Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera’s singles average the past 4 seasons has been .287/.293/.300/.295, but this year it sits at .255. Also, Cabrera’s ISO, which had been on an upwards trend (.201/.219/.238/.229/.245) sits at .178. At age 25 it is impossible for me to believe that a deterioration in skill is responsible for such a quick, drastic reversal of two trends that have a strong indication of offensive performance. That leads me to believe that Cabrera is both pushing a little bit on his new team and getting unlucky. Don’t unload Cabrera now, as you are unlikely to get the proper return for him at this point. Instead, stick it out and you will most likely be greatly rewarded.
Alex Rios – Many people, including myself, had Rios pegged for a huge fantasy season. One area where owners have to be happy is the stolen base department; Rios already has 13 steals. However, he has been a disappointment in the other categories. Rios’ power numbers have clearly taken a hit as a result of Rios putting on the ball almost twice as much as he has done the past two seasons. Of his balls in play, Rios hit 41.6% and 44.1% of them for fly balls in 2006 and 2007 respectively. This year, only 32.5% of his balls in play have gone for fly balls. His strikeout percentage is also causing him problems. Rios has struck out 7% more of the time than he did last season. Rios needs to sort these issues out if he hopes to turn it around.
Shaun Marcum – Marcum had another stellar performance last night, hurling 7 innings, allowing just one run. I’m a big Marcum fan, but you definitely have to expect his ERA (2.63 before last night) to take a hit at some point. His increased K rate (up to 7.67 K/9) is definitely helping him get a little bit lucky, but there is no way that his current BABIP of .217 can be sustained. Likewise, his LOB% is a tad high at 81% and should come down somewhere into the 75%-78% range.
Joe Crede – Crede started the season red hot, hitting 7 homers in the season’s first month (25 games, 93 at bats). However, Crede has slowed a bit since then hitting 3 homers after April (30 games, 95 at bats). I would not be too concerned as a Crede owner, though. The decreased homerun totals are just a result of a natural dip in his HR:FB%, and he should start hitting some more out soon (as I’m writing this he has hit 2 homeruns on the night, giving him 3 in the past 2 days). The good thing is that Crede’s EYE is actually improving as the season progresses. Right now it sits at a career best (by far) .71. Crede has hit more than 20 homers 3 times, but his averages in those seasons were just .239, .252, and .283. With an improved batting EYE and 10 homers already, Crede appears poised to put a quality batting average (.290 - .300) together with a 20+ homer year.
Derek Jeter – Jeter is a career .316/.387/.460 hitter, but so far this season his line is just .281/.336/.392. So what exactly is wrong? For one thing, I think Jeter’s power is in decline. Jeter is 34, and after posting HR:FB% between 12% and 17.1% for 5 seasons (2002-2006), his HR:FB% dipped to 9.3% last season. Currently, it sits at 6.7%. His LD% is also his worst ever. On his career 20.4% of Jeter’s balls in play have gone for lie drives, but this season that percentage is 15.6%. That has to be a main contributor in Jeter posting a singles average that is well below his previous three year average. Taking this all into consideration, I do not think that Jeter is the player he once was, and what you have seen from him so far this season should be what you will see for the rest of the season as well.
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