style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Batting Average Production (Current
vs. 3-Year Averages)
Good
morning everybody. Today we are going to
focus on the category of batting average.Â
I don't know about your squads, but this is one area of the game in
which my rotisserie team seems to be out to set new records for futility.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â (My team bats under
.200 as a team on any given day regularly.Â
My team AVG is below .250. But I
digress.)Â
Since we
know that batters generally regress to their statistical means, we can analyze
the players whose AVGs this season are really out of whack with their 3-year
averages. Based on this analysis alone,
I would expect a batter whose AVG this season is significantly below their
3-year AVG is a good bet to improve their AVG this season.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Conversely, I would expect a batter whose AVG
this season is significantly above their 3-year AVG is a good bet to see their AVG
decline this season.
We will
then take the analysis one step further, and add EYE (BB/K) to the mix.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Â We know from past research (
href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Reference-BBK1.htm">click here
and here
for all the gory details) that there is a strong correlation between EYE and
AVG. In general, the higher the EYE, the
higher the AVG for the player. Also in
general, players with an EYE 1.00 or above are .300 hitters.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â So, with this knowledge in hand, we can do
another comparison. We'll compare EYE
from this season to batters' 3-year EYE.Â
Our end result will again be the same.Â
We would expect a batter whose EYE this season is significantly below
their 3-year AVG is a good bet to improve their EYE this season (and thus, an
even higher likelihood that they will in turn also raise their AVG).
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Conversely, we would expect a batter whose EYE
this season is significantly above their 3-year EYE is a good bet to see their EYE
decline this season (and with a declining EYE comes a greater chance that their
AVG would also decline).
In order to
define the population of hitters, I set up minimum AB criteria for both the
current season (min. 150 AB) and the 3-year (min. 350 average AB during seasons
2004 - 2006) timeframes. A player had to
meet both of these to qualify for the analysis.
The first list
of players below are those with significantly lower AVGs this season than their
3-year AVGs (specifically, they have lower AVGs this season than their 3-year
AVGs by 15% or more). These players are
good bets to improve.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3-YR BA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.283
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.205
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.079
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-28%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kennedy, Adam 2B STL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.283
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.211
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.072
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-25%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sexson, Richie 1B SEA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.262
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.198
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.063
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-24%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kendall, Jason C OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.295
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.225
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.070
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-24%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gibbons, Jay LF BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.268
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.210
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.058
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-22%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jones, Andruw CF ATL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.261
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.205
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.057
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-22%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Vizquel, Omar SS SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.286
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.224
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.061
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-22%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Atkins, Garrett 3B
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.311
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.244
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.067
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-21%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Burrell, Pat LF PHI
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.267
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.211
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.056
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-21%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ensberg, Morgan 3B HOU
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.268
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.213
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.054
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-20%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Patterson, Corey CF BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.254
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.205
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.049
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-19%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kinsler, Ian 2B
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.286
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.231
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.055
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-19%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>LaRoche, Adam A. 1B PIT
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.275
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.223
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.052
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-19%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Dye, Jermaine RF CHW
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.285
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.232
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.053
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-19%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.279
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.229
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.050
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-18%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Konerko, Paul 1B CHW
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.291
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.238
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.052
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-18%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Mora, Melvin 3B BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.297
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.245
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.052
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-18%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Drew, J.D. RF BOS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.292
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.241
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.051
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Uribe, Juan SS CHW
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.257
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.213
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.045
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Berkman, Lance 1B HOU
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.308
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.255
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.053
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Crede, Joe 3B CHW
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.260
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.216
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.044
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Graffanino, Tony 2B MIL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.283
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.237
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.046
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-16%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brown, Emil LF KC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.287
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.244
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.043
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Lopez, Felipe SS WAS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.275
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.234
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.041
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Aurilia, Rich 3B SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.277
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.236
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.042
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hafner, Travis DH CLE
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.308
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.262
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.046
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Damon, Johnny CF NYY
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.302
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.257
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.045
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sweeney, Mike DH KC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.287
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.245
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.042
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-15%
Wow!
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â It's like my whole team there!
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â
Paul, Pat, Ian,
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Travis...how's it goin' boys?!?!
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Seriously, this list speaks for itself.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â If you have these players don't panic, just
endure the suffering and know that better days are likely ahead.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â Also consider targeting some of these guys as
"buy-low" candidates from a frustrated owner.
