Gavin Floyd – It seems that we are always hating on Gavin Floyd, and he keeps proving us wrong. Last night Floyd threw a complete game, allowing 3 runs. Once again, though, we witnessed a mediocre at best skill set as Floyd struck out just 3 batters over that time. Meanwhile, he walked 4. He also gave up a homer. Floyd’s luck is bound to run out sometime. Before last night’s start he had a bad K rate of .446, and had actually walked more batters than he struck out (23:22). His HR:FB% allowed was 6.3%; the past three seasons it was 14.7%, 19.7%, and 17.7%. Also, his BABIP is an extremely lucky .193, and that number will actually be lowered after last night. When Floyd’s HR:FB% allowed and BABIP increase significantly (and that will happen), his inability to strikeout batters combined with an absolutely terrible K:BB ratio will result in a huge rise in his ERA and WHIP.
Richie Sexson – Richie Sexson has always been a batting average killer, but this season and last season Sexson’s batting average has been so bad that is intolerable. Heading into last night’s action Sexson was hitting .206, and last year he ended the season with a .205 mark. Richie’s main problem is his horrendous singles average (.182 to start the season). With most players we might project a turnaround based off bad luck, but Sexson’s track record shows that he is susceptible to having a terrible singles average for an entire season. In 2004 Sexson’s singles average was .143, and last season it was .161. Further reason to not expect Sexson to turn it around is that in those two seasons his EYE was .67 and .51 respectively, but right now Sexson’s EYE sits at .36. To top it all off, Sexson’s HR rate has been on the decline since 2004 (8.7/6/5.1/4.3/4.8).
Joe Saunders – Saunders is another pitcher like Gavin Floyd who has been extremely successful to begin the season despite having only fringe stuff. Saunders was 2 outs away from a shutout last night, and he ended the night going 8.3 innings allowing a lone run. He walked 3 and struck out 4. Saunders has a bad K rate (.41) resulting in a bad K:BB ratio of just 1.56. His main reason for early success has been a low BABIP of .240 and a high LOB% of 83.6%.
Gary Sheffield – Sheffield hit just his 3rd homer in 36 games last night. He is off to a slow start, and I think he is a buy low candidate. Sheff’s current HR rate is well below his normal HR rate, and even though his power is declining, we should see an increase on his current HR rate (current HR:FB% - 5.1%, career HR:FB% - 16%). Also, his singles average is an unlucky .164, especially considering he has a very good EYE of 1.03. So, with a rise in batting average and power on the horizon there probably won’t be a better time to go and get Sheffield.
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