Gavin Floyd: Despite flirting with two no-hitters this year, there is not much to get excited about when looking at Floyd’s skill set, 4.3 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9. His high FB% of 53% is going to lead to big trouble when pitching in cozy US Cellular Field. He can’t count on a 79% strand rate and a .095 BHIP% to last for too long. This is the perfect time to sell high on Floyd.
Fausto Carmona: Despite having a 2.95 ERA, Carmona’s skills have significantly deteriorated from his outstanding rookie season, 2007/2008 K/9’s of 5.7/3.4 and BB/9’s of 2.6/7.0. The incredibly high amount of ground balls that he induces, 67% GB% is helping, but once more of the many balls that he allows to be put in play find holes, .256 BHIP%, he will have major problems unless he can cut down on the walks. The sample size is small but you have to wonder if hitters have learned to recognize his sinker and lay off of it because they know it will fall outside of the strike zone.
Keith Foulke: Foulke, who has been out with a neck injury, is expected back today. He has been mentioned as a possible replacement if closer Huston Street is traded. After missing all of last season when he retired due to elbow problems, Foulke is a big injury risk. Although his skills look good so far, 7.7 K/9 and a 1.3 BB/9, the sample size is tiny, just 7 innings, so it is hard to get a read on whether Foulke can stay injury free and maintain these skills over a longer period time. It is not worth stashing Foulke away on a reserve list in mixed leagues hoping that he will get a shot to close.
Vincente Padilla: Don’t be fooled by Padilla’s numbers, 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 8 starts. He is enjoying an 83% strand rate and .233 BHIP%. In addition, his BB/9 of 3.2 is bordering on trouble and his history suggests he will soon enter the trouble territory, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s of 4.5/3.2/3.7.
Matt Joyce: The recently called up Joyce could see some decent playing time with the Tigers. He was showing some nice power in Triple-A, 5 home runs and 6 doubles in 97 AB, but his .299 batting average was propped up by a .293 BHIP%. His poor Ct% of 72% and BB/K of .41 in the minors this year means that if you roster him, you may get some pop but will be trading it off for batting average downside.
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