Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Mitchell went 2-4 with R, 3B, RBI, and K on two hard hit balls. Mitchell's offensive profile is immensely polarizing. A 60% hard hit rate and 48% LASS are truly eye-popping, and they're backed by 76.5 bat speed. His 3rd percentile Squared-Up rate is fairly low, which means the standard deviation around his 94 EV is VERY tight, which would explain the high hard hit rate. His 12% Pull Air rate and 52% GB rate, combined with the tight distribution around his EV mean that we shouldn't expect too many homers in a full season. The bad news is that his 46% whiff rate and 39% K are as equally flabbergasting as his exit data. I'm going to air on the more pessimistic side. Judge's career hard hit rate is 58%, and his LASS is 38%, so unless you think he's Judge, he's going to regress. All the quality of contact has to do is regress even a little bit for it to wash away the ratios under the context of how bad the contact skills are. Sell.
Mauricio Dubon, SS, Atlanta Braves
Dubon went 2-3 with R, 2B, and BB on one hard hit ball. Dubon is slashing .313/.360/.475, but the figures under the hood are not exciting. For starters, his .349 xwOBACON is a career high, but still not even big-league average. And we can say that same for his hard hit rate (32%) and barrel % (6.5). Dubon doesn't whiff much, his present 18.5% rate matches his career rate, but it's not valuable in fantasy if he doesn't have any juice. He's not a runner, and he doesn't bat in the top half of the lineup. Sell.
Devin Williams, RP, New York Mets
Williams was a superstar closer with a sea of red for his Savant page. Then, 2025 hit, where he posted a 4.79 ERA. Those struggles have followed him into 2026. He went 0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 0 K on a terrible outing to blow the tie and pick up the loss. He now has a 14.54 ERA (7 ER) in 4.1 IP. His 33% whiff rate and 35% GB rate are career lows. It's a small sample, but it's a continuation of the exact issues we saw in 2025. I'm worried and would shop him around.
Chase Dollander, SP, Colorado Rockies
Dollander spun 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 9 K on six hard hit balls. Dollander has a 2.88 ERA in 25 IP with 32 K. The most important part about Dollander is that his groundball rate has skyrocketed from 42% to 56%. This is significant as a Rockies starter, as it hopefully limits homerun risk. It's somewhat offset by his 14% barrel rate against, which is concerning for the ballpark he plays in. Dollander throws hard and has solid stuff, but he leaves a lot in the middle of the zone (10% meatball %). The mediocre execution is probably responsible for the higher quality of contact against (56% hard hit rate, 40% last year). I really like Dollander, but I think he is a sell. His 3.23 ERA and 3.87 FIP suggest he's a touch worse than what we're seeing. I'm still concerned about the quality of contact against in his home ballpark.
Oswald Peraza, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
Peraza went 2-3 with a R and K on one hard hit ball. He now has a .292/.361/.538 slash line, but I don't buy it. Peraza's 42% LASS and 10.6% barrel rate are attractive, but they're a pretty far cry from his 30% LASS and 6.3% career rates. His 88 EV is right in touch with his career average. He whiffs at 32%, but actually has a league average 82.7% zone contact, which will come down, as he's never displayed that good of contact in a meaningful sample. If the current pace were to hold up, he would be in 20/20+ territory, maybe more, and a .268 xBA (his xBA now), but I don't think anyone actually believes he's that kind of player.
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