Today's featured daily fantasy site is Draftstreet. Click HERE for a first time deposit bonus.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). As a result these recommendations often focus on value. By reading the notes below you'll be able to identify not only value options but potential weak pitchers to exploit. If a player is not touched on, it doesn't mean they're not a good play. We have limited space and assessing value across all the sites is a bit subjective. Please feel free to e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: A few games have shaky forecasts early on.
Danger Zone (60+% chance): MIL-MIN (T-Storms)
Watch (30+% chance): NYY-NYM (Isolated), ARZ-TEX (Scattered), HOU-COL (Isolated)
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Rosario has been super-human in his career at home against LHP (.347/.396/.816, .505 wOBA) and he gets to face Erik Bedard who has given up a .337 wOBA and 1.25 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years. Bedard has especially been struggling against RHB's this year allowing a .409 wOBA and 2.51 HR/9. I didn't think it was possible for someone to unseat Buster Posey against a LHP as our top play of the day but Rosario's matchup is too enticing to pass up.
Buster Posey (SF) - Posey earns a mention simply because of his history against LHP. He's hit .349/.408/.639 (.437 wOBA) in his career against LHP. The Giants face Tommy Milone who has some mild reverse splits (.312 wOBA to RHB, .329 wOBA to LHB) and the matchup comes in San Francisco a difficult run-scoring environment, but Posey's long history of dominance against LHP earns him a spot in our top plays section.
Brian McCann (ATL) - McCann falls somewhere between top play and value based on his $7,802 price-tag on Draftstreet today. McCann has done nothing but rake since making his late debut this season. He's hit .281/.354/.614 and the peripherals (0.78 EYE, 20.4% LD Rate, career best 90.8% contact rate) all support the strong start. McCann has been incredible against RHP so far (.506 wOBA) and while we're obviously dealing with a small sample it goes to show how dominant he's been against righties. On Wednesday he'll get to face Esmil Rogers who has allowed a .371 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years including a 12% BB% and 24% LD Rate. McCann is probably the best combination of upside and value at the catcher position on Draftstreet today.
Yasmani Grandal (SD) - Grandal went 1-4 in his return to big league action last night and on Wednesday he gets the chance to face Joe Saunders. I mentioned in yesterday's notes that Grandal was great against LHP last year (.403 wOBA) and Joe Saunders has yielded a .365 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years. Grandal isn't available on all the sites yet but where he is available, he's generally pretty cheap. While the performance against LHP came in a pretty limited sample (52 AB's), I'm willing to take my chances with a RHB priced near the bare minimum against Joe Saunders. Grandal on sites where he's available looks like one of the stronger value plays today.
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - I'll be honest, yesterday was refreshing. Everyone in MLB was playing except for the DBacks and Rangers and as a result I didn't even have to be tempted into writing about Miguel Montero. Unfortunately the matchup with Justin Grimm (.346 wOBA allowed to LHB's, 23.5% LD Rate) has sucked me right back in. On Draftstreet Miguel Montero is priced at just $4,001 which opens up a lot of cap room at other positions. For his career he's hit .274/.354/.452 (.348 wOBA) against RHP and the 9.5 total for the Rangers-DBacks game is the 2nd highest on the board behind HOU-COL.
Kelly Shoppach (SEA) - Shoppach has routinely crushed LHP in his career (.263/.355/.504, .371 wOBA) and on Wednesday he'll get a crack at Eric Stults. Stults has allowed a .323 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years and in particular struggled limiting line drives (22.6% LD Rate allowed). Shoppach is more of an all-or-nothing power bat (30% K%, .241 ISO) so Stults ability to keep the ball in the park (0.74 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years) is a bit of a deterrent, but on a site like Draftstreet where the pricing is so tough Shoppach's $4,052 price-tag is a value.
Jason Castro (HOU) - Castro, as always against RHP, is a strong value as well if you can find the right price. His price has SOARED on Draftstreet due to the recent hot streak and he's unplayable at over $9,000. On other sites where pricing is slow take advantage of a favorable matchup with Tyler Chatwood who has allowed a .377 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years.
