Barry Zito (SP—Giants) Barry Zito dominated the Mets Friday night as he pitched 8 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits, 2 walks and striking out 10. With that outing, Zito was able to lower his ERA to 3.51 for the season. By far, this has been the most consistent that we have seen Zito in a Giant's uniform. He's had two or three games this season that were poor but for the most part he has been excellent. Going into Friday's game, Zito had a FIP of 3.92 which was very much in line with his ERA indicating that he has been very effective and that his ERA is a solid indication of how well he has been pitching. Interestingly enough, many of Zito's component stats (H/9, K/9, BB/9) this season are right in line with his career averages. So what's different this year than all the other of recent past? Well, Zito's LD% is down 2% from his career norm and his FB% is slightly up almost 2% above his career average. But the key is that Zito has not been getting burned with the home run ball this season. His HR/FB is at 5.3% this season which is more than 3% down from his norm. If Zito can keep his home runs allowed down, he's a good bet to continue the solid year he is having.
Ted Lilly (SP—Cubs) He didn't factor into the decision on Friday, but Ted Lilly had a pretty impressive game going 7 innings, allowing 4 hits, and walk. He struck out 10 batters which is very impressive. But his biggest blemish was that he allowed 2 home runs. Kinda a shame when half of the hits allowed are over the fence. This season Lilly's ERA is somewhat inflated at 4.07, but he does have a solid 1.12 ERA but has been the victim of a really poor LOB% at 71%. Lilly's biggest problem is that his FB% is over 51% and has been very susceptible to the home run. In fact, he has allowed 18 this year and playing at Wrigley Field doesn't help. Interestingly, there is much talk about Lilly, who is a free agent at the end of this season, being packaged up prior to the trade deadline and going to a team that is in contention. Going to a contending team will no doubt help his overall value but depending upon the home ballpark he winds up in, it could help to reduce his home run balls and we could see a very effective Lilly in the second half if this pans out. Keep an eye on him as his value could get a good boost.
Chad Billingsley (SP—Dodgers) It was certainly not the way Chad Billingsley wanted to start of the second half of the season and it certainly wasn't what fantasy owners were looking for. Billingsley continues an erratic season and he was hit hard Friday night against the Cardinals. Lasting only 4 innings, Billingsley allowed 7 earned runs on 10 hits, 2 walks and did strike out a single batter. His ERA going into the game was high at 4.14 but it jumped up a half a run to 4.61. But there could be some good news as Billingsley hasn't really pitched as bad as all that. His FIP going into Friday was 3.40, indicating that he's been pitching better than his ERA would suggest. In fact, his LOB% is extremely low at 70% and with a BHIP of .337, he isn't get much defensive help. He's been inducing ground balls 47% of the time and he's been averaging over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. All of this is good. Billingsley biggest problem though seems to be that when he gives up hits, many of them go for extra bases. 8.2% of hits given up by Billingsley have gone for extra bases which is higher than the MLB average at 8.0% and much higher than his norm at 6.7%. Despite the poor outing on Friday, I have a good feeling about Billingsley. Perhaps some frustrated fantasy owner may be willing to deal him for a good value. Expect better things to come in the second half.
Matt Lindstrom (RP—Astros ) Well, he may not go about getting the prettiest saves with ease and grace, but he's mostly effective as Matt Lindstrom recorded his 22nd save of 2010. Lindstrom possesses a 2.76 ERA this season which is solid enough but his WHIP is a rather poor 1.48 and opponents are batting .279 off him. However, Lindstrom has a few things working to his benefit. First, his strikeout rate is solid at 7.6 per nine innings and by in large he has been successful at leaving men on base with a 81% strand rate. Second, he has only given up one home run this year and has been able to induce ground balls at a 51% rate. And lastly, the Astros are ranked 28th in runs scored. So the nice thing about a poor scoring team is that when they do win, it usually isn't by a large margin which affords several opportunities for the closer to convert saves. Like I said, Lindstrom's saves aren't pretty but he is in a position to rack them up even if he does it in a nail-biting fashion.
Derrek Lee (1B—Cubs) I'm a firm believer that the cream always rises to the top. And I'm still of the opinion that Derrek Lee, despite batting .236, will have a second half resurgence. He came out of the second half gate with a big game going 3-for-5, hitting his 11th home run of the season, but went 0-for-4 on Friday. It's been that kind of Jekyll and Hyde season for Lee. Looking back at 2009, Lee had a solid first half, followed by an outstanding second half where he hit .336. Now, Lee is doing more poorly than he did last season at this time, but he is still a very good hitter and continues to have a solid line drive rate. His main problem seems to be poor pitch recognition this year as he is swinging at pitches out of the strike zone 5% more often than he did last year and his EYE is way down at 0.55 compared to '09 where it was 0.70. If Lee can lay off the bad pitches and work the count more to his favor, we should see him look a lot like his old self in the second half. Fantasy owners should be patient a little longer because Lee can be an impact player when he gets going.
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Also you can follow Richard all season long on Twitter at@rsgross
