1. Bud Norris (SP - Astros) - It looked like it was going to be one of those nights for Bud Norris. He allowed a quick 3 ER in the first inning, but then settled down and just allowed 1 more earned run before being removed after 6.0 IP. He was the pitcher of record and was handed the loss to bring his record to 5-3. While Norris struggled early, he still recorded 12 K's for his first double-digit K total of the season. He's had two big blow-ups this season, allowing 7 ER and 9 ER in two of his starts that keeps his ERA inflated at a 4.65. You take away those two starts and his ERA drops to 2.89 and WHIP of 1.24 (compared to 1.41). In total, he is 7-for-12 in QS. He has a stellar K/9 of 9.82 either way you look at it and is worth the risk for the occasional blow-up.
2. Wade Miley (SP - Diamondbacks) - He may only be 6-for-12 in QS this year, but he is trending in the right direction with a 7-2 record. Four of his last five starts have been quality starts including last night's gem of 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, and 5 K's. It was also his second straight game of not allowing a BB that brings his K/BB to 41/16 for the year. While he has been pitching well of late, he'll face off against the Rangers next week and could be a risky start against the team who leads the league in runs scored (309), team average (.285) and team OPS (.809).
3. Dee Gordon (SS - Dodgers) - Dee Gordon has looked a little better recently, going 8-for-23 in June with a .320 OBP. That is certainly an improvement from his dreadful start to the season that had his average sitting at .226 and his OBP at .268 at the end of May. While Gordon's ownership value is concentrated in his SB potential, he has not swiped a base in 10 games and only has 2 SB dating back to May 6th. His super low OBP certainly doesn't help, but even with an OBP in April of .247 he managed to steal 10 bases. And last year's .325 OBP led to 24 SB in 56 games. Being dropped to 8th in the lineup probably had something to do with his opportunity to swipe some bags, but he's back at the top of the order now so I would expect the SB to come soon. The real trend problem I would like to see reversed for Gordon as the season progresses is his astronomical K-rate. His BB/K is just 0.26 as he averages a K for every 5.0 PA. That's a tough pill to swallow for a guy that doesn't have any power and who leads-off.
4. Paul Goldschmidt (1B - Diamondbacks) - Goldschmidt is on fire right now. He extended his hitting streak to 14 straight games during which he has raised his average from .223 to .288. While the average will likely drop at some point, the important factor here is the power is back. He has 5 HR during the streak to improve his AB/HR to 23.3 (compared to last year's rate of 19.5). The confidence is back with both him and his manager, so you should have the confidence to march him out there and expect decent power numbers for the remainder of the season.
5. Zack Greinke (SP - Brewers) - Greinke may never lose at home in 2012. He hurled 7.0 IP of 2-hit ball while recording a season-high 12 K's to bring his record to 7-2. Greinke is a completely different pitcher in Miller Park compared to being on the road. At home this year, he is 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 52 K's in 41.2 IP. On the road, he is 3-2 with a 5.93 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and a K/I of 1.0. This home/away split isn't just a 2012 anomaly. For his career, Greinke's home line is 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, K/9 of 8.4 compared to his away line of 4.28 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, K/9 of 7.6. He claims the split is due to the comfort of waking up in your bed, having breakfast in the same place, having a comfortable clubhouse, and getting into a routine. Not exactly a sabermetric analysis, but whatever works I guess. Continue marching him out there in Miller Park, but you may want to consider strategic benchings of his starts on the road against tougher opponents.
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