Cody Bellinger, OF, New York Yankees
Bellinger had quite the day, going 3-5 with 3 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI on three hard hit balls. Homering thrice will certainly garner attention. The former MVP winner has traditionally been a very very hot and very very cold player, and we're seeing just how good those hot streaks can be. Bellinger is slashing .390/.405/.659 in July, just after slashing .302/.343/.510 in June. Bellinger has a well-balanced offensive profile, but it plays so well in this lineup and in the Yankees ballpark. While his .368 xwOBACON is nothing special, Belly has a 23.9 Pull Air % and he's striking out at a career low 14.6%. With his speed, and given the fact that he's sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Ben Rice, you need to be playing him with confidence everyday.
Brice Matthews, 2B, Houston Astros
Matthews went 0-4 with 3 K's in his big league debut. The 2023 first round pick has spent the entirety of his 2025 in AAA, where he's slashed .283/.400/.476 with 10 homers and 25 stolen bases in 73 games. Unfortunately, Matthews was punching out considerably in AAA (30.2%), which isn't encouraging after striking out at 31.4% across various levels in 2024. Matthews hit 8th tonight in a Houston lineup that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. There are going to be limited counting stat opportunities with that in mind, plus I think there will be growing pains. Pass.
William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Contreras went 2-4 with R, 2 2B, 2 RBI on two hard hit balls. After a very strong 2023 and 2204 for a catcher, Contreras has certainly disappointed in 2025. The barrel rate has plummeted to just 4.4%, and the xwOBACON is at a concerningly low .332. Contreras is hitting groundballs at a 53.2% clip, but that is largely in line with his rate the last couple seasons. The main culprit is that his chase contact sits at a career high 61.7%. In an effort to not strikeout, Contreras is expanding the zone, which is causing a higher volume of weaker contact. The same hitter should still be there, but there is an approach change that needs to happen.
Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres
Merrill went 0-3 with a R on one hard hit ball. He has been down right horrible in July, slashing .088/.220/.088 across 42 PAs. Merrill is running nearly the same xwOBACON, LA Sweet Spot, and Barrel rate this year as he had last year. While his hard hit rate is down a bit, this year, the sample is small and provides no reason to overly panic. That being said, Merrill is chasing a touch more, and is laying off meatballs much more, so there could be some better decisions for sure, but the same hitter is still there. Buy Low.
Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Harper went 1-4 with 2 K on one hard hit ball. There is growing belief that the once-phenom is now quietly settling into decline in his age 32 season. And while I can understand the frustration with a lack of counting stats, Harper does plenty of really excellent things at the plate. While his .433 xwOBACON is one of the worst in his career, it's still miles above major league average. His 42.2 LA Sweet Spot is the best of his career, and his 91.4 EV and 13.5 LA are identical to his career average. His 36.9% groundball rate is a career best, and his 2.1% popup rate is also a career best. The shape of his contact is borderline the best it's ever been. The issue with Haprer isn't that the hitter has deteriorated, but the completeness of the player certainly has. He's a 35th Percentile runner now, so the stolen bases, stretching single into doubles, and the extra runs aren't there. There isn't a significant hitter behind him, so it stands to reason the counting stats would struggle. Harper is still the same hitter, but I'd argue the situation he's in is more mediocre, and that his dimensionality of a player is slowly reducing.
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