Fred Lewis - Lewis has been seemingly growing into the leadoff slot for the Jays before our very eyes, as July has seen him increase his walk rate dramatically, an impact that he has magnified by swiping five bags in the first half of the month. Lewis is doing what he always does: using his speed to generate an excellent BABIP despite an average-to-decent LD% by limiting the number of flyballs he hits. He's banging out even more doubles than usual, as he's on pace for over 50 per 162 games, and he's on target to steal over 20 bags as well. I don't think there's much about this that is a mirage...he could reasonably expect to perform like this for another year or two before the wheels start to go in his 30's. He's no star, but in medium-to-deep formats he certainly has his uses.
Zack Greinke - Greinke scuffled through a subpar outing last night against the A's, allowing eight baserunners and five runs over six innings, but picking up a quality start due to the fact that three of the runs were unearned. I'm still surprised every time I look at Greinke's DOB (which still makes him just 26, incidentally), as it seems he's been around forever, but even though he's still a youngster I imagine just about everyone thinks that last year will turn out to have been be his career year. Too many things went right for him last year, and this season he's kind of back to where he was in 2008: a lower-tier ace or solid #2 starter. One of his issues this year is that the gap between his FB velocity and CU velocity has narrowed by about 10%...a fairly sizable shrinkage. My opinion is that that fact is the primary culprit in the increased contact rate against him this season, something that has consequently decreased his K rate significantly and allowed his BABIP to remain fairly stable despite far fewer line drives against this season. I still expect Greinke to remain a solid option providing that his recent shoulder issues don't amount to anything longer-term, but I'm not sure that he's going to be a top-10 arm as it appeared might be the case last season.
James Shields - Shields threw a bit better yesterday than he has of late, but it was still a familiar theme....something akin to mostly cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Shields has only thrown quality starts in 3 of his last 9, and he's coughed up 12 homers over that span. Yes, his K/BB ratio would lead you to believe that some better things are on the horizon, but I wouldn't want to get carried away with that premise, as his FIP ERA is still just 4.27. Shields takes the ball every day, pitches for an offensively talented team (albeit one that hasn't quite produced to expectations this year), and strikes out a lot of guys. Those are all good things, but the gopher problems (and continually increasing LD rates) aren't likely to go away since they've typically been issues for the 28 year old. He's a #3-#5 starter at best, but still worthwhile in just about every format.
Coco Crisp - Crisp continues to bang out the XBH, picking up a double last night to give him 10 XBH in just 70 AB since coming off of the DL. I'm not worried at all about the increased K rate he's shown in the early going (for him, anyway), as his swinging strike% is right in line with his career norms, so although the power is likely to dissipate quite a bit as we move further into the summer, Crisp (with 5 SB and 16 R in just 19 G) is likely to provide value in his normal fashion, while possibly showing some increased pop as well.
Aaron Hill - Hill didn't let the ASB cool off his modest hot streak, as the 28 year old 2B banged out three hits (including a double and another homer) in the 4-2 win over Baltimore. I'm certainly with Drew on Hill's apparent buy-low status: his walk rate and contact rate are improved over last season, his power is down modestly from what is likely a career year but remains at a respectable level, and a horrific LD% is really all that's keeping him from reasonable value up the middle. No one, and I do mean no one short of those of us that just wish we could see a 90 mph fastball (and most pitchers), posts an LD% of under 10% at the big league level, so just by good fortune and the same approach Hill will likely see a 3 or 4 percent increase there in the 2nd half. Couple that with a bit of extra luck on BABIP and I think you could reasonably expect a line of 240/340/430 without any actual improvement whatsoever. Add in the fact that I would easily expect some improvement as well, and I think you've got a very solid buy-low option on the trade market.
