First Pitch – May 7th – Value Picks:

We’re back with another edition of Wednesday’s Value Picks! As we’ve mentioned before, every Wednesday we’ll go digging for diamonds in the rough that is the Free Agent Pool. While many of the selections in the past have been geared towards the traditional league format and identifying players which are less than 50% owned, we’ll try to dig a bit deeper for the next few weeks focusing on players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues. Below you’ll find the highlighted players in this week’s edition along with a brief write-up on why or how I feel this player can add value off the free agent wire.

Let’s get to it!

C: Chris Snyder

I’ve written about Snyder at length during this season but fantasy owners still seem cautious as Snyder’s owned in just 1.3% of ESPN.com leagues and just 30% of CBS leagues. Snyder was a popular pre-season sleeper pick after hitting .284/.366/.503 in the 2nd half but has fallen out of favor with a slow start, hitting just .247/.374/.452. But while the actual numbers are falling, the indicators are rising as Snyder’s improved his EYE from .60 to .68 (rising 3 years in a row), his RBI Rate from 12.8 to 17.1, and his extra base hit rate from 10% to 13.3%. He’s making improvements as a player and has the benefit of playing in a good home park (113 park factor) and in a vastly improved lineup. I have him as a Top 10 catcher and just outside my Top 5 the rest of the way and he’s not being treated as such. He should be owned in every league so if you’re not an owner of Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, or Brian McCann you should consider adding Snyder immediately.

1B: Matt Stairs

When the Blue Jays decided to release Frank Thomas, Adam Lind was the main player touched on as we, the fantasy analyst, tend to get a bit excited at the thought of a new player getting called up into a spot. It’s like having a new toy to play with, but the truth is sometimes that old toy is just as good if not better. Like a good game of RBI Baseball or Tecmo SuperBowl! And that’s what Matt Stairs is to the Toronto Blue Jays, he’s RBI Baseball. Heck Stairs might even be old enough to be in a version of RBI Baseball, but regardless there’s one thing this 40 year old has always been able to do throughout his career and that’s Hit. Stairs has posted a solid .847 OPS throughout his career but hasn’t found consistent playing time because he’s really out of position anywhere on the field. The good news is with the Big Hurt gone Stairs doesn’t need a position to play! Last year in just 357 AB’s Stairs hit 21 HR’s and for his career has hit a HR about every 19 AB’s. Project that rate over 500 AB’s and Stairs is a 25+ HR candidate! While he’s not in a particularly tremendous Blue Jays lineup (the east coast Padres), he is hitting in the middle of it which should help him to reach 75-80 Runs and 80-85 RBI’s. He’s basically an older version of Ryan Garko with less upside but unlike Garko he’s owned in just 7.4% of ESPN league and 14% of CBS leagues.

2B: Eugenio Velez

There are two things we look for in fantasy when trying to identify diamonds in the rough: Talent and Opportunity. Well Velez has one of those, I’ll let you figure out which one, and he sure can run having stolen 50+ bases in each of his last two minor league seasons. Unfortunately for Velez, as the saying goes, he can’t steal first base and he’s not much of a hitter having posted a .743 OPS at age 25 in AA. But he does have tremendous speed and is making decent enough contact and is hitting enough Ground Balls (59%) that his current .232 batting average should be on the rise and settle in closer to the .270-.280 range. He won’t offer anything in the power department or the RBI category, but he has a decent chance to score 70+ Runs and swipe 30-40 bases. The swipes are the key because that many SB’s can make a big impact in deeper leagues and as such Velez should be owned in more than the 1.8% of ESPN and 14% of CBS leagues he’s currently owned in.