Albert Pujols (LAA) - A quick look at wOBA against LHP over the last few years tells the tale of a player in decline: 2013 - .276, 2012 - .382, 2011 - .394, 2010 - .447. Still Pujols deserves a lot better than he's earned this year as his 0.83 EYE, 29.7% LD Rate, and .209 ISO against LHP shouldn't result a .276 wOBA. A .200 BABIP against lefties is really dragging things down and with such an incredible LD Rate it doesn't make much sense. Pujols gets to face Chris Capuano who has yielded a .342 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years, including a lofty 1.34 HR/9 mark. Pujols also has the advantage of tremendous career numbers against Capuano. Typically we don't pay much attention to PvB for a number of reasons (small samples, out-dated samples, etc) but we will on occasion highlight some of the outliers. Pujols has gone 21-38 with 9 XBH's and a 5:3 BB:K Ratio in his career against Capuano. Less than 10 of those AB's have come in the last three years, so much of this sample was built when Pujols was the best hitter in the game. Still he's been elite against LHP the last few years and his peripherals suggest he should continue to be elite against lefties this year. He's a strong top play on Wednesday.
Freddie Freeman (ATL) - I'm gambling a bit here by placing Freddie Freeman ahead of both Joey Votto and Prince Fielder who are superior against RHP to Freeman, but I think the matchup with Esmil Rogers and the rest of the rag-tag Blue Jays bullpen warrants it. Freeman has been good against RHP since 2011 posting a .361 wOBA but it pales in comparison to the work done by Fielder (.418 wOBA) and Votto (.427 wOBA), which is why recommending him above the two is a bit risky. But here's why I like it. The Blue Jays have allowed 41 runs in their last 6 games (6.8 runs/game) and their pen is just GASSED. It feels like a good spot for the Braves lefties to get extended looks at Rogers and on a site like Draftstreet that more heavily rewards Runs/RBI's than on-base skills, I think Freeman is my preferred play over Votto and Prince.
Joey Votto (CIN) - Votto and his career .425 wOBA against RHP gets to face Justin Masterson who has surrendered a .340 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years. Masterson does a good job of keeping the ball in the park and with the series shifting to Progressive Field Votto's HR potential dips a bit on Wednesday. He's better on a site that rewards OBP more favorably than Draftstreet does (0.75 pts for a BB, 1 pt for a 1B) as he's likely to get on base a few times, but the limited upside pushes him down my expensive plays list.
Mitch Moreland (TEX) - Moreland has been pretty expensive on Draftstreet for a while now because they take into account his significant splits (.347 wOBA vs. RHP since 2011) which have gotten even better this year (.403 wOBA vs. RHP), but on Wednesday he's just $6,304 which is modestly below an average hitting option (I think of $7,000 as an "average hitter" on Draftstreet). Moreland gets to face Brandon McCarthy who has allowed just a .310 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years, but he is a RHP and the game is in Texas with a total of 9.5. Moreland typically hits in the middle of the lineup and with his dominance against RHP this year it's hard not to take him at this price. I consider him an above average play on Wednesday so on sites like DS where he's priced below average I think he's one of the stronger values.
Adam LaRoche (WSH) - LaRoche has been scorching hot in May (.341/.422/.648) which follows a pattern that LaRoche has held much of his career. He's a slow starter in April and heats up as the weather warms up. He'll take on Chris Tillman on Wednesday who has some modest reverse splits (.331 wOBA allowed to RHB, .326 wOBA allowed to LHB's over the last three years), but in general is very homer-prone as he's allowed 1.41 HR/9 in his career. Much of LaRoche's game is built on power against RHP (.221 ISO) and his $6,646 price-tag is very friendly on Draftstreet. He and Moreland appear to be the top two 1B values today at Draftstreet.
Brandon Moss (OAK) - Moss is always one of our favorites against RHP because he's posted a .396 wOBA against RHP since the beginning of 2011. He gets to face a RHP in Tim Lincecum who has been pretty good against lefties the last few years (.306 wOBA, 48% GB Rate), which makes the overall matchup a bit less attractive than Moreland's matchup. Still, any time you can get Moss priced as a below average 1B option against a RHP, he makes for a nice value. His $6,710 tag on Draftstreet today qualifies.
Carlos Pena (HOU) - Pena has posted a .344 wOBA against RHP since 2011 and Tyler Chatwood has given up a .377 wOBA to LHB's. The game is in Colorado and the total is 10. Pena is priced at just $5,580 so if you're looking for salary relief he's not a bad option.
