Dylan Cease, SP, TOR
Cease carried a no-hitter into the 9th inning against the Giants on Wednesday, before ultimately finishing with 8 shutout innings pitched, 1 hit allowed, 3 BB's and 11 K's. He has allowed just 8 baserunners in 15 scoreless innings over his last two starts, and incredibly he has allowed 4 hits or fewer in 9 consecutive starts. With a 2.56 ERA and career-high 13.55 K/9, Cease is currently probably second in line for the AL Cy Young award after Cam Schlittler. In addition to the elite strikeout rate, he has allowed hard contact at a strong 33.9% clip (career 37.5%) to go with a career best 4.2% Barrel%. It's hard to trust a pitcher with a BB/9 around 4.00 to contend for a Cy Young, but Cease did just that in 2022. He's projected for an ERA in the low 3.00's the rest of the way, and with his lofty strikeout numbers, he should continue to be a huge asset for fantasy teams.
Jared Jones, SP, PIT
Jones threw 6 perfect innings with 8 K's against the Braves on Wednesday before being pulled from the game after making 77 pitches. While he didn't have a chance to complete his perfect game, this was still a huge step in the right direction for Jones who has been inconsistent since returning from the IL in late May. His ERA through 8 starts sits at 4.37, but over his last 2 starts, he has allowed just 1 ER in 10 IP with a 14:2 K:BB. Overall, he has a strong 39:11 K:BB across 35 IP and a very solid 3.44 xFIP. Considering his upside, Jones needs to be picked up in leagues where he was dropped due to his sluggish start.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR
Guerrero went 1-5 with a HR against the Giants on Wednesday, marking his first HR since June 18, which was 17 games ago. It's been a trying season for the 1st baseman who has just 5 homeruns on the year as we approach the all-star break. We've seen Guerrero go through power droughts at other times in his career; usually it's because he's hitting two many groundballs. But that hasn't been the main problem this season as his fly ball rate is pretty close to his career average. However, he's not hitting the ball as hard as usual with a 43.9% HardHit% (career 49.8%), while his 6.8% Barrel% is way below his career 11.4% mark. It looks like there's been some bad luck too, as his 4.7% HR/FB entering Wednesday was way below anything we've seen from Guerrero before. His HardHit% may have dropped a bit, but it's still good enough for his HR/FB to be in the double-digits. His xSLG would be a career low, but it's about 60 points higher than his actual mark, again indicating that he should see positive regression. Based on his track record, we have to be optimistic that Vladi will find his power stroke at some point in the 2nd half.
Shane McClanahan, SP, TB
McClanahan pitched 6.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees on Wednesday, allowing 4 hits and no BB's, while striking out 5. After a tremendous May (1.41 ERA), McClanahan struggled in June (5.79 ERA), but he now has two scoreless starts to begin July, lowering his season ERA to 2.83. He's been a great comeback story after not pitching at all in MLB for two seasons, but it's fair to wonder if he'll keep up this level of success. His 82:28 K:BB across 86 IP is fine, but certainly not elite, nor is it close to the numbers he put in his first few seasons with the Rays. His .267 BABIP and 6.8% HR/FB% both indicate a bit of luck, and his 3.81 xFIP also suggests to expect some regression. This all isn't to say that McClanahan won't continue to be a solid pitcher; it just may be inaccurate to say that he's back to being the ace he once was.
Foster Griffin, SP, WAS
Griffin had another excellent start against the Astros on Wednesday, striking out 9 in 7 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB's. This marks the 7th straight start for Griffin in which he has allowed exactly 1 run, and his ERA for the season is down to 2.77. He's been great all season, but he's been especially exceptional since the start of June, recording a 1.25 ERA and 44:5 K:BB in 43.1 IP across 7 starts. There are some indicators that he's had some luck this season, but over this recent 7-start stretch, his xFIP is south of 3.00. He's been pitching like an ace and he needs to be rostered and started in all formats, if that wasn't obvious already.
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