2020 HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed
New baseball data continues to emerge yearly, continually granting us insight into a player's core skill/ability. Indicators such as HR/FB rates are thankfully no longer looked at as blanket averages. As we have discussed, each hitter uniquely contributes to their HR/FB rates, and their batted ball speed plays a big part in that.....but there is more to the picture for this indicator. Data such as quality, location, direction, and frequency of contact are helping us redefine what we once accepted as happenstance.
Quality of Contact: Batted Ball Speed on HRs. I am often asked how BBS (Batted ball Speed on HRs) is distributed with HR/FB rates. The relationship is obvious, hitters that have a higher batted ball speed, tend to have a higher HR/FB rate. No surprises here. However the incremental change or increase in BBS is not linear to the increase in HR/FB rates, especially near the top end of the range. What this means is essentially, there's not a "for every X increase in BBS MPH, there is a Y increase in HR/FB rates". In fact what the data shows is that within the 102 to 105.5 BBS range, is a very slight increase in HR/FB rates. Without knowing anything else, we know that there are other factors at play, and even so if it were strictly based on BBS, the top end starts becoming exponential. From a statistical standpoint, the correlation (or R squared) last year between HR/FB rate was approximately .32. Not overwhelming, but clearly a pattern relationship. But again, clearly there are other factors to consider other than BBS in determining HR/FB rates. Below is a chart listing the average HR/FB rate based on BBS ranges:
|HR BBS Range||HR/FB|
Location of Contact: Stadium Variance - It's widely known that certain ballparks have a clear advantage for hometown players, and some ballparks are a disadvantage for others. To no one's surprise ballparks in Colorado, Cincinnati, Texas, and Milwaukee are among the leaders in upward HR/FB variance. These ballparks offer a 10-15% increase in HR/FB rates. And this variance helps explain the outlier we see in the 104.1 to 104.5 BBS range above. Players in this grouping have the highest stadium factor among all ranges listed. Keep in mind it's a very small subset with only 15 players in this range, so it doesn't take much to affect rates, and sure enough the ballpark inflation among this range made it's presence felt. From a statistical standpoint, the correlation (or R squared) last year between Stadium and HR/FB rate was approximately .22. A slight correlation, but part of a bigger picture.
Directional of Contact: Pull% - Although pull % is related to HR/FB rate, the relationship tends to have a more positive impact for hitters with slower BBS. Hitters with higher HR/FB rates don't need to pull the ball to hit HRs, they can hit the ball out in any direction because of their superior batted ball speed. So although pull % is related, it's more of a factor for those hitters that have a average BBS. Hitters in the 102-103 BBS range. An example of 3 hitters within this range, who have elevated HR/FB rates, which can be attributed in part to a higher pull% are: Max Muncy (26% HR/FB rate - 44 pull%), Evan Gattis (32% HR/FB rate - 51 pull%), Miguel Sano (19% HR/FB rate - 48% pull%). Although their batted ball speed doesn't correlate in the traditional means to an elevated HR/FB rate, their ability to pull the ball does add leverage to their HR/FB rates. From a statistical standpoint, the correlation (or R squared) last year between Pull % and HR/FB rate was approximately .24. Again not overwhelming, but a key ingredient in our multiple regression model.
Frequency of Contact: Hard Hit % - Sports Info Solutions has done a meticulous job of charting quality of contact, and assigning them into 3 categories: Soft Hits / Medium Hits / Hard Hits. Obviously, the harder the contact, the better. Players with a higher Hard Hit% tend to have both a higher BABIP, and of course a higher HR/FB ratio. In most cases this hard hit rate has more bearing on the HR/FB rates than does HR BBS. Consider the likes of the following players, who have an average BBS on HRs is in the norm 102.5-103.9 range, but have a Hard Hit rate which is considerably above the 39% average:
In a nutshell, having a higher than average BBS average on your HRs is great, but that's not necessarily going to guarantee a high HR/FB rate if you are making hard contact less than 35% of the time. In the example above, these players are hitting the ball with authority more often than players like Michael Conforto, who had a superior BBS on HRs of 105.4, but his frequency of hard contact was below above average last season at 37% last season, which makes his 17% HR/FB rate slightly under represented but understandable. From a statistical standpoint, the correlation (or R squared) last year between hard Hit % and HR/FB rate was approximately +.77! For those who may not be statistics majors, the regression range is -1 to +1, with a +1 being a perfect fit. A .77 with P and F values in acceptable ranges, is pretty exciting.
