Randy Johnson:
The Big Unit turned back the clock a bit on Sunday tossing 7 shutout innings against the potent Tigers lineup. Unit wasn’t as dominant as his younger days, striking out just 5, but he worked efficiently needing just 98 pitches to get through 7 innings. The big difference with Johnson’s Sunday start was significantly improved command. He walked just 1 batter and threw 67 of his 98 pitches for strikes. I noted earlier in the season I thought Johnson could offer “ace” value once he figured out the command and from my vantage point it looks like the command is back. After walking 9 batters in his first 16 2/3 innings, Johnson has walked just 3 batters in his last 22 innings. The strike % has gone up in that time period as well, throwing just 58% of his pitches for strikes in his first 3 starts and throwing 67% of his pitches for strikes since. Johnson will continue to carry the injury risk he’s had throughout the latter stages of his career, but when healthy I believe Johnson will continue to improve. His dominance has dropped slightly this year as his K Rate has dropped back below 1.00. This is also evident in watching the Big Unit as more hitters are fouling off pitches than swinging and missing in years past. The slightly reduced K Rate has me backing off Johnson a wee bit and calling for him to be a solid #2 starter from here on out, rather than the Ace I projected earlier in the season. I really do like Johnson quite a bit from here on out, with health being the only question mark in my mind. Having eclipsed 200+ innings in 3 consecutive seasons before last year, I’m betting that Johnson can eclipse 150+ this season.
Derek Lowe:
Lowe’s start on 3 days rest didn’t go any better than his previous starts on 4 days rest as he was rocked for 7 ER’s in just 5 innings of work giving up 10 hits. I mentioned in a blurb earlier this month that I was concerned about Lowe’s slipping control combined with the previous reports of elbow tightness, but recently the control has returned (63% of his pitches for strikes in his last 3 starts) and the effectiveness has not. While the elbow tightness continues to linger in my mind as a concern, I’m actually feeling more confident about Lowe going forward than I was 3 starts ago. I know it seems contrarian with his recent struggles but Lowe is suffering from some abysmal luck of late, posting a Strand Rate of 0.43 in his last 3 starts and an opponents’ BABIP of .400. I’ve seen Lowe being dropped in some shallow formats of late, so now seems like an opportune time to buy extremely low on the ground ball specialist. If Lowe’s completely healthy, the horrible luck he’s had of late should turn around in a big way.
Adam LaRoche:
LaRoche went 2-4 and knocked out his 5th HR of the season on Sunday in a 4-3 loss. As mentioned in previous blurbs, LaRoche just doesn’t hit in April and then continues to get better as the season goes on. While his .207/.299/.352 line looks about as appealing a Subprime Mortgage loan these days, LaRoche has continued his steady career trend of showing moderate improvements in May and June before exploding in July and August. Expect that trend to continue this season. For those in deeper leagues now makes a nice buying opportunity as LaRoche’s season totals will continue to linger in owners minds. For those in more shallow leagues where LaRoche is likely sitting on the waiver wire he’ll likely provide replacement level production until July, before he really starts to provide value. In those situations adding him right before the All-Star Break makes the most sense.
Chris Perez:
Schuyler touched on Chris Perez earlier this week noting that he’s a prime candidate to emerge in the Cardinals bullpen because of his electric stuff and successful minor league track record closing (notching 55 saves in just over 2 seasons). While I agree with the assessment and think Perez is one to watch in the Cardinals pen (especially after notching the win after coming in during a tie game in the 9th inning yesterday) I would advise some caution to owners investing heavily in Perez. Perez posted a minor league BB Rate of .68 in just over 100 innings and while his command hasn’t been an issue at all in his first two outings (16 of his 22 pitches for strikes), I’d imagine it will rear its ugly head eventually. Perez certainly has the stuff and the experience at the minor league level to succeed in the closer’s role but the extremely high BB Rate makes me believe he’d struggle initially if given an opportunity.
Todd Helton:
At 34 going on 35 (in August), Helton has been in a pretty consistent power decline over the last 4 years that seemed to plateau in 2006 and 2007. The early returns on 2008 suggest it has taken a further step back as his extra base hit rate has dropped from 11% each of the last two years to just 8.4% this year. While the power may be dropping the rest of Helton’s numbers are in line and his current .274 average is a complete mirage impacted by an unusually low BHIP%. Expect Helton’s average to climb back into the .300-.320’s range with the HR’s creeping back down closer to low double digits and the doubles dropping back into the high 30’s.
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