Gavin Floyd – Floyd won for the 14th time this season by defeating the Orioles yesterday, but I am still unconvinced that he is a good fantasy pitcher. I have not been a Floyd fan all season because I feel that he has gotten lucky, and the numbers back that up. Floyd has a sub-4 ERA (3.78 to be precise) despite a K/BB ratio of 1.84. His WHIP is also a respectable 1.23. The primary reason for this, though, is not something that Floyd can control, but something that lady luck controls and that is his BABIP. Floyd’s BABIP is just .250, which is very low for a SP who has logged as many innings as Floyd this season. He does not have an extraordinary K rate (.71) or GB/FB ratio (1.00), so those cannot be looked at as the reason for his luck with balls in play. Expect Floyd’s WHIP and ERA to rise over the season’s final month.
BJ Upton – BJ Upton’s drop in average this season can in large part be explained by his singles average. Last season, Upton managed to have a singles average of .341 (extraordinarily high), despite striking out 32.5% of the time and posting a contact rate of 67.51%, which is awful. So, this season Upton’s singles average has dropped, as predicted, and the result is a batting average that has decreased from .300 last season to .269 this season. There is hope, though, that Upton could one day, maybe as soon as next season, hit for a solid average. He has managed to improve his plate discipline this season. His K% has dropped to 25.2%, and he is taking more walks. The result is an EYE that has improved quite dramatically, from .42 to .74. Upton might not hit .300 in ’09, like he did last season, but an average in the .285 - .290 range is not out of the question.
Roy Halladay – Halladay continues to be simply dominating. Last night, he picked up his 16th victory of the season by pitching 6 strong innings against the Rays. Halladay struck out 7 while walking none. He did give up 6 hits, but all of them went for singles. Halladay has been good the past few years, but his increased K rate this season has allowed him to be better than good. Halladay’s K/9 the past 6 seasons have been 6.32/6.90/6.43/6.86/5.49/5.55, but this season Halladay has his K/9 all the way up to 7.64. He has managed to do this without raising his BB rate (1.55), which has led to an amazing K/BB ratio of 4.94. Combine Halladay’s control with his ability to get ground balls (GB% of 53.6%) and efficiency (8 CG), and you have a pitcher poised to win the CY Young award.
Adam Lind – I believe that Adam Lind could be a productive fantasy OF next season. I am a big believer in his power. In 2007 (in limited time), Lind had a HR/FB% of 13.3%. This season that number is up to 16.7%. Lind’s only problem this season is he is putting the ball on the ground too much, thus limiting his chances for hitting homers. His GB/FB ratio is 1.80. If Lind could get that number closer to 1 or even at the 1.23 level it was last season, he could hit 25 – 30 HR over an entire year, which is something to keep an eye out for.
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