Players who were outliers in 2019
So who do we expect to see an increase/decrease in HR/FB rates in 2020? Lets start by identifying the players who posted HR/FB rates that were not in line with the underlying indicators discussed abive.
Here are players who posted a less than expected HR/FB rate in 2019, and should see a sizable increase in HRs in 2020:
(Player notes below can be found in the player projections software and may not directly reference HR/FB rates)
Rhys Hoskins What makes Hoskins unique is his EYE (.67)...which is a
rarity for power hitters. He doesn't strikeout often with a ~80% contact
rate. His 14% HR/FB rate offer plenty of upside in the HR department in
2020. He's a pull hitter (50%), but the shifts against him last season led
to a .188 Singles%, which heavily hurt his BA (226). On that topic his BA
was under represented as his 267 BABIP has upward mobility. There is a lot
to be excited about (especially his 46% HardHit%) with Hoskins entering his
27th year of age. 2019 BABIP: 0.267(-0.005)| Contact Rate: 78%(-2%)| HR
Distance: 389ft(-4)| HR BBS: 102.2(-1.2)| HardHit%: 46.2%(11.7%)| Avg
Velocity: 90(0.8)| Elevation%: 24.0(1.6)| Barrels%: 9.7%(-1.7%)| HR/FB%:
14%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.67(0.09)| ISO: 22.8%(-2.3%)
Joey Votto For the 2nd straight season, Votto disappointed his fantasy owners. In 525 Abs Votto only managed 15 HRs (10% HR/FB rate for the 2nd straight season after 20+% for the previous 3 seasons). Sure there is age related component, but he still makes contact at an above average 42% Hard%. What was most baffling was the lack of RBIs at only 47 (should have been closer to 72), which again had him more patient at the plate than we want to see. At 36 temper your expectations.
Jose Ramirez Ramirez absolutely bombed in the 1st half, but came on strong in the second half with 18HR/53RBI/.321. He finished with a 40% HardHit%, but was closer to 47% in the 2nd half. Overall his numbers should improve in 2020, as his 12% HR/FB rate has a lot of upside, but don't pay for 2018.
Danny Jansen Unlucky 230 BABIP does not correlate with superior 43% Hard Hit rate. Also seemed unlucky with HR/FB count as his Hard Hit rate and distance on HRs correlates closer to 17% than the 12% we saw in 2019. We love the 81% contact rate and only 20% K%. Lots of upside here in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.230(-0.044)| Contact Rate: 81%(-3%)| HR Distance: 409ft(19)| HR BBS: 101.9(-0.8)| HardHit%: 42.4%(22.4%)| Avg Velocity: 89(3.6)| Elevation%: 16.1(-5.0)| Barrels%: 5.9%(-3.3%)| HR/FB%: 12%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.3)| EYE: 0.39(-0.14)| ISO: 15.3%(-3.2%)
Scott Kingery Kingery posted a 15% HR/FB rate in 2019, and there is room for his rate to increase. His 46% HardHit rate is considered elite. Of concern however is his BA, as the 29% K rate and the heavy flyball rates, keep his BA at risk. Look for a jump in RBI production if he can maintain the FT job all season. 2019 BABIP: 0.337(0.046)| Contact Rate: 70%(-3%)| HR Distance: 389ft(8)| HR BBS: 103.3(3.2)| HardHit%: 45.9%(19.3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(2.7)| Elevation%: 17.5(0.7)| Barrels%: 8.0%(2.9%)| HR/FB%: 15%(9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.0)| EYE: 0.23(0.04)| ISO: 21.6%(10.3%)
Jorge Polanco Polanco is a heavy flyball hitter, with above average contact rates. Although he is developing into more of a power hitter, but his velocity on batted balls of 87 is still a few MPH below league average, and his 101.5 BBS and 393 average distance on his HRs is an indication that we might not see the progression in HRs that we could normally see with a hitter entering his prime. There is plenty of upside on the 10% HR/FB rate. That said his RBI count was depressed last season. 2019 BABIP: 0.328(-0.017)| Contact Rate: 84%(-2%)| HR Distance: 393ft(11)| HR BBS: 101.5(-3.2)| HardHit%: 39.5%(7.4%)| Avg Velocity: 87(3.1)| Elevation%: 17.9(2.4)| Barrels%: 6.7%(3.0%)| HR/FB%: 10%(3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.3)| EYE: 0.52(0.12)| ISO: 19.0%(5.1%)
