Nelson Cruz - Cruz popped his eighth homer of the month yesterday in the 14-5 loss to the Mets, but the excellent ISO that he's posting this year is offset by deterioration almost everywhere else in his profile. His plate discipline, contact rate, speed, and defense all seem to be worse in 2011, and the injury that he dealt with for most of May was relatively minor, so I don't think that should be identified as the culprit here. Cruz will be 31 next week, and although the power numbers are still elite-level, I'd be starting to think about what I could get for him in keeper leagues....considering the old Branch Rickey line about trading a guy a year too early rather than a year too late. Despite Cruz's power surge, his June OBP is still hovering under .300.
Justin Masterson - Masterson lost his sixth decision in a row yesterday despite A) failing to allow an earned run, B) allowing two runs or fewer for the fourth consecutive start, and C) tossing his sixth QS out of 10. Yes, the K rate is down again this year, quite possibly because he continues to work more and more off of his fastball. I'm most impressed by the continuing improvement in his control, the maintenance of a very solid GB%, and a nice velocity jump this season. Masterson is likely miscast as an ace in Cleveland, but I have no problem with him as a mid-rotation starter in most formats, and any further improvement in the Indian offense would have me upgrading him accordingly.
Alexi Ogando - Ogando lost his third straight yesterday, getting pounded by the Mets for eight hits and six runs (just three earned) over three innings. His control has remained solid, and his stuff is still very good, but there were plenty of warning signs before this little stretch, and we should expect a bit more of this down the road. Even after these last three outings, Ogando's BABIP is still about 100 points better than expected, and he hasn't allowed as many long balls as you'd expect given his FB% either. The K rate is down in average territory as well, and as if there weren't enough to worry about he's throwing almost 30% sliders, which isn't something most arms can handle in perpetuity. Ogando is still a better than average starter, but there's plenty to suggest that he's more of a mid-rotation guy with equal parts risk and upside than a potential front-liner.
Trevor Cahill - Normally I'd be jumping all over a guy with two straight years of K and GB rate increases, but like Drew the combination of a velocity drop and some fairly severe control issues this year have me pretty concerned, performance thus far notwithstanding. Cahill has shown the ability to maintain a BABIP lower than expected ever since his entry into the league, so potential regression there doesn't concern me very much, but the control issues worry me a great deal. His average K rate is nowhere near high enough to withstand his below average walk rate you would think, yet he's managed close to a 3.00 ERA for 47 starts now despite a FIP ERA of over 4.00. There has to be some movement in the negative direction coming, and I'd rather not be there for it, but he's certainly too good to sit. Therefore, he's definitely a sell-high guy to me.
Josh Reddick - With Carl Crawford and J.D. Drew continuing to struggle, Josh Reddick is starting to eat into their playing time a bit. Reddick singled, walked, and homered yesterday, and already has 5 XBH in just 26 AB's, which is only 4 fewer than Drew has in 189 AB's. Reddick has put up ISO's of .200 or better in each of his last 5 minor league campaigns, so any increase in playing time would make him an option in more and more formats. Right now he's still just a deep AL-only league option, but he's starting to merit watching for a reserve spot in deeper mixed leagues as well.
