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Fantasy Baseball Projections
Player Commentary

 
David Regan
Jul 3, 2014

Carlos Martinez (RP-STL) - As a Martinez owner in a couple keeper leagues, I was very worried that the Cardinals were going to turn him into a full-time reliever this year. With Trevor Rosenthal closing, Martinez would have had little value outside of holds leagues, but now that he's in the rotation, lots of value. Martinez tossed five innings of one-run ball Thursday to beat the Giants, allowing five hits with a 6:1 K:BB. He's yet to go more than five innings in a start since joining the rotation on June 16 (four starts), but as a starter, Martinez has a 2.95 ERA and 18:9 K:BB in 18.1 innings. The walks are a bit high, making the one walk he had Thursday a good sign indeed. He's averaging a whopping 97 mph with his fastball, but in a starting role, that will be more in the 95 range going forward. If Martinez can further develop his secondary stuff, he should be a guy who can manage a K/9 in the 10 range. Just tons of go-forward upside.

Matt Carpenter (3B-STL) - With a .381 OBP, Carpenter is still one of the league's better leadoff men, but he's taken a slight step back this year. A .290/.381/.396 slash compared to last year's .318/.392/.481 certainly qualifies as slight regression, particularly in the power department with an ISO decline from .163 to .106. Carpenter did have a pair of doubles Thursday and he's hit in eight straight, so hopefully there will be a bit more pop in his future in the second half. With 11 HR a year ago, Carpenter already has displayed below average power for a third baseman, and with four so far in 2014, we were hoping for improvement into the 15 HR range this year. His #1 priority is to get on base and he's doing that, but hopefully some of those 21 doubles begin to travel a bit further.

Nolan Arenado (3B-COL) - If you're looking for a third baseman, Arenado is back after missing more than 30 games due to a fractured finger. He'll return to a .305/.333/.489 batting line. We would certainly prefer to see his 4.4% BB% improve, as that number was just 4.5% last year, so not a ton of progress in the 23 year-old's plate discipline year over year. That's something that can certainly be learned, but I'm not expecting it to skyrocket this year, and he's probably not going to hit .305 the rest of the way, but third base is relatively thin this year, so he's worth a look in most formats.

Addison Reed (RP-ARI) - Reed received a vote of confidence from manager Kirk Gibson Wednesday, so it's time to explore other Arizona closer options. A vote of confidence one day, a blown save the next, and before you know it, Reed could be yanked as the team's closer. Reed though has excellent peripherals with a 10.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. The one that isn't so excellent? - 2.1 HR/9. Too many flyballs (0.71 GB/FB) in a hitter's park has been Reed's undoing so far. If he can correct that quickly, Reed should be fine as the team's second-half closer, but Brad Ziegler is worth a pickup in most formats. Ziegler has a 2.34 ERA and closer experience and would be the obvious choice should Arizona demote Reed.

Madison Bumgarner (SP-SF) - Despite his RBI single, it wasn't a great day for Bumgarner Thursday, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits with a 6:3 K:BB. The strikeouts were nice, but this is the second time in as many starts in which Bumgarner allowed five runs. Still, it's tough to complain about a guy with a 3.09 ERA and 120:29 K:BB in 113.2 innings. Bumgarner is actually averaging 92 mph with his fastball, the first time in his career that he's crossed that mark. That's resulted in a career-best 9.5 K/9 with his usual excellent control (2.2 BB/9), making him one of the better pitchers in the game. The last two starts: merely a speed bump.

Follow me on Twitter @vtadave

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Player Commentary
Jul 3, 2014
David Regan @rotoregan

Fan of Dodgers, Rams, and Lakers.

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