Keep an eye on: Eric Hinske has a career .340 wOBA against RHP and the Diamondbacks will need to use a DH tonight in Texas. Hinske is under $4,000 on Draftstreet and could find himself in an enviable lineup spot in a high-total game. Travis Hafner can also be a cheap 1B option on some sites and I love his matchup with Jeremy Hefner. On Draftstreet he's expensive and only U eligible so he has less value, but if you play on other sites make sure to compare prices on Hafner. I like him more than LaRoche and Moreland if priced similarly.
Robinson Cano (NYY) - After a couple of days where the top play section at 2B was muddled we have an obvious choice tonight. Robinson Cano is home against a RHP and in those scenarios this year he has a .434 wOBA. In those scenarios last year he posted a .490 wOBA. Jeremy "Hugh" Hefner has allowed a .384 wOBA to LHB's in his brief career including a startling 1.75 HR/9. Cano's price on Draftstreet is tough to fit in ($11,781) but I'm inclined to use him if the weather holds up tonight. The matchup is dreamy.
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Jason Kipnis is priced somewhere between top play and best value on most sites which leaves him in an awkward position for daily gamers. If you're spending at 2B it's probably on Cano and if you're saving money you're probably dipping down further than Kipnis. Bronson Arroyo REALLY struggles against LHB's (.362 wOBA, 1.8 HR/9) making Kipnis an excellent option. Kipnis has a solid .344 wOBA in his career against RHP.
Jedd Gyorko (SD) - Gyorko has posted an impressive .379 wOBA against LHP in his brief career thanks to an enormous .277 ISO. He'll take on homer-prone Joe Saunders who has allowed 1.25 HR/9 to RHB's over the last three years along with a .365 wOBA. Gyorko is priced as an average 2B option Draftstreet and would be one of the higher upside bargains you can find at 2B if not paying for Cano.
Matt Carpenter (STL) - Carpenter remains a go-to play against RHP and on Wednesday he'll get a crack at Luis Mendoza who has allowed a .354 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years. Carpenter has been so solid in his career against righties, hitting .302/.388/.444, and he leads off against them. He's priced fairly on Draftstreet ($8,334) so there isn't a ton of value there, but on other sites he's considerably cheaper and a much better value option.
Daniel Murphy (NYM) - Murphy has posted a really solid .350 wOBA against RHP since 2011 and the short porch in RF at Yankee Stadium gives him a bit more upside than he typically has when playing in New York. David Phelps will take the mound for the Yankees and while Phelps has good strikeout rates he also has issues with the long-ball (1.33 HR/9 allowed to RHB's last three years). Murphy is priced at $7,465 on Draftstreet which is a fair price for the Mets left-hander.
Additional 2B Notes:
Jose Altuve is priced fairly on most sites and hits in the middle of the lineup in a game with a total of 10, however he has a .296 wOBA against RHP in his brief career and as a result I'm less enthused about him as an option on Wednesday. DJ LeMahieu has been getting some time at 2nd in the Rockies batting order against LHP and if that's the case he becomes a really nice value play across the industry. On Draftstreet he's a bit more expensive relative to the rest of the 2B options than most sites but even at $6,149 I'd consider him as a play. I expect the Rockies to be one of, if not the, highest scoring teams in play on Wednesday. Rickie Weeks is perpetually cheap on Draftstreet and gets a good matchup against Sam Deduno who really struggles with RHB's but Weeks has been a mess against RHP and the game has severe weather concerns.
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - Much like Robinson Cano Wednesday figures to be a great day to spend on Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo has posted a career .409 wOBA at home against LHP (.324/.408/.550) and his opponent on Wednesday, Erik Bedard, has really struggled against RHB's this year allowing a .409 wOBA. Tulo is expensive on Draftstreet ($10,519) but I think he's money well spent at a thin position.
