Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets
Francisco Lindor had a monstrous day at the dish on Monday, going 3-for-5 with two home runs, a triple, two runs, and six RBI. This is exactly what the superstar needed to break out of his slump, and his slash line now sits at .233/.318/.425 with eight home runs and two stolen bases in 50 games. That's obviously not the pace we expect to see from the veteran, who missed significant time this year with a calf strain. While his underlying metrics aren't quite up to his usual standards, they aren't bad either, and his 48.3% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velocity still grade out as elite. His xBA and xSLG are also both above his actual marks, so it's only a matter of time before Lindor becomes an elite option once again.
George Kirby, SP, Mariners
George Kirby was hit hard on Monday, allowing seven runs on seven hits over four innings against the Rangers. He struck out three. This broke a stretch of six straight quality starts for the righty, who now has a 3.98 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season. Those are much worse rations then we're used to seeing from Kirby, who used to routinely post sub-1.10 WHIPs when he first broke out in fantasy in 2023 and 2024. His walk rate of 5.2% is still elite, but he's given up much more hard contact than in the past, with a hard-hit rate of 42.2%, which ranks in the 25th percentile. Combine that with his mediocre strikeout rate of 21.8% and a whiff rate of 22.2%, and you get a more volatile profile than you'd expect from a fantasy ace. Those days seem to be gone, as it's safer to consider Kirby a top-30 starting pitcher moving forward, rather than a true difference-making option.
Tatsuya Imai, SP, Astros
Tatsuya Imai failed to make it out of the first inning against the Red Sox on Monday, allowing two runs on one hit and four walks with one strikeout in 0.2 innings. While he only gave up one hit, the control was nowhere to be found, as he was yanked from the game after delivering four free passes. Imai is one of the most volatile pitchers in the league, as this is the third time in his past seven starts where he's failed to pitch at least two innings, while also working in a 10-strikeout and 11-strikeout performance in that span. You never know what you're going to get when you start Imai, as it could be anywhere from an ace performance to a complete disaster. This is seen in his underlying metrics, too, as his 31.6% whiff rate is elite, while his 14% walk rate is among the worst in the league. His upside will always remain tantalizing, but it's just too much of a risk to your ratios to ever be comfortable starting him in fantasy.
Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox
Payton Tolle was solid on Monday against the A's, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 5.1 innings. This was his third consecutive start of at least seven punchouts, and his ERA now sits at 3.32 for the season as a whole. It's been a great rookie season for the youngster, whose .206 xBA ranks in the 86th percentile, while his 26.2% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 34.3% chase rate all grade out as above average. The one thing that could get him in trouble is his 35.5% groundball rate, as the excessive amount of fly balls could lead to home run issues in the future, but he's diminished those risks with a 34.3% hard-hit rate. Tolle has proven himself to be a solid fantasy contributor with an even brighter future ahead for him.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Cubs
Alex Bregman had a great day at the plate on Monday, going 4-for-5 with a home run, two doubles, three runs, and two RBI. He's now slashing .241/.336/.369 with 53 runs, 11 home runs, and 46 RBI. It's been a huge decrease in power for the third baseman this season, who has seen his slugging percentage fall from .462 last season to .369 this year. His quality of contact metrics have been down across the board, with a 4.2% barrel rate and 36% hard-hit rate that are both toward the bottom of the league. That's especially troubling when combined with his move to Wrigley Field, who have some of the deepest corners in the league. Bregman has historically thrived with an excellent pull air rate, but that 23.6% pull air rate doesn't play as well when he's in one of the worst ballparks for that approach. Unfortunately, the veteran should no longer be considered an above-average option at the position, and should be a borderline fantasy starter at best.
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