Nick Blackburn: Even with a good control/ground ball package, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47% GB%, Blackburn’s complete lack of dominance, 2.3 K/9, is leading to a 5.21 ERA. His previous work, 2008/2009 K/9’s 4.5/4.3, offers some of hope of better dominance, but even those levels would make him one to stay away from in all fantasy formats.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Matsuzaka’s skills continue to decline, 2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 8.3/8.2/6.8, BB/9’s 5.1/4.6/4.2, and GB%’s 39%34%/29%, and are at a point where his dominance can’t cover up his shortcomings, 4.59 ERA despite a depressed .209 BHIP%. If his BHIP% normalizes, you are looking at a 5.00+ ERA pitcher and with his poor control/high fly ball package, 49% FB%, if his 4% HR/FB% normalizes, he could be out of the league.
Jake Peavy: Although his dominance is down, 2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 8.6/9.7/7.7, the rest of Peavy’s skill set has remained stable, BB%’s 3.1/3.0/3.1 and GB%’s 41%/42%/41%. Moving from pitcher-friendly Petco and the NL to the hitter-friendly US Cellular Field and AL has not helped, but Peavy is much better than his current 5.90 ERA, as he is suffering from horrible misfortune, 58% S%. His current skill set offers upside if his strand rate normalizes, but if he can rediscover his previous dominance, there could be major upside.
Brandon Morrow: You won’t find many SP with the kind of dominance that Morrow is currently sporting, 10.4 K/9, but his ERA is an ugly 5.48. A 62% S% can take part of the blame, but Morrow is not helping himself with poor control, 4.9 BB/9. If Morrow can improve his control, he could be a very dangerous pitcher; unfortunately his past doesn’t inspire much confidence, 2008/2009 BB/9’s 4.7/5.7.
Cliff Lee: Lee’s control has gone from pinpoint to unbelievable, 2008/2009/2010 BB/9’s 1.4/1.7/0.6. What is even more amazing is that his dominance has actually gotten stronger, 2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 6.0/7.0/8.5. Throw in a 44% GB%, and you have one of the best skill sets of any SP in baseball.
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