Ozzie Albies Albies kicked up his Hard Hit rate to an impressive 42% in 2019, and with that his BA reached a sustainable .295. We love his 80% contact rate, with reasonable 16% K%. At only 23 this season we see lots of upside in his 12% HR/FB rate from last season. There's also upside in the RBI department if he sticks in the 3 slot for the Braves. 2019 BABIP: 0.325(0.040)| Contact Rate: 79%(-1%)| HR Distance: 394ft(5)| HR BBS: 102.2(-1.3)| HardHit%: 42.3%(7.9%)| Avg Velocity: 89(2.5)| Elevation%: 15.6(0.1)| Barrels%: 6.6%(1.9%)| HR/FB%: 12%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.1)| EYE: 0.48(0.17)| ISO: 20.5%(1.4%)
J.T. Realmuto As expected there was a considerable production increase in his new ballpark, with that came a 7 net point increase in his Hard Hit rate to 46%, which leads us to believe there is still upside in his 16% HR/FB rate from a year ago. 2019 BABIP: 0.309(-0.003)| Contact Rate: 78%(-1%)| HR Distance: 393ft(-15)| HR BBS: 102.6(-1.3)| HardHit%: 45.6%(7.1%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.4)| Elevation%: 14.4(0.0)| Barrels%: 8.7%(-0.3%)| HR/FB%: 16%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.33(-0.04)| ISO: 21.7%(0.9%)
Rougned Odor Odor kicked it back up to 30 HRs in 2019, the problem remains the drag on your team BA. He once again was in the 205 zone last year, and a lot of that has to do with the kick up in the K% which hit an alarming 30% last year. When he does make contact, the results are unquestionable (46% Hard Hit rate and 14% barrels%)...which translated to a legit 19% HR/FB rate. If he could get a little more lucky with the 244 BABIP, he could be a fantasy asset. | 2019 BABIP: 0.244(-0.061)| Contact Rate: 73%(-5%)| HR Distance: 402ft(-2)| HR BBS: 104.5(-2.5)| HardHit%: 45.7%(0.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.6)| Elevation%: 16.2(4.5)| Barrels%: 13.6%(6.5%)| HR/FB%: 19%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.3)| EYE: 0.29(-0.05)| ISO: 23.4%(6.3%)
Renato Nunez What we said last year: "Nunez brings plus bat speed and plus power potential to the party, but unless he can curb his overly aggressive approach he's a fringe prospect (lblasi). There is plenty of promise in his 105.1 BBS (on his HRs) last season, as well as a under represented 11% HR/FB rate." | Boom! 31HR/90RBIs in 2019. We are looking at a hitter that was slightly below average with a 37% HardHit%, but when he did make contact, the ball absolutely flew off his bat with a 107.3 BBS and 412 distance on his HRs. The K rate is an equitable 24% and he'll take a walk 7% BB%. He does have a higher propensity to chase balls out of the K zone, so that will be his challenge in 2020 and the risk to fantasy owners. | 2019 BABIP: 0.272(-0.043)| Contact Rate: 74%(3%)| HR Distance: 412ft(10)| HR BBS: 107.3(2.1)| HardHit%: 36.6%(9.3%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.0)| Elevation%: 20.0(4.0)| Barrels%: 10.7%(2.2%)| HR/FB%: 17%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.2)| EYE: 0.31(0.00)| ISO: 21.6%(5.5%)
Corey Seager Despite battling injury most of the season the young shortstop put up decent numbers in 2019. His current slash is .272/.337/.483 across 134 games, which is encouraging considering he underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year. - dnachtigal At only 26 Seager is going to have that breakout season if he can stay healthy. His Hard Hit rates have historically been elite, as has his average distance on his HRs. 2019 BABIP: 0.303(0.002)| Contact Rate: 77%(-4%)| HR Distance: 403ft(-4)| HR BBS: 102.6(-7.2)| HardHit%: 42.3%(7.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-2.7)| Elevation%: 14.1(4.5)| Barrels%: 7.3%(-0.9%)| HR/FB%: 12%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.7)| EYE: 0.45(-0.20)| ISO: 21.1%(8.2%)
