Jayson Werth - Jayson Werth went 0-for-3 with a walk Saturday against the White Sox. After 3 straight seasons with ISOs of .225 or better, Werth's power numbers have dipped since arriving in Washington. He owns just a .175 ISO and .409 SLG% to go along with 10 HRs and 27 RBI. Compounding Werth's hitting woes is that his batting average has dropped from .296 in 2010 to just .234 thanks to a .269 BABIP this season. He's definitely not a .300 hitter - more like .265 - but the Nationals' outfielder has still been unlucky so far in 2011. One of the main reasons for Werth's power struggles is that he's hitting a lot more grounders this season (1.15 GB/FB) compared to his career mark (0.93 GB/FB). Based off his career stats, expect to see Werth's power and average bounce back as the season progresses. He won't get as many RBI opportunities thanks to hitting in the No. 1 or No. 2 spot in the Nationals lineup but he should score a decent number of runs and steal some bases.
Matt Cain - The Giants' right hander has been dominant at home this season and he continued that success on Saturday against the Indians. Cain fired 7 shutout innings against the Tribe, allowing 0 ER, walking 1 and striking out 6 to pick up his 7th win of the season. Cain now owns a sparkling 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and has struck out 89 in 106 innings. For the past 5 seasons, Cain has been one of the most consistently successful pitchers in baseball, posting ERAs ranging between 2.89 and 3.76 and FIPs between 3.13 and 3.78. Cain has also recorded strikeout rates in the 7.00 range since 2007. This season he's actually increased his chase rate to a career-best 32% and owns a career-best 3.07 K/BB. I sometimes get the impression Cain is an undervalued commodity in fantasy but he should be considered one of the better SP options in any league thanks to his reliable ERA, strikeout and WHIP numbers.
Juan Nicasio - The Rockies' rookie has impressed through his first 5 major league starts this season, posting a 3.94 FIP and 3.43 K/BB mark en route to a 2-1 record. Nicasio gets a ton of movement on his fastball and throws the 94 mph pitch nearly three-quarters of the time. He's also inducing a solid number of grounders (40%) and limiting the fly balls (34%) which is important considering Nicasio has already allowed 4 HRs in 28 innings of work. In AA this season, Nicasio owned a 10.00 strikeout rate and 2.22 ERA for Tulsa and has a 3.40 career minor league ERA in 471 innings. The 6-foot-3 right hander has high strikeout stuff which makes him very intriguing for keeper leagues and he's also worth a flier in 1-year leagues. However, he draws a tough matchup against the Yankees this afternoon.
Chris Narveson - One of the more frustrating pitchers in fantasy baseball this season, Chris Narveson faces a very favorable matchup against the Twins at home today. Narveson has maintained a sparkling 8.05 strikeout rate this season but is also walking 3.60 batters per game and has a 4.55 ERA. The good news is that Narveson's FIP is 3.44 and his xFIP is 3.42 thanks to a 45% GB rate and unusually low 68% strand rate. The biggest frustration for Narveson's fantasy owners is his inability to pitch deep into ball games. In his last 6 starts, he's only made it past the 6th inning twice and has given up at least 4 ER in 5 of those games. Narveson continues to have value in deep mixed and NL-only leagues thanks to those strikeouts but right now, he's a risky play until he rights the ship.
Jon Niese - Jon Niese pitched well against the Rangers on Saturday, yielding just 2 ER and striking out 7 in 5 2/3 but had to leave the game with a rapid heartbeat. Manager Terry Collins said Niese was pulled for precautionary reasons and that he shouldn't miss his next start. For the season, Niese now owns a 3.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and has 78 strikeouts in 98 innings. With his success so far in 2011, Niese is worth starting against most opponents, especially at Citi Field where he has recorded a 3.26 ERA (compared to 4.22 mark on the road). Niese has also done a much better job limiting HRs this season compared to 2010, posting a 0.68 HR/9 rate in 2011 and a 1.04 HR/9 in 2010. Assuming Niese remains on track to make his next scheduled start, he'll face the Tigers on the road.
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