Julio Teheran- Julio Teheran is one of those pitchers where I cannot explain or justify his success, which frankly, terrifies me about him. Teheran is not an elite strikeout artist as his K Rate sits in the low 20's (21.7% as of the drafting of this blurb). He is an aggressive fly ball pitcher. He has a 44.3% Fly Ball Rate in 2014, but he manages to keep the ball in the ball park with a 7.2% HR/FB Rate. Teheran is excellent at controlling the zone with basically a 5% BB Rate on the season, but there are red flags all over him. One of the biggest is the continually decreasing fastball velocity despite his reasonable age. Teheran has lost about a MPH off his fastball each season since breaking into the major leagues in 2011. His fastball velocity is down to 90.3 MPH this season. Given that Teheran is not yet 24 years old, it is striking to see his fastball velocity decrease substantially every season. Perhaps, he is just one of those terrific pitchers that don't fit into my traditional mold of successful fantasy pitchers (Jered Weaver has basically spit in the face of every indicator I look to for the better part of a decade). Just because I don't understand his success doesn't mean it isn't valuable. Hang onto Teheran unless you get an offer that helps your squad, but you should be mindful of these issues, particularly his fastball velocity. Maybe it is just how he pitches, but dropping that much velocity from year to year at his age is a bit disconcerting.
Johnny Cueto- For those of you that tune-in to the Fantistics Fantasy Radio Show on Sirius/XM Fantasy Radio, you have heard us discuss the "Kevin Brown Plateau" (the name is a work in progress). As a reminder, this is the spot where a pitcher manages a K Rate in excess of 25% while also achieving a Ground Ball Rate of above 50%. Johnny Cueto has danced around the plateau for several seasons, but he has finally hit it in 2014. Cueto is striking out 25.6% of batters while owning a 51.7% Ground Ball Rate. Not surprisingly, Cueto has become a fantasy ace. His 1.99 ERA may regress slightly as his .221 BABIP against begins to normalize, but given his high frequency of ground balls, it is not a given that the BABIP will jump more than 10-20 points. As is, Cueto's FIP is 2.92 and his xFIP is 2.97. Even a regression of his ERA to match his FIP would leave him among the best pitchers in the game. Some of that regression may have begun on Wednesday when Cueto gave up 3 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 8 and walking 3. This was a bad outing for the Reds' ace. Cueto has been that good in 2014. He is a must start the rest of the season, and at age 28, he is a great option in keeper and dynasty formats moving forward for at least a couple of years.
Tyson Ross- Tyson Ross is another pitcher creeping towards that "Kevin Brown Plateau" we've discussed several times. Ross' K Rate is just under 25% at 23%, but his Ground Ball Rate is a spectacular 59.1%. Ross is still available in about 25% of leagues despite having fairly elite strikeout and ground ball numbers. He does have some negatives. He is walking batters about 8.7% of the time, and his HR/FB Rate is at 13.6%, which is a career high. Of course, it is worth noting that he only gives up a fly ball 22.2% of the time so that HR/FB Rate really isn't all that disconcerting considering approximately 73% of the batters Ross faces will either strikeout or put the ball on the ground. If he isn't owned in your league, pick him up. He may not get you a ton of wins because of the offense of the Padres, but otherwise, there is literally no reason that this player should not be owned in all leagues.
Ryan Braun- Ryan Braun has been a strong fantasy player this season, but he isn't quite the same athlete that we had seen from 2007 through 2012. Whatever the reason for the declination in skill set, and I won't be the one to speculate on this issue of why, Braun is not showing the kind of elite power or plate patience at this point in the season that we are used to seeing out of him. Part of the problem has been a change in contact rates over the course of the first part of this season. Braun's Fly Ball Rate is down to 31.8%, which would be the lowest of his career. His HR/FB Rate of 16.2% isn't terrible, but it is about 3-7 points below his MVP-caliber years. A combination of a lower HR/FB Rate and a lower Fly Ball Rate necessarily leads to decreased production for Braun. He is still a threat to hit 25 or so home runs this season, but for a player taken in the first round, he just isn't showing the kind of power he has in the past. Additionally, his BB Rate is down considerably from his three year average. There is time for this number to regress back towards his career mean, but as I pointed out in my May 22, 2014 piece, Braun has been swinging at considerably more pitches outside of the zone (41.9% in 2014 to a career mean of 33.1%). This inability to recognize pitches outside of the strike zone may be leading to his change in contact rates as Braun is not striking out more and making contact almost slightly more frequently on balls outside the zone. It certainly is contributing to his decreased BB Rate. Overall, Braun is showing a worse recognition of pitches and is hitting fewer balls with the authority we are used to. If I can get someone to pay me for Braun as if he were still a 1st round asset, I would surely sell him at this point. I'm just not sure anyone will pay that price for Braun.
Adrian Gonzalez- Adrian Gonzalez is flashing a bit more power than he has in the past two seasons and his batting average may be in line for a positive regression over the coming months. Gonzalez's ISO is up to .196 after being .164 in 2012 and .168 in 2013. While there may be room for some negative regression in this number, it probably will finish at its highest point in his three year sample. The main source of the increased ISO is a 15.6% HR/FB Rate, which is up 4.2 points from last season. This rate is in line with Gonzalez's career average so there isn't necessarily going to be a large negative regression on that number. His .273 BABIP is well below his career average, and while it may not reach the .320 he has averaged in his career, there is little reason to believe that his BABIP (and with it his batting average) will not rebound slightly. Overall, I'm thinking that Gonzalez will see a 10-20 point upswing on his average while continuing to hit for similar power to what we have seen now. As long as the neck injury bothering him currently isn't a long term concern (it doesn't seem to be), I'm very comfortable slotting Gonzalez as my starting 1st baseman moving forward.
Today's NL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56.
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