Ted Lilly – Ted Lilly was cruising along just fine through four innings against the Giants Saturday until things fell apart in the 5th. With two outs, the lefty allowed three straight hits to Miguel Tejada , Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff before getting the hook. The final line: 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks and 1 BB looks bad but Lilly really just had that one tough stretch. He’s been consistently decent the past three seasons, posting strikeout rates in the 7.5-8.0 range and limiting his walk rate to fewer than 3.00 per game. Lilly does struggle with the gopher ball (career 1.35 HR/9) but he didn’t allow any long balls yesterday. He should be good for a sub- 4.00 ERA and around 165 strikeouts in 2011.
Carlos Zambrano – El Toro didn’t toss a dominant outing against the lowly Pirates on Saturday but he did pick up a quality start by pitching 6 innings and allowing 3 ER while walking 3 and striking out 4. He also didn’t throw a temper tantrum, so that’s exciting news for Cubs’ fans. Zambrano’s walk rate has increased the past 3 seasons, topping out at 4.79 in 2010. He also recorded the highest WHIP of his career with a 1.45 mark last season. Despite all this, Zambrano still posted a 3.33 ERA and 3.71 FIP. He’s never finished a season in the majors with an ERA above 4, so it’s good bet he’ll be a decent option for fantasy owners once again in 2011. Still, how long can Big Z keep outpitching his peripheral stats?
Garrett Jones – During the past 2 seasons, Garrett Jones has connected for exactly 21 HRs each year. The difference between the 2 seasons is that it took him just 314 ABs in 2009 to reach 21 dingers while it took him 592 ABs to meet the same mark last season. In total, Jones’ HR/FB rate dropped from 21% in 2009 to just 11% in 2010. The Pirates’ outfielder is off to a good start, power-wise, in 2011 as he crushed his first HR of the season on Saturday against the Cubs. Jones came onto the scene in 2009 when he posted a .274 ISO and finished with a batting line of .293/.372/.567. These numbers were partly aided by an unsustainable .323 BABIP. Last season, Jones’ BABIP dropped to .274, his ISO fell to .167 and the overall batting line was an unimpressive .247/.306/.414. He turns 30 this season and has never hit LHP (.210/.249/.381 career vs. southpaws), so don’t expect much more than 20 HRs and 80 RBI in 2011.
Tommy Hanson – There’s nothing worse for a fantasy owner than starting a pitcher who runs into a lengthy rain delay and has to get pulled when the game resumes. You’ve wasted a start and may lose a chance to pick up a win or quality start. That’s what happened to Tommy Hanson’s fantasy owners on Saturday as the young ace pitched just 3 2/3 innings before a rain delay ended his outing. His final line was anything but pretty: 4 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and just 1 K. He also allowed a home run to Rick Ankiel, which is never a good thing. Hanson had a solid first half in 2010, owning a 3.77 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. But the RHP really turned it up in the second half to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 7.7 K/9. Expect Hanson to get back on track in his next start on Thursday against Milwaukee.
Chase Headley – Chase Headley’s power has been dipping each of the past 3 seasons in an alarming way. Check out his ISO and SLG% numbers between 2008 and 2010:
Year ISO SLG%
2008 .151 .420
2009 .131 .392
2010 .111 .375
Considering he turns 27 this season and owned a .702 OPS last season, 2011 is a critical year for the Padres’ outfielder as he needs to start hitting the ball with some authority. Well, Headley got off to a good start with a 2-hit performance on Saturday against the Cardinals, including his first HR of 2011. Headley also picked up a double in San Diego’s first game so he already has a couple of extra base hits this season. For fantasy baseball purposes, don’t forget that Headley increased his steal totals from 10 in 2009 to 17 in 2010 so he should also provide some value on the bases. That said, I’d steer clear until you see Headley maintain this production for at least a few more games.
For daily fantasy advice and tips, follow me on Twitter.