The next
list are players with significantly higher AVGs this season than their 3-year
AVGs (specifically, they have higher AVGs this season than their 3-year AVGs by
15% or more). These players are good
bets to see their AVG decline.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3-YR BA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Posada, Jorge C NYY
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.270
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.345
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.075
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Cabrera,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.269
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.343
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.074
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ordonez, Magglio RF DET
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.297
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.370
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.073
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>25%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Swisher, Nick RF OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.245
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.295
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.050
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Holliday, Matt LF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.310
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.363
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.053
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Byrnes, Eric CF ARI
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.263
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.306
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.043
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Glaus, Troy 3B TOR
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.255
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.294
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.039
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Renteria, Edgar SS ATL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.286
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.330
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.044
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jorge Posada
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> definitely deserves to be atop this
list. An AVG 28% greater than your norm
at this point in his career coupled with a decline in EYE by more than 30% says
the AVG is due to fall. On the other
side of things, Nick Swisher (56%
EYE increase) and Magglio Ordonez
(110% EYE increase) have both significantly improved their EYE to go along with
the increase in AVG, so their production should be considered the most legit.
Now we will
switch gears and look at the EYE statistic.Â
Same format as above with AVG.Â
The first list of players below are those with significantly lower EYE
this season than their 3-year EYE (specifically, they have lower EYE this
season than their 3-year EYE by 33% or more).Â
These players are good bets to improve.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3-YR EYE
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>EYE
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kendall, Jason C OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.80
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-67%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Huff, Aubrey 1B BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.69
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.43
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-62%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rodriguez, Ivan C DET
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-60%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gibbons, Jay LF BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.54
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.26
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-51%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Estrada, Johnny C MIL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.50
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-50%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Vizquel, Omar SS SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.98
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.52
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.47
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-48%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Johjima,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.43
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-46%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pierre, Juan CF LA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.00
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.57
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.43
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-43%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Belliard, Ronnie 2B WAS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.52
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.31
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.22
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-41%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Biggio, Craig 2B HOU
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.44
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.26
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-41%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Graffanino, Tony 2B MIL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.65
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.39
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-41%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.61
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.36
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-40%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Dunn, Adam LF CIN
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.60
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.36
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-40%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Chavez, Eric 3B OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.72
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.44
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.28
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-39%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.72
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.44
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.28
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-39%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Molina, Bengie C SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.51
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.32
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-38%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sanchez, Freddy 3B PIT
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.23
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-37%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.87
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.56
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.31
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-36%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Giles, Brian RF SD
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.53
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.00
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.53
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-35%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Winn, Randy RF SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.60
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-34%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Aurilia, Rich 3B SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.57
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.38
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-33%
The
following players appear on both the "expected to improve in AVG" and
the "expected to improve in EYE" lists: Kendall, Gibbons,
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Vizquel, Graffanino, Delgado, and
Aurilia.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>Â These guys should improve in both areas.
The next
list are players with significantly higher EYE this season than their 3-year
EYE (specifically, they have higher EYE this season than their 3-year EYE by
50% or more). These players are good
bets to see their EYE decline.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3-YR EYE
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>EYE
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>%DIFF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.44
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.70
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>157%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Kennedy, Adam 2B STL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.47
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.67
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>141%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rowand, Aaron CF PHI
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.62
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.33
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>114%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ordonez, Magglio RF DET
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.63
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.31
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.69
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>110%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Guerrero,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.86
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.61
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.75
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>88%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Stewart,
LF OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.71
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.54
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>76%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Wilson, Jack SS PIT
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.46
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.81
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.35
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>75%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Griffey, Ken CF CIN
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.58
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.00
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.42
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>72%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jeter, Derek SS NYY
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.60
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.03
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.43
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>71%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Francoeur, Jeff RF ATL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>70%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Burrell, Pat LF PHI
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.66
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.45
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>68%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pierzynski, A.J. C CHW
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.38
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.61
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>63%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hudson,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.59
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.93
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.34
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>58%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Swisher, Nick RF OAK
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.58
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.91
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.32
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>56%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Patterson, Corey CF BAL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.36
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Izturis, Cesar SS CHC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.60
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.92
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.32
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Morneau, Justin 1B MIN
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.53
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.79
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.27
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>51%
The
following players appear on both the "expected to decline in AVG" and
the "expected to decline in EYE" lists: Ordonez and Swisher (but
we covered them already above, and believe that although their AVGs may be due
for a decline, the improvement in EYE is a good thing, and helps to legitimize
the increased AVG).