Zack Greinke (SP- KC) Zack Greinke continued his struggles last night in Minnesota allowing 4 runs, 2 earned, in 5 innings of work on 6 hits, 5 walks and 5 Ks. He drops to 0-2, 3.57, with a bulky 1.47 ERA, the result of 20 hits and 6 walks allowed in 17.2 IP. There isn’t much terribly out of whack in Zack’s indicators. His 3.0 BB/9 is one area of note, up from 2.0 last year and 2.4 in 2008. An while his GB ratio is solid at 41.4% (40.0% last year) he’d been a bit less lucky in his HR/FB ratio this year (7.7%) than last (4.5%). Zack also benefitted from a favorable LOB% in his Cy Young season at 79.3% which lowered his ERA from the 3.25 or so his WHIP suggests to the 2.16 he posted. This year Zach has seen a more neutral 71.6% LOB% which accounts in part for his 3.57 ERA although his 1.47 WHIP suggests even that is a soft indicator of how much he’s struggled to this point. Zack’s velocity is very comparable to his last two years and he is healthy. He had some factors working in his favor last year that he’s not likely to reproduce this year, so there will be at least a bit of an expected rebound. Still, he’s not particularly sharp right now either. It’ll get better than this, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to produce at last year’s levels.
Fred Lewis (OF - TOR) Fred Lewis didn’t arrive in Toronto early enough to make last night’s starting lineup after his trade from San Francisco. Lewis’ rehab assignment was due to expire and the Giants shipped him to the Jays to avoid having to deal with an overcrowded outfield situation on their 25-man roster. Lewis seems, by the metrics, seems to be an above average outfielder although eyes on scouting tends to dispute that. From a fantasy standpoint his offensive contributions are limited. Lewis has maintained a 10.1% BB rate in over 1,000 career ABs contributing to a respectable .355 OBP. He hits the ball on the ground (1.95 GB/FB), uses his speed, and certainly has the capability to steal 20 bases with enough ABs. If your league scores runs he’ll be a contributor there as well. His high ground ball rate and contact issues (26.1% K rate career) limit his power contributions however. Lewis posted just a .390 SLG% last year in 336 ABs and his career high was .440 in 521 2008 ABs (9 HRs, 41 RBI). If runs and SBs are on your shopping list Lewis could provide a spark for you in those columns with enough playing time, but you’ll make sacrifices in other columns.
Jered Weaver (SP - ANA) Jered Weaver posted 7 strong innings against the Jays Friday night limiting them to 2 runs in 7 IP on 5 hits and 2 BB while fanning 7. Weaver improves to 2-0, 2.84 and 0.89 with 21 Ks in 19 IP. Weaver has feasted on the Blue Jays, with a 6-1 record and a 2.93 ERA over 7 career starts, and that includes the 6 runs he allowed in just four innings in his only loss to the Jays in 2008. If you put stock in such things, keep in mind that against his next opponent the Tigers, Weaver is 2-2 with a 7.36 ERA lifetime. Jered’s K rate is up slightly in a small sample to this point but, save for a favorable BHIP%, his performance is pretty well supported by his indicators. So far he’s actually pitching as well as his results indicate.
Shaun Marcum (SP- - TOR) Shaun Marcum took the decision in last night’s loss to the Angels allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in 7 IP with 6 K’s and a walk. Marcum has pitched well since returning this season. His velocity (86.3 mph average) is nearly where it was prior to his injury in 2008 (86.8), but he’s still a foot off his velocity from 2005 (89.4) and 2006 (88.1). Shaun’s control has been excellent to this point allowing just 3 walks in 20 IP against 17 Ks. Shaun’s indicators in fact look eerily similar to his pre-injury indicators from 2008 and as such, if they continue, should produce similar results. Keep in mind in 2008 however his 3.39 ERA was helped by a very favorable 80.2% LOB%. If you rolled the dice on Marcum in this year’s draft and got him at a good price, you seem to be lined up for a nice reward. Double-digit wins and a slightly-sub-4.00 ERA seems a reasonable projection based on what we have seen … so far.
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF - BOS) Jacoby Ellsbury had a second round of X-rays on his ribs and they confirmed his injury is limited to bruising although he’s still feeling considerable discomfort. Mike Cameron is returning this weekend, and with Jeremy Hermida contributing the Sox will take it slow with Jacoby although they still feel he can make it back earlier than he could if placed retroactively on the DL. He’s probably done for this scoring period and may not be a viable play for next week depending how much depth you have in the OF. It looks like at best he'll play the back half of next week, but we’ll stay on top of it for you.
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