Byron Buxton Buxton's 2019 season was once again lost to injury. Buxton's production is finally starting to show signs of promise and the power is encouraging. His 105 BBS and 402 distance on his HRs could support a 15-16% HR/FB rate. Buxton was 14 for 17 last season which raises the spectra of him moving up another tier with more opportunities. Lots to like at only 26 YO. The 19% elevation on his swing means a ton of flyballs, and his above average 39% 95MPH+% could mean a breakout in HRs in 2020. 2019 BABIP: 0.314(0.088)| Contact Rate: 73%(0%)| HR Distance: 402ft(2)| HR BBS: 105.1(0.1)| HardHit%: 35.4%(5.2%)| Avg Velocity: 89(3.6)| Elevation%: 19.5(6.8)| Barrels%: 8.3%(6.7%)| HR/FB%: 10%(10%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(-0.7)| EYE: 0.28(0.17)| ISO: 25.1%(20.7%)
Here are players that posted a more than expected HR/FB rate in 2019,and should see a sizable decrease in HRs in 2020:
*ND - No Doubter HR in 2018 *JE - Just Enough Distance HRs in 2018 *Data from ESPN HR Tracker
Christian Yelich The
transition is complete, we targeted Yelich 5 years ago as a hitter who could
become a fantasy juggernaut if he could shift his then heavy GB/FB rates. At
the time they were 2.82 and last year it was 1.20. His HRs jumped from 21 to
44 last season. His Hard Hit% is off the chart at 51%, as is his 15.8%
Barrels%. That said, expect the HR count to back off from the current 33% to
a more reasonable range, while the RBI count should increase. Oh yeah 30 for
32 stolen bases. Top 3 fantasy selection. 2019 BABIP: 0.355(-0.018)| Contact
Rate: 74%(-5%)| HR Distance: 407ft(-4)| HR BBS: 105.7(-0.1)| HardHit%:
50.8%(3.2%)| Avg Velocity: 93(0.8)| Elevation%: 11.2(6.5)| Barrels%:
15.8%(2.9%)| HR/FB%: 33%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(-1.0)| EYE: 0.68(0.18)| ISO:
Peter Alonso Alonso hit 53 HRs in 2019, which is the most by a rookie in the history of baseball. He has 85 total extra base hits this season and has posted an impressive .384 wOBA and 143 wRC+. It will be hard for him to come back and replicate this kind of season next year, but he is just 24 years old, so the future is certainly bright for Alonso. - dnachtigal | His distance on HRs of 414 and 107.7 BBS is elite, and solid 42% HardHit%. That said his 31% HR/FB rate is likely not sustainable, but far from impossible. His BA offers some upside, as he should be above the 280 BABIP from a season ago. 2019 BABIP: 0.368(0.368)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| HR Distance: 406ft(406)| HR BBS: 103.6(103.6)| HardHit%: 32.7%(32.7%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.6)| Elevation%: 10.3(10.3)| Barrels%: 8.8%(8.8%)| HR/FB%: 22%(22%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(1.3)| EYE: 0.28(-0.06)| ISO: 26.0%(26.0%)
Nelson Cruz Continues to outperform with 31% HR/FB rate, which is more than what it should be based on his elite 106.6 BBS on HRs and 52% Hard Hit rate. He's maintained a higher rate through the last 5 seasons, which is astonishing considering that he'll be 39 this season. We are going to project a HR/FB rate in the 22-25% range. Still his 20% Barrels% from a season ago is absolutely astonishing at his advanced age. 2019 BABIP: 0.351(0.087)| Contact Rate: 70%(-1%)| HR Distance: 411ft(2)| HR BBS: 106.6(1.2)| HardHit%: 52.5%(10.2%)| Avg Velocity: 94(-0.2)| Elevation%: 13.1(0.3)| Barrels%: 19.9%(6.1%)| HR/FB%: 31%(7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.2)| EYE: 0.43(-0.02)| ISO: 32.8%(7.6%)