SS: Ronny Cedeno

With Velez it was all about opportunity, with Ronny Cedeno (or ONEDEC as my beloved friends at Bleed Cubbie Blue have nicknamed him, because ya know… he’s “turned it around”) it’s all about talent. Cedeno was an all glove no hit guy for much of his minor league career but he was always usually young for his level and in 2005 he began to show signs with the bat posting a .355/.403/.518 line in 245 AAA AB’s. He then was given an everyday job in the debacle that was the 2006 Chicago Cubs where he didn’t hit at all (.610 OPS) before returning to AAA last season and posting a .959 OPS in another 287 AB’s. So coming into this season he had mastered the AAA level and early on in the 2008 campaign he’s showing significant improvements at handling major league pitching in limited playing time. Cedeno’s hit .383/.473/.574 in 47 AB’s while showing significant improvement in his EYE (.88) while showing an impressive BB Rate (12.3%) and a reduced K Rate (15.1%), while also making big improvements in his power (6 2B’s, 1 HR in 47 AB’s). The only thing holding Cedeno back from making an impact in deeper leagues is Lou Pineilla. Pineilla has fallen in love with the grittiness and scrappiness of both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, but Cedeno was given the start last night and Pineilla indicated Cedeno’s performance would dictate his future playing time (interesting since this hadn’t been the case before…), so maybe there’s a shot for Cedeno at more consistent playing time going forward. Cedeno’s also got dual eligibility in leagues with 2B as another option so if speed isn’t your primary need, I actually like Cedeno more than Velez. Given his playing time situation its understandable that Cedeno’s only owned in just 6% of CBS leagues and 20% of ESPN leagues.

3B: Blake DeWitt

One of the more under-looked and impressive stories of the 2008 season has been Blake DeWitt’s ability to handle the Dodgers starting 3B position. Coming into the season DeWitt had less than 300 AB’s A-Ball and had posted an underwhelming career minor league line of .279/.333/.444, but he was widely regarded as a solid prospect and his peripherals back up his strong early season performance. DeWitt’s shown tremendous plate discipline posting an EYE of 1.00 which is extremely impressive for a player of his experience and showed adequate power with an extra base hit rate of just under 9%. DeWitt’s staying power worries me a little bit not only because of the pressure for playing time brought on once Andy LaRoche returns but because I’m unsure if he’ll be able to continue this level of performance based on his minor league history. However, all of the current peripherals suggest he’s legitimate and while hitting in a deep and hot Dodgers lineup he should offer nice run production (on pace for 80+ runs and RBIs). DeWitt’s current only owned 3.3% of ESPN leagues and 7% of CBS leagues.

OF: Moises Alou

I’m cheating a little bit on this one since Alou is owned in 16% of ESPN leagues and 27% of CBS leagues, but I feel like Alou can make enough of an impact in all formats that these numbers will rise into the 80’s and 90’s within 2 weeks, so I’m focusing on him. Alou’s a remarkable talent whose old and injury prone and thus often gets overlooked by fantasy owners, but when he’s in the lineup he offers consistently strong production. He’s posted an OPS above .900 in 7 of the last 9 seasons. These are his age 32-41 seasons and he’s producing at an elite level. He’s hitting in a Mets lineup that should produce plenty of run-scoring opportunities and he provides a nice combination of good power skills with a great batting average as he’s hit a HR every 20 AB’s and hit over .310 during the last 3 seasons. He can be had on the cheap right now and makes for a very nice OF option in all formats.

Two-Start SP: Jon Lieber

I’ve typically finished these Value Pick columns off with a 2 start pitcher recommendation for the following week since I know many fantasy owners play in leagues that value 2 start pitchers or streaming starters, so this week let’s focus on the newest member of the Cubs rotation Jon Lieber. Lieber gets two extremely favorable matchups next week at home against San Diego and Pittsburgh. Both of these opponents are basically running out AAAA offenses right now and Lieber’s the kind of spot starter I like to use since he rolls a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk many batters, thus he’s usually pretty safe. Lieber doesn’t strike too many batters out anymore but he should be good for 3-4 per start while posting solid ratio numbers and hopefully some W’s. Lieber’s only owned in just 13% of CBS leagues and just 1.2% of ESPN leagues. He’s a nice two-start option readily available for you to scoop up for next week’s favorable matchups.