James Paxton (SP-BOS) was stellar in his first start since exiting his previous outing because of knee soreness, firing 7.2 shutout IP against Toronto in which he scattered 3 hits and 2 walks while recording 7 punchouts. The 34 year-old southpaw threw 70 of his 110 offerings for strikes in the contest. Paxton - who threw just 21.2 IP in the majors since 2020 entering the campaign - has been a pleasant surprise so far in 2023, recording a 2.70 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 3.26 xFIP across his first 9 starts (50 IP). With his average fastball velocity back to 96 mph, Paxton has missed lots of bats (15% swinging-strike rate) and kept hard contact to about the league average (37%) by mainly leaning on his heater (55%), 81-mph curve (18%), and 86-mph cutter (18%). He's been a fantasy asset before, so there's no reason to think that he should remain one if he can stay healthy. He does face another tough test in his next outing, though, as the Rangers will visit town.
Seth Lugo (SP-SD) was stellar against the red-hot Reds on Friday as he tossed 6 IP in which he allowed 1 unearned run on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 6. The 33 year-old righty threw 63 of his 94 pitches for strikes in the contest. Lugo has found some success in his return to a starting role in 2023, as he now boasts a 3.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.68 xFIP through his first 11 starts (57.2 IP) of the campaign. He's limited hard contact to a modest 31% rate, which is good since opposing hitters have recorded an above-average 85% contact rate against him. Yes, the control is nice, but Lugo has missed very few bats (7% swinging-strike rate), which casts doubt on his ability to remain a fantasy asset going forward. He lines up for a turn against the Angels at home next week.
Josiah Gray (SP-WSH) earned the W against the Phillies on Friday, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits and a walk while recording 8 punchouts over 6 IP. The righty fired 70 of his 99 offerings for strikes while keeping the ball in the yard. A 3.30 ERA across his first 17 starts (95.1 IP) of the campaign would suggest that Gray has improved significantly this season (4.67 career ERA), but his strikeout rate is down (8.1 K/9 in 2023, 9 career) while his 4.1 BB/9 matches his career average. A 4.63 xFIP, moreover, is in line with his career figure in that department (4.74). A repertoire change - namely the addition of an 89-mph cutter that he deploys 21% of the time - could be contributing to his superficial success, but it's worth noting that his average fastball velocity is down a full tick from nearly 95 mph to under 94. It would probably not be wise to start him next week against a Cincinnati team that's been hot recently.
Hunter Harvey (RP-WSH) picked up his 7th save of the campaign on Friday as he fired a clean 9th against the Phillies in which he fanned a pair. The 28 year-old has cemented himself as the Nationals' closer after Kyle Finnegan - who worked in front of him to earn a hold on Friday - opened the season as the club's primary closer. Harvey now owns a 3.25 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 3.54 xFIP across 36 IP on the campaign. Armed with a 99-mph average heater (60% usage), 88-mph slider (13% usage), 90-mph splitter (19% usage), and 84-mph curve (8% usage), Harvey has the pure stuff to succeed as a closer. And he's in the midst of showing it, so make the add if he's available in your league; he's currently rostered in just over 2% of ESPN leagues.
Christopher Morel (OF-CHC) went 1-4 with a 3-run blast against Cleveland on Friday. The 24 year-old flashed some potential in the majors last season (hitting 16 homers and stealing 10 bags in 425 PA), but strikeout issues (32%) contributed to a .235 average. He's shown some improvement in key areas this season en route to logging a .276 average, 14 dingers, 34 RBI, 30 runs scored, and a steal across just 155 PA. The strikeout rate is down a bit (29%) while he's trimmed his swinging-strike rate (down to 16% from 18%) and has made more contact (up to 68% from 63%). Morel has especially improved his contact on pitches inside the zone (z-contact% is up to 78% from 69%). He's also elevated his hard contact rate (per Statcast) from just under 40% to a bit over 47%). Overall, though, the contact issues are concerning and cast doubt on whether he can make his combination of plus power and speed worthwhile for fantasy owners.
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