Ben Zobrist 2B/OF (TB) – Zobrist is off to a slow start, and his plate discipline is the cause. Last season, Zobrist chased pitches just 19.3% of the time, which was about 6 percent less than the major league average. So far this season, he is swinging at pitches outside of the zone 31% of the time, which is about 4 percent more than the major league average. As a result, Zobrist’s walk percentage is about half of what it was last season, leading to a .38 EYE. That’s dramatically lower than last season’s .88 EYE, which was largely responsible for Zobrist’s breakout year. Zobrist needs to get back that patience. Overall, he’s swinging at pitches 4.6% more than he did last season. Watch over the next couple of weeks to see if Zobrist continues to be undisciplined or if he reverts back to last year’s approach; that will be the key as to whether or not he is able to duplicate last year’s solid offensive output.
Julio Borbon OF (TEX) – Borbon is off to a dreadful start. After yesterday’s 0 – 5 performance, Borbon is hitting a lowly .083. So, is he a bust or a buy low candidate? Unfortunately for Borbon owners it might be bust. Borbon is really having a tough time at the plate. He has struck out 7 times and is yet to take a walk. He’s certainly had his fair share of bad luck (very low singles average), but that’s to be expected when you have an EYE of 0.00 (not a misprint) and a pitiful LD% of 4.2% (entering yesterday’s play). You can’t steal bases when you can’t get on base, and Borbon is having incredible difficulty getting on base. While Borbon is by no means a lost cause, he has not just been unlucky. He’s been downright awful, and it’s only a matter of time before he loses the leadoff spot to Elvis Andrus, which will hurt his long term value even if he does eventually turn things around offensively.
Alex Rodriguez 3B (NYY) – Alex Rodriguez hit his first homer of the year yesterday. Owners shouldn’t be worried about A-Rod’s early power outage. He has a high FB%, and his solid EYE of .83 is right in line with what he did last season and would match a career high. A-Rod’s 50 HR days are behind, but he is a safe bet to hit 35 – 40 HR. His HR/FB%’s have been incredibly consistent over the years. Here they are over the past three seasons (27.3/22/22.7); his career mark is 23.5. There’s no reason not to expect more of the same this season.
Justin Verlander SP (DET) – A first rough inning had Verlander owners screaming here we go again. However, Verlander quickly rebounded last night and gave up 3 ER over 7 IP. More importantly, Verlander struck out 6 and walked only 1 batter. Even with the strong outing, though, Verlander’s ERA sits at 6.88. Owners should not worry as a.) his K/BB ratio was great last night as I already pointed out and b.) Verlander was incredibly unlucky in his first two starts. Entering yesterday’s start, Verlander’s LOB% was 41%, and his HR/FB% was 15.4%. Those numbers are laughably unlucky and show that anything can happen within a small sample size. Verlander will be just fine; in two of his three starts he has struck out 6 and walked just 1.
Jake Peavy SP (CHW) – Peavy seemingly rebounded from two subpar starts by going 7 innings and allowing just 2 ER against the Indians. However, Peavy only struck out 3 batters and walked as many. He now has just 10 K’s in 17.2 IP, which is not good for a power pitcher like Peavy. He’s not making up for it with impeccable control either (1.25 K/BB ratio). Entering yesterday’s game, opposing batters had a LD% of 27.5% against Peavy. Clearly Peavy is not sharp to start the season. Is it the American League? Is it health? I’m not sure, but after a poor Spring and three consecutive subpar outings owners might want to explore trade opportunities, especially if they can get good return value for Peavy based on his history alone. To reiterate what Lou said after Peavy’s previous poor outing, yes it’s early, but the low K rate is of definite concern.
