Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler went 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K. I was very cautious of Wheeler coming back from his injury due to age, but it appears my caution was not rewarded. Wheeler now has a 2.28 ERA across 87 IP with a robust 2.96 xERA. Wheeler is a complete pitcher: he's striking out 27% of batters, getting grounders at 46.5%, and only walking 6.5%. This will be his third season in a row with an xERA below 3.00. Treat him as a high-end SP1 rest of season.
Taj Bradley, SP, Minnesota Twins
Bradley went 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K on four hard hit balls. Bradley does this every year. He puts together a couple good starts and gets everyone thinking a breakout is coming. His 27% K rate and 3.67 ERA might seem somewhat appealing as a startable fantasy SP, but I'm avoiding. His 33.8% GB rate is super low, and scary under the context of a 47% HH rate against. Bradley has posted a HH rate against of greater than 40% in 3 of his 4 seasons. He's also walking a career high 10% of batters and giving up barrels at 10% as well. He has a history of giving up quality contact, which I don't like. Pass.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox
Rafaela went 2-5 with R, HR, 2 RBI, K on two hard hit balls. Rafaela went 16-20 last year with a .249/.295/.709 slash line last year, making him at least fill-in worthy in fantasy lineups. He's taken a real step forward in terms of the slash line this year, but I'm not sure I buy it. Rafaela is slashing .284/.332/.441 in 344 PA's, a career best, but he's not backing it up with strong underlying offensive skills. Rafaela's Barrel%, LA, xwOBACON, and HH% are all three year lows. His ability to make quality contact has not gotten better, it's gotten worse. The main difference is that his Chase, Whiff, and therefore Swing percentages are all down, so he's not striking out much. I'd even argue his swing decisions are worse, as his zone-swing is down, but his chase contact is up. His .244 xBA and .349 xSLG agree. Sell.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Neto went 0-3 with BB, 2 K on zero hard hit balls. Neto went 26-26 last year and 23-30 the year before, planting him firmly on the fantasy map. Unfortunately, while he's still hitting homers (13) and stealing bases (11), the batting average has tanked. Neto's quality of contact is mostly unchanged. His Barrel %, HH%, and xSLG are somewhat down, but not enough to warrant a complete collapse from a .251 xBA in 2025 to .202 now. The culprit is easy to find. His Swing rate, Chase Rate, and Whiff rate are all up, and it's causing him to strikeout at 32%. Neto's quality of contact is good, but nowhere near enough to survive this kind of K rate. Luckily, it looks like an approach issue, but it's a suboptimal approach for the kind of player he is. Hold in dynasty, sell in redraft.
Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
Raleigh went 2-5 with R, 2 2Bs, RBI, 2 K on two hard hit balls. Raleigh is having quite the down year after blasting 60 homers last year. He missed time starting mid May and returned mid June. Upon return, he slashed .174/.345/.261, so there is clearly something still going on - and I don't like it. Raleigh has at least been better as of late. He's on a mini 3-game hit streak with 3 XBH's. Today was his first multi-hit game since May 12th. The weird thing about Raleigh is that the juice has completely faded. After posting at least a 41% HH rate for four years running, he now sits at 31%. He had an .xwOBACON over .420 for four years running as well, and he now sits at .363. I get not making contact - that's hard. But power-first bats are at least still able to maintain some kind of quality of contact through their slumps. I hate to speculate, but he's either (still) dealing with an injury, his swing has completely changed, or something else. It feels more like Black Swan than it does bad baseball. You can't trust him right now.
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