Jonathan Villar was 1-4 with a run scored against the Cardinals. Villar is now slashing .298/.377/.464, which is an absolute ridiculous line from someone that was supposed to lose their job to a rookie during the season. Villar not only is hitting .298 but he has 15 HR and 53 SB. At this point in the year is it time to start considering Villar for the first round of next year? He is putting up an Altuve light season at a position that has gotten better, but is still not super deep. He's walked more and hit the ball harder, but his 15 HR's are something that cannot be counted on going forward. He only hits 22% FB, which is extremely low for someone with 15 HR's and he has tripled his HR/FB from a year ago, which screams regression. I don't think he is first round material without the power, but he has shown the ability to get on base and the potential to steal 50+ bases is extremely valuable in this day and age of depleted steals.
Robert Gsellman went 5 IP and gave up 4 ER on 7 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Braves. Gsellman now has a 3.92 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 16.4% K. His WHIP and strikeout percentage do not support a 2.87 ERA he had coming into today's game, but we are talking about a small sample size here (15.2 IP). He has the repertoire of a major league starter, but he has not shown a track record of a strikeout rate that is going to be league average. He also doesn't get a ton of ground balls, so it is hard to see his ERA being in the mid threes going forward. He is likely to regress towards his 4.95 SIERA. The good news is that he has three good matchups coming up with Washington, Atlanta, and Philadelphia if you are looking for a streamer.
Randal Grichuk was 1-3 in this game. Grichuk was someone that I believed could hit 30-35 HR's this year based upon his batted ball profile. He hit the ball really hard. He hit the ball in the air and to the pull side, which is exactly what you need for power. However, his strikeout rate got to him early in the season and he was shuffled between the majors and the minors. Lately, Grichuk has been on fire. He is hitting .357 with 3 HR and 7 RBI over the past seven games. In the second half, he has hit .263 with 12 HR and 26 RBI in just 42 games. Obviously you can't extrapolate that out to a full season, but Grichuk has found his groove and will be an intriguing power option going forward and for next season.
Tanner Roark went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 8 K's against the Phillies. Roark now has a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 19.3% K. He has been a much needed staple for the Nationals rotation this year. He has a lower ERA in the second half with 2.69 ERA, but his peripheral stats are all trending down. His strikeout rate is down, walks are up, and his xFIP for the second half is 5.23. He is not pitching as well as his traditional stats indicate, which could be a concern down the stretch. However, he has two nice matchups with the Mets and the Marlins coming up. Both starts are on the road, but both are against struggling offenses in good parks. I wouldn't worry too much about Roark's declining strikeout rate as the matchups are too good to pass up.
DFS Value Play
Brandon Moss has destroyed RHP this year. He has a .370 wOBA and .310 ISO against RHP over the past calendar year. He will be at home against a RHP in Chase Anderson, who struggles with LHB (1.49 HR/9, 42% FB). Moss has big time upside in this matchup and hopefully people will overlook him in a neutral park in St. Louis. DraftKings: $3,700
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