on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out just 1 in 4 IP. It was the third straight start that Lugo didn't record one of the quality variety. He has only struck out an average of a batter per inning once in his last 6 outings. The gap between Lugo's ERA and FIP has narrowed as his ERA is now 3.46 and his FIP is 4.66. Lugo has not had an ERA above his FIP since 2017 (excluding the 2020 COVID season) so he may not see his ERA rise all the way up. Over his career, though, his second half ERA has been more than ¾ of a run higher than in the first half. Last year it was almost a run and a half higher as the season wound down. Lugo may be in for a rough stretch.
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