Some pitchers get by on smoke and mirrors, pure gile, deception, craftiness, knowledge, experience...wait a minute: what I just described are the qualities that make quality pitching, something that StatCast, Stuff+ and all the spin rates in the world don't care to measure. But there is value in Pure Pitching, a stat that doesn't exist but can lead to a strong IP, ERA and WHIP floor along with some Wins and Quality Starts. Below are a few Pitchers that defy the metrics, underlying and otherwise. Give them a look if you're streaming or in need of pitching whilst the Snells & Glasnows of the world get second opinions.
Seth Lugo SP KC
Over 56 IP, Lugo continues to defy the underlying numbers. Despite a bottom-feeding 13% Whiff Rate, an expected ERA of 4.76, the numbers read like this: 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The strikeouts are never going to climb at or near a K per IP, but the overall goodness of pitching lives on. Lugo was the one defiant SP from 2024 who most touts denied could continue the 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but here he is. Leave Lugo alone, he might just be a good pitcher who cares not for your modern metrics.
Jose Quintana SP MIL
What do you get with a 6% Whiff Rate, an xERA of 4.31 and an xBA of .271? Apparently, if you happen to be Jose Quintana, a miniscule 2.65 ERA, a decent 1.24 WHIP and 4 wins over 34 IP. StatCast hates this guy but so do hitters, so far, in 2025. Keep an eye on his health as his recent start was pushed back, but if you like IP with minimal damage and the potential for Wins and Quality Starts, Quintana could be a nice SP4 on your squad (just don't look at the underlying numbers, if that sort of thing makes you queasy...and it probably should).
Ben Lively SP CLE
If you're streaming SPs, should you Lively up yourself? It depends. Do you like 200 IP at 1.22 WHIP and an ERA hovering around 3.50? That's what he's Ben up to the last year plus, but the underlying numbers suggest I'm lying (I'm not): Tiny 2% Whiff Rate and a 4.43 xERA point toward disaster, but where's the fire? Hard to say, but if you like collecting high-floor IP with potential for Wins and Quality Starts, look Lively. Also, call Cleveland for answers on how to best the underlying metrics, as they have been at the vanguard of squeezing value out of otherwise neglected players ever since Jonah Hill said hello to Brad Pitt in that one seminal movie (Moneyball).
Zack Littell SP TAM
Zack's extremely little Whiff Rate of 7% along with an xERA of 4.79 and xBA of .274 can only mean one thing, right? He's not a good starting pitcher...or maybe he's just not understood by the StatCast machine, because over 47 IP his WHIP is a tidy 1.11 Sure, the ERA is 4.44 but how do you explain the low WHIP and 37 serviceable starts over the last two seasons? It's another case of a pitcher pitching in such a manner that blue and red cannot explain. Maybe watch him pitch and then decide yourself if he's worth streaming.
Carlos Estévez RP KC
Closing time with a 9% Whiff Rate? Some closers get by without the Hader-ade, and Estévez is slamming the door softly in KC. His chase rate is only 14% but he gets about a K per IP and has kept the ERA low at 2.37 and the WHIP well at 1.16. The metrics aren't wild about his 90 MPH average Exit Velo or his barely-there 6% Groundball rate, but he's closed the door a dozen times in KC and looks to continue doing so for the foreseeable future. He may be a case of opportunity knocking and answering, as Estévez does not have the raw stuff that would translate to continual closing; however, he is another case of StatCast not being the end all for predictive outcomes for pitching.
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