Will Smith was 0-3 against the Orioles. Smith is hitting .265 with 13 HR, 23 R, 34 RBI, and 1 SB through 44 games at the major league level. He has shown plus power throughout his minor league career and has the batted ball profile for it at the big league level (43% Hard, 53% FB, and 43% Pull). The concern long term is that his average at .265 doesn't look sustainable given his strikeout rate (29%) and the extreme fly ball profile. Smith does have a good eye at the plate (9% BB) so overall he should be able to continue to hit for power but with a lower batting average (.240-.250). Even with a drop in average, he is going to be one of the top catchers drafted next year.
Mike Moustakas was 3-4 with 2 HR (33), 2 R, and 5 RBI against the Marlins. This was only his second start since August 25th due to a hand injury. On the season, he has a .264 AVG with 33 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI, and 3 SB. He continues to have a very strong skill set with the unique ability to make contact (17% K) and hit the ball hard (42% Hard). This is why he has posted a career-high .262 ISO this year. Moustakas is a .260-.270 AVG hitter with 35+ HR in today's environment which is extremely useful given his multi-position eligibility. The hand injury is likely going to be an ongoing issue the rest of 2019 but should not be an issue in 2020 where Moustakas is likely to go overlooked once again at the draft.
Dallas Keuchel went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 3 H, 3 BB, and 8 K's against the Phillies. Keuchel has done exactly what the Braves signed him to do which is give them quality innings. He has a 3.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 96.2 IP. The underlying skills from a fantasy perspective are not great with 19% K and 8% BB with 9% SwStr. This is a that doesn't typically lead to an ERA under four but Keuchel pairs it with an elite groundball rate (61% GB). His 4.24 SIERA is more realistic given that lack of strikeouts which is still an above-average pitcher in today's environment but his lack of strikeouts makes him a fringe streamer in mixed leagues. His next start is going to come against the Phillies.
Dakota Hudson went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 5 BB, and 7 K's against the Rockies. On the year, Hudson has now made 29 starts and has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. He has been able to keep the Cardinals in the game but from a fantasy perspective, there is a lot to be scared of for the right-hander. His strikeout rate is well below average (17% K) and he walks too many batters (11% BB). He does a good job of getting ground balls (57% GB) but the lack of strikeouts and too many baserunners is eventually going to catch up to him. This is why something like his SIERA (4.99) is more realistic than his 3.38 ERA given his current skills. Hudson is someone to be very cautious of heading into 2020.
Robbie Ray went 0.2 IP and gave up 5 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 1 K against the Mets. Ray left his previous start with a blister on his pitching hand and it remains to be seen what lingering effects played a role in this one. On the year, he has a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 157 IP. You have gotten exactly what you signed up for when drafting Ray which is average ratios and a ton of strikeouts (208 K's). He has maintained the 31% strikeout rate from a year ago and this is backed up by his 13% swinging-strike rate. Ray continues to struggle with hard contact (43%) and walks (11%) but he has shown that he is able to work around those limitations by missing so many bats. Dreaming for a return to his 2017 season (2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP) is not realistic so it is important to have an understanding of who Ray is a pitcher for 2020 drafts. He will get you strikeouts but it is going to come at the expense of ratios.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Victor Robles (WSH) $3,700 and SP Tyler Mahle (CIN) $6,200
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