Casey Mize (SP-DET) looked like an ace in the Bronx on Monday as he fired 7 innings of shutout ball in which he allowed just 1 hit while walking none and racking up 10 punchouts on 88 pitches (58 strikes). The 29 year-old RHP is in the midst of a career year as he owns a 2.63 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.53 xFIP through 12 starts (65 IP). Mize has shown plus control in the past, but his 13% swinging-strike rate, 30% chase rate, 72.5% overall contact rate, and 81% in-zone contact rates are all career bests as he has really leaned on his splitter (25% usage) and slider (25% usage) while deploying his fastball a career-low 45% of the time. Mize's Statcast profile features a career-best 36% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 88 mph. Not bad for a guy playing for a new contract in 2027. Up next is a start in Texas against the injury-riddled Rangers.
Esmerlyn Valdez (OF-PIT) continued to show off his power as he went 2-3 with a homer, 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored at Philadelphia. The 22 year-old rookie is making an impression in 2026 as he posted a .255 average to go with 13 HR, 38 RBI, and 33 R across 237 PA in Triple-A before getting the call to the majors, commanding the dish with a 17.5% walk rate against a 21.5% strikeout rate. He's made an impact in the majors with a .289 average, 6 HR, 12 RBI, and 10 runs scored through his first 50 PA in the majors. While there's been some patience (10% walk rate) in that small sample size, the contact concerns in his scouting profiles have surfaced as he's fanned at a 38% clip thanks to a 17% swinging-strike rate, 62% overall contact rate, and 67% in-zone contact rate. But Valdez has done serious damage when he does get the bat on the ball, with Statcast showing a 66.5% hard-hit rate, 33.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 94.5 mph. It's still very early and the next 50 PA or so will tell us a lot more about Valdez. For now, deploy while he's mashing and be ready to pivot when pitchers adjust.
Brandon Marsh (OF-PHI) continues to produce as he went 2-5 with a pair of solo dingers against the Pirates on Monday. The 28 year-old has flashed upside in the past but could never quite stay on the field and put it all together but is now in the midst of a breakout campaign in which he's hitting .322 with 14 big flies, 44 RBI, 48 runs scored, and 8 steals (in 11 attempts) through 314 PA. While a .401 BABIP is very high on the surface, Marsh's career BABIP is .376. A 26% strikeout rate is certainly concerning, but that's well below his career average (30.5%) and his 88.5% in-zone contact rate is among the best of his career. Marsh's Statcast profile, meanwhile, shows a healthy 46.5% hard-hit rate, 8.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90 mph. This is shaping up to be a career year for Marsh, but smart money says that average will dip toward his .269 career mark.
Caleb Durbin (3B-BOS) stayed hot as he went 1-3 with a solo shot and a walk against the Nationals on Monday evening. The 26 year-old is now hitting just .231 with 7 HR, 35 RBI, 31 R, and 9 SB (in 12 tries) through 271 PA on the season, but he's been on a real hot streak as he entered the contest hitting .351 with 5 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, and 4 SB in 61 PA since June 10. During that span, he's made a ton of contact (83% overall and 93.5% in zone), but there has been so little contact as Statcast shows a 28.5% hard-hit rate, 6% barrel rate, and average exit velo of just 82.5 mph. Add and start him in fantasy while he's red hot, but the advanced metrics indicate that this is not sustainable.
Aaron Nola (SP-PHI) got knocked around by the Buccos on Monday as he surrendered 8 runs (7 earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 over 4.1 IP. The 33 year-old righty served up a pair of round trippers while throwing 52 of his 86 offerings for strikes. And so the rough season continues for Nola, who now owns a 6.04 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.97 xFIP through 85 IP. A .328 BABIP (.295 career), 68% strand rate (73% career), and 18% HR/FB (14.5% career) are all inflating his ERA, but Nola has been very hittable (88% in-zone contact rate and 77% overall contact rate) while he's recorded a 10.5% swinging-strike rate that is among the lowest of his career (11.5% average) and yielded a good bit of loud contact, with Statcast showing a 40.5% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph. If he's going to course correct, Sunday in Kansas City is about as good of an opportunity as one will get.
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