Ryan Dempster SP (CHC) - My opinion on Dempster remains unchanged: buy low candidate. It may be taking longer than owners would like, but I'm confident Dempster will turn it around. Believe it or not, Dempster currently is posting the best xFIP of his career at 3.38. His 8.44 K/9, 3.26 BB/9 and 46.4 GB% are all in line (actually slightly better when grouped - see xFIP) with what Dempster has posted the past three seasons in which he posted ERA's of 2.96/3.65/3.85 and win totals of 17/11/15. Simply put luck just hasn't been on Dempster's side. His .326 BABIP is 24 points above his career mark, HR/FB% of 16.7% is 6 percentage points above his career mark and 65.2 LOB% is 6.5 percentage points below his career mark.
Wandy Rodriguez SP (HOU) - What to do with Wandy long term? Well, for now he's in between a hold and a sell for me depending on what the market bears in your particular league. A solid K/BB ratio of 3.31 (actually a career best) and ok 42.5 GB% means he won't blow up and could sustain his 3.41 ERA which is solid. However, what concerns me is a downward trending K rate : K/9 of 8.58/8.45/8.22/7.23 over the past four seasons. Meanwhile, his BB/9 (seemingly out of nowhere) is at a career best 2.18. There's a chance Rodriguez's dip in strikeout ability is legitimate and is being offset by only temporary improved control. Bottom line: I don't expect Wandy to completely blow up, but if the current K rate holds with an increased walk rate he could be more of a 4 ERA pitcher than a 3.5 one.
Jordan Schafer OF (ATL) - Schafer went 1-4 last night with 2 runs scored and 2 steals. Filling in as the Braves' leadoff man, Schafer has accumulated 9 runs and 5 steals in 14 games. He's someone to target as a short term solution if you are desperate for speed, but I think he hurts fantasy owners in the long run. Schafer will post a very bad batting average for three reasons. First of all, he has no pop. He has posted just a .055 ISO in his 14 games and had a .084 one in 195 plate appearances in 2009. In his last three minor league stops Schafer has posted ISO's of .048 (72 PA's at AA in 2010), .053 (209 PA's at AAA in 2010) and .067 (187 PA's at AAA this year). Secondly, Schafer does not make up for his lack of power by utilizing his speed and putting the ball on the ground as his career FB rate at the ML level is 40.3%. Considering the lack of power, most of those fly balls are just harmless outs. Thirdly, I'm not a believer in the 1.13 EYE Schafer has posted in 14 games. His track record indicates he'll strike out too much (over 20% of the time), and that was very apparent in his first go around at the Majors when he struck out 37.7% of the time.
Rickie Weeks 2B (MLW) - Weeks went 2-5 with a double last night, scoring once and driving in one. For those of you who think Weeks' power will fall off, think again. He has a career ISO of .178 with an even better 3 year run: .245/.195/.203. Likewise his career HR/FB% is a solid 13.9 mark but has been even better as of late: 19.1/17.3/15.9. Weeks has tremendous bat speed, and swings aggressively while keeping pitchers honest. The data confirms this approach as Weeks' career chase rate is much better than the league average at 21.1%.
Ryan Braun OF (MLW) - Ryan Braun hit his 14th homer of the season last night, and it shouldn't come as a surprise to owners that Braun is on pace for his highest HR total since 2008. The last two seasons Braun hit a solid 32 and 25 homers respectively, but these totals were actually slightly deflated as Braun's FB% was below his career average both years and his HR/FB% below average last season. This year, Braun has improved his FB% from 34.9 to 38.1 (more in line with his career 38.8 mark). Likewise, his HR/FB% has improved from 14% to 18.9% (more in line with his career 17.9 mark). Look for Braun to toy with 40+ homers this year.