Brett Gardner At age 36, Gardner hit a career-high 28 HR's with 8 of those coming in 15 September games. A repeat of this in 2020 doesn't seem that likely as his 37.5% FB% isn't super high and he still has a weak 33.9% Hard%. Then there is the 19% HR/FB rate that is not supported by his underlying fundamentals. He could still have some fantasy value though as someone who contributes in multiple categories, assuming he continues to play every day for the Yankees. - mgreenfeld 2019 BABIP: 0.265(-0.007)| Contact Rate: 83%(-5%)| HR Distance: 382ft(-3)| HR BBS: 100.2(-2.6)| HardHit%: 34.0%(6.4%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.1)| Elevation%: 13.6(5.2)| Barrels%: 4.1%(1.3%)| HR/FB%: 19%(11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(-0.3)| EYE: 0.48(-0.13)| ISO: 25.3%(12.1%)
Franmil Reyes What we love about Reyes is the quality of contact. His 47% Hard Hit rate is elite as is his 93 MPH average velocity on his batted balls. His 407 distance and 106.4 BBS are beast like, but his 31% HR/FB rate is likely to settle in closer to 23-26%. There is upside in his BA, as his 279 BABIP seems unfortunate. On the plus side should be h is RBI count which seems a little under appreciated in 2019. 2019 BABIP: 0.279(-0.066)| Contact Rate: 65%(-4%)| HR Distance: 407ft(-1)| HR BBS: 106.4(1.5)| HardHit%: 47.3%(3.1%)| Avg Velocity: 93(1.0)| Elevation%: 9.5(2.7)| Barrels%: 14.8%(3.2%)| HR/FB%: 31%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.4)| EYE: 0.30(0.00)| ISO: 26.3%(4.5%)
Javier Baez RBI count was short about 13 last season, so we should see a nice bounce there. Was only 11 for 18 in SB department, but 6 for 8 in 2nd half. At only 27, he's still within prime years to get back to 20. Above Average velocity on his balls in play continues to climb (91), and 105 SOB on HRs is well above average. All the markings show that his 24% HR/FB rate is legit.
Omar Navarez The 22
Homeruns from 2019 look to be inflated by a 16% HR/FB ratio that isn't
supported by elevated velocity (29% HardHit% and 85 MPH AVG Velocity). 2019
BABIP: 0.306(-0.024)| Contact Rate: 80%(-4%)| HR Distance: 384ft(3)| HR BBS:
100.8(0.1)| HardHit%: 29.8%(1.2%)| Avg Velocity: 85(0.3)| Elevation%:
17.8(4.8)| Barrels%: 5.3%(2.5%)| HR/FB%: 16%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.6)|
EYE: 0.51(-0.07)| ISO: 18.2%(2.8%)
Aaron Judge Injuries have kept Judge from being as productive this season, but nonetheless the young stud has put up a solid campaign in 2019. He finished with 27 homers and his wOBA is a solid .375 on the season. He still strikes out a lot (31% K%), but the only real concern for fantasy owners going into next year is his health. - dnachtigal | What we liked was his uber elite 54% Hard Hit % and mega 96 MPH average velocity, making his 35% HR/FB rate astonishingly potentiall repeatable, but unlikely. What we expect to see in 2020 is a higher RBI%. He's a legit 60+ HR guy if he can revert back with a little higher elevation in 2020.| 2019 BABIP: 0.360(-0.008)| Contact Rate: 65%(-1%)| HR Distance: 394ft(-5)| HR BBS: 106.3(1.4)| HardHit%: 53.8%(5.7%)| Avg Velocity: 96(1.2)| Elevation%: 11.4(-1.0)| Barrels%: 20.2%(4.0%)| HR/FB%: 35%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.1)| EYE: 0.45(-0.05)| ISO: 26.7%(1.8%)
Jonathan Villar Massive change in approach last year as average elevation on swings wen from 2.7 to 7.0, causing many more flyballs (GB/FB rate went from 2.3 to 1.5), which of course led to spike in HRs. The K% did rise however from 22.5 to 24.7, but the uptick in run production overshadows the expected loss BA points. Thus it's likely that his approach will remain similar in 2020. Oh yeah, the bonus is the 40 out of 49 in SBs.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis absolutely killed it in his first albeit shortened 1st MLB season. With 22HR/53RBI/61RS/.317/16SB in only 372 PA, we are looking at a 5 tool Fantasy Baseball Star in the making. That said, his 32HR/FB rate from 2019, is not supported by his solid 105.7 BBS and excellent 42% Hard Hit rate. The 67% Contact rate, makes it very unlikely that we'll see a repeat of the 317 BA, especially when he posted a unsustainable 410 BABIP. Lots to love here, but we do need to temper our expectations in his sophomore season. |We talk about that power/speed combo a lot but there is more at play here with Tatis. In addition to those skills, Fernando already shows a strong and advanced plate approach with an acceptable K rate in light of his power and a desirable walk rate in light of his speed game. Long Term Fantasy Grade: A (lblasi) | 2019 BABIP: 0.410(0.410)| Contact Rate: 67%(67%)| HR Distance: 405ft(405)| HR BBS: 105.7(105.7)| HardHit%: 41.9%(41.