Didi Gregorious (ARZ) - Gregorious' early season production against RHP (.406/.461/.710) seems so out of character with his minor league performances that I'm not entirely sure how to evaluate it. That being said, Justin Grimm does struggle with LHB's (.346 wOBA allowed) and specifically with LD's allowing 23% LD Rate. Gregorious is posting a 24.6% LD Rate against righties and hits 2nd in a DBacks lineup that figures to be one of the higher scoring offenses. At $7,189 on Draftstreet he's pretty reasonably priced and looks like the top value play.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) -Rollins has been better against RHP (.332 wOBA) than LHP (.321 wOBA) in his career and has typically been better at home as well. He draws John Lackey who has allowed a .363 wOBA to LHB's over the last three years but has been really good against them this year (.269 wOBA). I'm sort of on the Lackey bandwagon that he's rejuvenated so I probably won't deploy Rollins much on Wednesday but his $5,449 price-tag on Draftstreet is enticing.
Nick Franklin (SEA) - Franklin got his first major league start last night and I expect he'll draw his 2nd on Wednesday. He's a switch-hitter who has shown excellent command of the strike zone along with gap power and occasional speed at the minor league level. He was 11-33 this year against LHP with a .860 OPS and on Wednesday he'll face Eric Stults who has yielded a .323 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years. Franklin doesn't possess a big upside but at $5,824 he's one of the friendlier bargains at a thin SS position.
Ian Desmond (WSH) - Desmond will get to square off against Orioles RHP Chris Tillman on Wednesday night in what figures to be a bit of a boom-or-bust matchup. Tillman allows 1.47 HR/9 to RHB's along with a .331 wOBA. Desmond is not a particularly adept hitter (.320 career wOBA) but he's been neutral against RHP and LHP. He hits in the middle of the order and for just $5,965 he deserves a mention as well.
Other SS Notes:
Jurickson Profar would get written up in this space if I had confidence Ron Washington would bat him 2nd in the lineup. We've seen it against LHP but not RHP. If Profar is hitting 2nd instead of 9th, or out of the lineup entirely, I think he's a fine value play as well.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - He almost belongs in a category of his own at this point. As always with Miggy, the only issue is price. At $13,925, I think he's unplayable against a good RHP in AJ Burnett. If you're spending on Wednesday spend it on Cano or Tulowitzki, I don't think Miggy is the guy worth spending on. He's still the top play at 3B, but in salary cap games we have to be aware of price and his price is a challenge. Stick to the value plays on Wednesday.
David Wright (NYM) - Wright's price is down slightly on a few sites (Draftstreet included) and while this play goes against much of the numbers, I do believe in it. Yes Wright is better against LHP (.421 wOBA) than RHP (.367 wOBA) and yes David Phelps has been great against righties (.276 wOBA) and below average against lefties (.335 wOBA). On the surface it's not the ideal matchup to exploit just a small price drop in Wright, however, I think the short porch in Yankee Stadium helps get Wright back to his best swing, which is when he's using the whole field. In addition Phelps pitches almost exclusively away to RHB's with hard stuff (Cutters, Fastballs). This should give Wright a few shots at the short porch in RF. I know the numbers don't entirely back-up the recommendation here, but I think Wright's ability to use the whole field allows him to matchup better than the average RHB against Phelps and I think he has a good night tonight.
Nolan Arenado (COL) - Arenado is just another in the long list of Rockies RHB's we like using tonight against Erik Bedard. Arenado has struggled against LHP early on (.206/.206/.412) but in the minors he always hit LHP well and I think he benefits from a great run scoring environment around him tonight. At $7,256 he's a bit pricey for his value alone but I think the supporting cast and run expectancy environment pushes him to a fair value at that price. On many other sites Arenado is far cheaper and a much stronger value.
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - Sandoval's price is way down on Draftstreet ($5,668) and while he's been better in his career against RHP (.365 wOBA) than LHP (.333 wOBA) I think the price is too cheap to ignore. He hits in the middle of the Giants lineup and right in front of Buster Posey who we've already touched on can really mash lefties. For under 6k, Sandoval is a real bargain.
Juan Francisco (ATL) - Francisco should draw the start against RHP Esmil Rogers. Francisco has hit .271/.320/.478 against RHP this year with a line that is heavily driven by power. Francisco is a bit of a boom-or-bust play but with the Jays struggling rotation and the weather heating up in Atlanta I think this is a good spot for the Braves tonight. At just under $5k on Draftstreet, I think Francisco is an excellent bargain.
