Kyle Drabek - Without actually seeing a guy and just reading his minor league statistics every five days, it's easy to occasionally misread a prospect's likely big league contributions, and after watching a bit of Kyle Drabek yesterday I feel like that's exactly what's happened with him. Drabek's minor league numbers weren't especially gaudy: his K numbers were decent but unspectacular (7.5/9 in 430 IP), his BB totals were a bit high (3.44/9), and while his HR totals were good it just didn't seem to be enough to vault him into the elite as a pitching prospect, although his velocity was significantly above average. What the minor league numbers didn't really account for was the groundball tendencies of Drabek, which when combined with the rest of his numbers cast him in a slightly different light. If yesterday is what we can expect from Drabek, he's a definite ROY candidate. All Drabek did to the Twins yesterday was limit them to one single to Denard Span (and three walks, one of them leading to a run), while striking out seven and allowing 12 groundballs and only 2 flyouts. I was extremely impressed, and with the Angels and Mariners next up for the youngster it's certainly possible for him to get on a roll before he enters divisional play against the Yanks in a few weeks. I've definitely upgraded my opinion of him just on this one outing, which may or may not be a wise idea, but he definitely appears to be a mid-rotation guy already at least.
A.J. Burnett - If yesterday was supposed to be evidence of A.J. Burnett's focus, color me unimpressed. Burnett did have his good stuff yesterday despite some sort of upper respiratory infection, which with the Yanks up 9-3 after 5 allowed Joe Girardi to remove him an inning earlier than he likely would have otherwise. However, and this is typical of A.J. Burnett in his Yankee tenure, even while having his good stuff he manages to throw a few cookies in there and give up three runs over those five frames. Six baserunners in five innings, good. Six K's in five innings, excellent. Three runs, not so much. You look at last year's strand% and say, "yeah, Burnett was unlucky last year....he'll bounce back to something between 4.25-4.50 for an ERA in 2011", which would be fine if you don't actually watch the guy. I'm not sold on A.J. having a HUGE bounceback, but I do think that he'll improve his K rate, his WHIP, and his win totals from last year, which can't help but lower his ERA to some extent. He has tremendous upside due to his still excellent raw stuff, but as usual with that sort of upside comes somewhat commensurate risk.
Zach Britton - With fellow lefty phenom Brian Matusz on the shelf with a strained intercostal for 3-6 weeks, Zach Britton is set to make his big league debut today against the Rays. The 23 year old Britton is a lefty groundballer with terrific velocity for both his style and his handedness, and he'd be an automatic must-have immediately if it weren't for his AL East home. Even so, Britton is worth a gamble in most formats right off the bat. First off, his extreme groundball tendencies will (hopefully) limit disastrous outings, and unlike most sinkerballers he has enough velocity to generate K rates at an average or slightly above clip. Secondly, Brad Bergesen is just a placeholder in the O's rotation, so if Britton performs adequately I'd expect him to remain there even after Matusz returns...Britton is clearly a potential front-end guy for the O's long-term. I wouldn't be afraid to throw him out there right off the bat, but whether you want to do that or not he absolutely must be picked up if he is available in your league.
Jason Vargas - Vargas had a very solid 2010 for the M's, and he started 2011 with an excellent outing against Oakland, holding the A's to 5 hits and a run over 6 2/3, striking out 6. The problem with Vargas is that last year's HR/FB rate (a major statistic for him, being a contact/flyball pitcher) was half of what it had been in his previous three campaigns....a league average rate there would have put his ERA back up into the high-4.00's. Most projections for Vargas peg him as a mid-rotation guy, but for me he is definitely a spot starter. His home ERA was two full runs better than his road ERA last year (2.86 vs. 4.85), which makes sense since he pitches in Safeco. I'm OK with starting him at home, at Oakland, and maybe at Minnesota. Anywhere else and I'm looking for other options.
Torii Hunter - Hunter walked and homered in game 2 yesterday, continuing his hot start to the season. Hunter will be 35 this year, and with his speed score (comprised of SB success, triple%, and run scoring%) dropping off the charts last year it's easy to forecast him to fall off the table here fairly soon. Aside from the speed numbers though, Hunter has been rather consistent offensively in what would be best characterized as a very slow decline over the past eight seasons. He did post the highest AVG of his career in 2009 and his best walk rate last year, but with R and SB dropping fairly steadily I don't think it's a stretch to call it a decline phase. Still, Hunter (in my experience) has a tendency to be underrated a bit because he has been at or near this level for so long, and an OF likely to give you 20-25 HRs, 90 or so RBIs while chipping in at least average totals everywhere else is certainly still worth having.
