Trevor Hoffman – Hoffman recorded his 28th save of the season, and he will most likely save at least 30 games for the 13th season out of the last 14. The only season he did not obtain 30 saves came back in 2003 when he only appeared in 9 games. Hoffman is now 40, and even though the save totals are there, there the question remains whether or not he is still effective. His ERA, which had been under 3 the past 6 seasons, has risen to 4.24 this season. This is strange when considering the fact that Hoffman’s K/BB ratio is a rock solid 5.50 and that he is striking out 9.82 batters per 9 innings, his highest mark in that regard since 2003. Also, his BABIP and LOB% are not out of line by any stretch of the imagination. The only obvious reason for Hoffman’s rise in ERA is that he is giving up 1.79 HR/9, much higher than his career mark of .82 HR/9. Sure enough, if you take a look at his HR/FB% it is a whopping 14.8%, which is more than double his career average (6.2%). This number is especially alarming since Hoffman’s HR/FB% the past four seasons has been 7.4/4.2/7.2/2.3. Maybe Hoffman is getting a little more susceptible to giving up the long ball in his old age, but I have to believe that it is a result of bad luck more than anything when you consider that his K rate has not dropped nor has his FB% risen. Expect Hoffman’s ERA to lower the rest of the season as that HR/FB% comes down, and he could very possibly gotten at very good value in next year’s draft if other owners fear his skills are deteriorating.
Brian McCann – After a mildly disappointing sophomore season, the young Atlanta catcher is solidly building on the overall success he experienced the first two seasons. Part of McCann’s problem last season was that he struck out more and walked less, leading his EYE to decrease to .47 from .46 the year before. Well, the exact opposite is happening this year, and McCann is posting a career best EYE of .89. That appears to be the main cause of McCann’s varied results from last season to this season, as his GB/LD/FB distributions have remained very similar in all three of his seasons. The increased EYE has led to a better batting average, and it also means that McCann’s improved discipline is allowing him to get better pitches to hit leading to better contact. This has an especially profound effect on McCann’s power numbers. In 2006 when he had a good EYE, McCann hit 14.1% of his fly balls for homeruns. Last season, as his EYE dipped so did his HR/FB%, all the way down to 9.7%. With McCann’s EYE back to what it was his rookie season and even a little better, he is now posting a HR/FB% of 14%.
Ronnie Belliard – Belliard is quietly having one of his best professional seasons, and he has been hot lately. On the season, his BA/OBP/SLG line is .280/.366/.464, and that .464 slugging percentage is a career high. Entering the month of August, Belliard was hitting a lowly .223, but since then Belliard has hit .390, raising his batting average a whopping 57 points. More than anything this is just a result of Belliard’s singles average adjusting itself. Before the month of August, Belliard had a terribly unlucky singles average of .153. With a hot month though, Belliard’s singles average is moving towards where it should be and now sits at .246. This is a very accurate representation of Belliard’s true skill when you consider his singles averages the past 4 seasons have been .245/.239/.249/.258. The numbers show that Belliard really is about a .280 hitter, and his early season slump was a result of bad luck, not deteriorating skill.
Joey Votto – Joey Votto is another young rookie with a bright future for the Reds, even though he has often been overshadowed by teammate Jay Bruce. Votto hit his 17th homer of the season last night. Votto is hitting a solid .293, but fans hope to see a bit more pop in his bat. He ranks only 9th out of 13 qualified NL 1B in terms of slugging. His HR last night was just his 4th since the All Star break. Votto’s average is boosted by the fact that he has a very solid LD% of 25.4%. That is a good sign and proof that Votto makes a lot of solid contact. As he gains more major league experience and matures as a hitter, that solid contact should lead to a quick development in Votto’s power. Votto’s slugging percentage will almost certainly increase next year, and he will eventually become a consistent 30 HR guy.
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