Additional 3B notes:
I do like Eric Chavez quite a bit tonight but his price is high on our featured site and its risen sharply across the industry. If you can find some stale pricing on him he's an excellent play. Chase Headley is universally too cheap even though he hits RHP better than LHP. The price didn't stand out as much to me on Draftstreet, but a number of other sites he's quite enticing. Jordan Pacheco is another name worth searching out prices on as he's hit .333/.383/.436 in his career against LHP and been particularly strong at home posting a .412 wOBA in his career at home against LHP. Pacheco is priced appropriately on Draftstreet, but on other sites there may be opportunities for value.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) - Typically I'd rather take Carlos Gonzalez against a RHP (career .391 wOBA) than a LHP (career .341 wOBA) but in Coors Field it doesn't seem to matter for CarGo. He's posted a .323/.373/.545 line against LHP in his career at home (.393 wOBA) and I don't expect Erik Bedard to last very long against the Rockies opening up plenty of AB's against RHP. Gonzalez is priced as the top OF option today at Draftstreet ($11,788) and I've got him ranked as my #1 option. I probably won't pay up for him on Draftstreet where pricing is so tough and I'm more inclined to pay up for positional scarcity but on other softer salary sites Gonzalez is a fine play to fit in.
Mike Trout (LAA) - Same deal as yesterday when I failed Mike Trout. That's right Mike Trout didn't fail me, I failed him by selecting him on a rare off day. Today will be better! Trout has actually been better against RHP (.400 wOBA) than LHP (.371 wOBA) in his career but most of that is BABIP driven (.376 vs. RHP, .300 vs. LHP). Trout actually hits for more power (.242 ISO vs. .233 ISO) and has a higher BB Rate (11.8%) and EYE (0.58) against lefties. Chris Capuano has surrendered a .342 wOBA to RHB's over the last three years and has been susceptible to the long-ball (1.34 HR/9).
Additional Top Plays to Spend on: Ryan Braun (MIL), Bryce Harper (WSH), Dexter Fowler (COL), Michael Cuddyer (COL), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Justin Upton (ATL)
Carlos Beltran/Matt Holliday (STL) - Both players are modestly cheap on Draftstreet today and from a quick check across the industry neither is expensive anywhere I looked. Luis Mendoza is much worse to LHB's (.354 wOBA) than RHB's (.321 wOBA) so I prefer Beltran over Holliday if price is neutral, but I like them both. Holliday has no splits difference in his career posting a .395 wOBA against RHP and a .390 wOBA against LHP which makes him a strong value on Drafstreet at just under $8k. Beltran is priced slightly higher (and appropriately so given the splits advantage) at $8,290. I think both are strong value plays.
Brett Gardner (NYY) - Gardner is heating up in May (.278/.343/.467) and he'll get to face Jeremy Hefner who as we touched on is really struggling to get lefties out (.384 wOBA allowed). With Gardner swinging it well and hitting atop one of the stronger scoring lineups on Wednesday he makes for a nice value play even at the slightly above average $7,458 price-tag on Draftstreet.
Gerardo Parra/Jason Kubel (ARZ) - By now I'm sure you've caught on that we're partial to ARZ LHB's tonight against Justin Grimm. With the DH in play there should be no concerns about Kubel being in the lineup so it simply comes down to a matter of where he hits. If he's in the middle of the lineup (4th-6th) he's deserving of the slightly higher price Draftstreet has tagged him with ($7,122) compared to Parra ($6,653). If he's hitting 7th or 8th, I'd play Parra over him. Since 2011, Kubel has posted a .357 wOBA against RHP while Parra isn't far behind with a .339 wOBA. The extra PA's and Parra's speed help round out the difference in fantasy points between the two making them near equivalents. Both players are strong values not only on Draftstreet but across the industry on Wednesday night.
Carlos Quentin (SD) - He's not a value on Draftstreet which recognizes his split dominance but on other sites he very well may be one of the best value plays today. Quentin has hit .287/.387/.526 against LHP since 2011 which is good for a .396 wOBA. Joe Saunders stinks against RHB's and particularly struggles with RH power. Quentin is a terrific play on Wednesday on most sites. His $9k+ salary on Draftstreet make him a challenging fit.