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.6)| Elevation%: 6.9(6.9)| Barrels%: 13.2%(13.2%)| HR/FB%: 32%(32%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(1.5)| EYE: 0.27(-0.04)| ISO: 27.2%(27.2%)
Willson Contreras Contreras 2019 campaign looked like this: .272/.369/.533 in 360 at-bats. He should slot in along with JT Realmuto as the two most productive fantasy catchers in the NL next year, especially if he can avoid another long IL stint. Contreras has seen his K% increase to 25% in 2019 (from 22.2%), but that's not a real long-term concern, and his .258 ISO is easily a career-best. He's done a better job getting the ball in the air this year (35.5% FB% vs. 30.7% the year prior), though a HR/FB% exceeding 27% probably isn't sustainable. Either way, he's a top option at the position. - dregan 2019 BABIP: 0.314(0.001)| Contact Rate: 70%(-4%)| HR Distance: 405ft(15)| HR BBS: 105.3(2.1)| HardHit%: 36.9%(8.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.3)| Elevation%: 7.3(0.5)| Barrels%: 11.5%(4.2%)| HR/FB%: 27%(18%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(-0.2)| EYE: 0.37(-0.07)| ISO: 26.1%(12.0%)
Miguel Sano Sano went into absolute beast mode last year with 34 HRs in only 372 ABs. Yes of course his 37% HR/FB rate is not sustainable, but his 53% Hard Hit rate, 107.1 BBS on HRs, and 94 MPH average velocity is off the charts. At only 26, the only thing that will stop Sano from being a fantasy superstar is himself and his health. 2019 BABIP: 0.319(0.033)| Contact Rate: 64%(-3%)| HR Distance: 415ft(18)| HR BBS: 107.1(4.8)| HardHit%: 52.7%(10.2%)| Avg Velocity: 94(4.1)| Elevation%: 15.9(3.0)| Barrels%: 21.2%(9.4%)| HR/FB%: 37%(16%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.2)| EYE: 0.35(0.08)| ISO: 32.9%(13.0%)
Eloy Jimenez Eloy Jimenez (OF-CHW) really turned it on after a sluggish start to his big-league career. The 22 year-old hit just .241 with 16 homers and 38 RBI in 228 first-half plate appearances, but since the All-Star break he had batted .284 with 17 dingers and 46 RBI in 271 plate appearances. The peripherals offer a bit of a mixed bag, however, as he has slashed his strikeout rate from 29% to 25% while having his walk rate dip from 8% to just 4%. Other positives include his hard-hit rate jumping from just 35% to 41% while his line drive clip rising from 15% to 21%. Overall, Jimenez has shown some growth and he could come at a reasonable price in 2020 drafts, as his .267 average, 31 homers, and 79 RBI likely won't pop off the screen on draft day in a day and age where everybody is hitting for power. - Adam Hodge 2019 BABIP: 0.308(0.308)| Contact Rate: 69%(69%)| HR Distance: 409ft(409)| HR BBS: 105.9(105.9)| HardHit%: 38.1%(38.1%)| Avg Velocity: 91(91.2)| Elevation%: 9.3(9.3)| Barrels%: 12.8%(12.8%)| HR/FB%: 27%(27%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(1.4)| EYE: 0.22(-0.06)| ISO: 24.6%(24.6%)
Roberto Perez As we expected Perez had a breakout season in 2019 with 24 HR/63 RBIs in 389 Abs. His 41% 95MPH+% remained above average as did his 106 BBS on his HRs. The big shift was in the increase in Barrels from 6% to 11%. That said his 28% HR/FB rate is going to likely drop into the 18-19% range and the BA remains at risk. Be wary not to pay for his 2019 HRs.
Christian Vazquez Increase in BA is legit, but HR count likely to decline as his profile points to a hitter that should be closer to a 13% HR/FB rate instead of the 16% last season.
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