Matt Garza - In his second start since coming off the DL, Matt Garza pitched well against the Phillies on Saturday, yielding just 1 ER in 6 innings while striking out 4 and walking 3. After a rough start to the season, Garza has now lowered his ERA to 3.84 to go along with 75 strikeouts in 67 innings. The opportunity to buy low on Garza is closing fast now that his ERA is under 4.00. He entered yesterday's outing with a 2.21 FIP to go along with a 0.30 HR rate and 3.09 K/BB. The right hander has been unlucky in dealing with a .364 BABIP and 63% strand rate and should see his ERA fall once those numbers steady themselves. Garza should face the Brewers in his next start.
Ryan Howard - What's wrong with Ryan Howard? After going 1-for-5 Saturday against the Cubs, Howard is now batting just .238 in 244 ABs compared to a career .276 BA. The biggest culprit for Howard's low BA is a deflated BABIP of just .286 which is 46 points below his 2010 mark of .332. The past 2 seasons Howard's BABIP has been in the .320-.330 range and his BA has been in the .270s. However, in 2011 and back in 2008, Howard's BABIP dropped into the .280s and his average subsequently fell into the .240-.250 range. Howard's power numbers remain in line with his 2010 campaign (.230 ISO, .469 SLG% in '11/.229 ISO, .505 SLG% in '10), meaning he should once again reach the 30-HR plateau but will likely never be a 40-HR hitter again. Until Howard improves his 17% line drive (which is 6% lower than his career mark), his BABIP will remain under .300 and his average will remain lower than expected.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Ubaldo Jimenez enters his start today against the Dodgers as one of the more intriguing fantasy SPs in the league. After a very inconsistent first 9 starts (when he posted a 5.86 ERA), Jimenez has allowed just 2 ER in 16 innings of work during his past 2 outings, striking out 15 and walking 0. Fresh off these past 2 great starts, it's time for Jimenez's owners to decide whether to sell high or hang onto Colorado's ace. The biggest reason in favor of selling high is that Jimenez's fastball has dropped from 96 mph the past 2 seasons to just 93 this season. This drop in velocity has enabled opposing hitters to make 4% more contact than in past seasons. However, Jimenez still owns a solid 8.10 strikeout rate and his FIP (3.45) is significantly lower than his ERA (4.73). He's also been dealing with an abnormally low 63% strand rate which should improve in the coming weeks. While I don't see Jimenez posting an ERA in the low 3.00s from here on out, I think he can maintain an 8.00 strikeout rate and keep the ERA around 3.50. That makes him a solid No. 2 starter in 12/14 team leagues moving forward, which means if you do trade him, you need to get some high-end talent in return.
Jordan Zimmermann - One of the pleasant surprises in the National League so far this season, Jordan Zimmermann draws a very attractive matchup when he faces the Padres in Petco today. After allowing 8 HRs in 31 innings last season, Zimmermann has lowered his walk rate to just 0.36 in 74 innings this season. He owns a solid 3.39 ERA but his FIP is an even more impressive 2.69 thanks to a low strand rate (65%). He's also improved his K/BB mark from 2.70 in 2010 to 3.40 in 2011. Zimmermann has utilized his slider much more often this season (+13% compared to '10) which has helped him up his chase rate by 6%. Aside from a lower strikeout rate, Zimmermann is doing all the right things and is a top 50 SP with a ton of value in keeper formats.
Todd Helton - Colorado's first baseman, who didn't start Saturday against the Dodgers, has experienced a renaissance so far this season, posting an ISO (.211) over .200 for the first time since 2005 while also lowering his strikeout rate by 9% compared to last season. He's cut the whiffs by making significantly more contact on pitches outside the strike zone (+9% in '11 compared to '10) and when you hit line drives at almost a 25% clip, a decent number of those extra balls in play are going to land for hits which helps explain Helton's .322 BA. So can Helton keep it up? He did hit .325 in 2009 which wasn't all that long ago and he also maintained a BABIP of .348 that season, meaning it's not crazy to say Helton can maintain his current .333 BABIP mark. I don't think that Helton can keep up his current power numbers, based off his ISO and SLG% rates the past few seasons. That said, he can be a productive backup first baseman in 10-12 team leagues and a fringe starter in even deeper leagues.
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