Other Potential Value Plays: Jon Jay (STL), David Murphy (TEX), Josh Willingham (MIN), Lucas Duda (NYM), Ichiro Suzuki (NYY), Denard Span (WSH), Andre Ethier (LAD), BJ Upton (ATL), Chris Denorfia (SD)
Under-priced Star OF's to Target: Matt Kemp (LAD), Jay Bruce CIN), Shin Soo Choo (CIN)
John Lackey (BOS) - Lackey has looked like the old Lackey this year as he's posted a 2.94 FIP and 3.03 xFIP. He's posting a career best strikeout rate (24.2%) while also posting a career best 53.6% GB Rate. Much of the success can be attributed to Lackey throwing his slider more. On average Lackey has thrown the slider just 10% of the time but this year he's using it 28% of the time. The matchup with the Phillies is a nice one to exploit without Chase Utley around. The Phillies are 29th in wOBA against RHP with a .291 mark and much of that includes the great work done by Utley. Remove him and they're a far worse offense. Add in the fact the game will be played in a NL park which removes one extra batter Lackey needs to worry about and he's my top value SP of the day.
Lance Lynn (STL) - Lynn represents the 2nd biggest favorite pitching today (-200) and he gets to go against a Royals offense that is 27th in wOBA against RHP with a .296 mark. Lynn's biggest problem is patient/power LHB's that really make him work. He walks over 12% of the LHB's he faces and serves up 1.2 HR/9. The Royals only really have one of those in Alex Gordon as Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas' development have been severely curtailed. As a result I think Lynn is one of the higher upside value plays today against a slumping Royals offense that will also lose an extra hitter playing in an NL Park.
David Phelps (NYY) - Phelps is another really nice value option on Draftstreet with a $9,970 price-tag. Phelps has started to settle into a groove as a starter, posting 6 or more fantasy points in his last three starts. The Mets rank 24th in wOBA against RHP and strike out almost 24% of the time, making them a perfect fit for Phelps high strikeout rate. In addition they have just an average BB Rate which is where Phelps really gets himself into trouble. Any Yankees starter is a bit risky at home because of the way the park plays but Phelps has actually been modestly better at home this year (3.25 xFIP) than on the road.
Roberto Hernandez (TB)/Tyler Chatwood (COL) - These two are Draftstreet specific references as their cost on Draftstreet is such that I think you almost have to use one, if not both, on Wednesday.
Tyler Chatwood is priced at $7,392 and he faces an Astros offense that ranks 28th in wOBA against RHP while also striking out 26.4% of the time. Chatwood has been a SP we've always picked on but to his credit he's improved his GB Rate dramatically this year and found some success along with it. He's undeserving of a current 1.90 ERA and will experience regression at some point but the 3.81 xFIP is enough that I'm willing to roll the dice against a very weak Astros lineup. Chatwood has had at least 5.90 DS points in his last 3 starts (@SF, SF, @LAD) all against offenses much better than the Astros.
Roberto Hernandez is priced just above Chatwood at $8,810 and he gets to face an opponent just worse than Chatwood in the Marlins who rank last in wOBA against RHP with a .268 mark. Hernandez has been awful of late but he has a 3.68 xFIP that suggests he's deserved better than his current 5.73 ERA. Hernandez's biggest problem is he allows 1.85 HR/9 and well the Marlins have just 16 HR's against RHP all season. If you take away the HR's, Hernandez is a pretty good pitcher and in the Marlins case they rarely hit HR's, I think this is a nice matchup for Hernandez and while I wouldn't consider him on most multi-SP sites, the tough pricing on Draftstreet has me looking his way.
Additional SP Notes:
Jordan Zimmermann and AJ Burnett are fine plays but they're both going against top offenses today and on a multi-SP site with tough pricing I'd rather not pay up for what is one of their tougher matchups this year. Chris Tillman is an interesting boom-or-bust play because the Nationals offense was struggling without Bryce Harper and Tillman can nab some strikeouts. Eric Stults might be able to navigate his way through a depleted Seattle offense but I struggle trusting him even in a friendly pitching environment.
Anibal Sanchez (DET) - Sanchez is #2 in all of baseball in xFIP this year with a 2.45 mark. He trails only Yu Darvish. His name doesn't carry that type of performance but his metrics support all the great work he's done to this point. The Pirates strikeout 22% of the time against RHP and have been in a real strikeout funk this week against the Tigers. Sanchez is the one SP I'd be most willing to pay up for tonight. The only concern is he's coming off of a 130 pitch effort and that concern is enough for me to look to value options on multi-SP sites.