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NL Daily Notes - May 1st, 2012

Schuyler Dombroske

Bryan LaHair - Another day, another homer (and a double) for LaHair, as the Cub 1B finishes April with 8 doubles, 5 HRs, and a .780 SLG. His swinging strike% and overall K rate scream for some regression here, as does a .607(!?!) BABIP. Still, there is enough here on the positive side in terms of LD rate, BB rate, and raw power to think that even when the regression comes, there will still be enough value to justify owning him in most (if not all) formats. Selling high is an option certainly, but I'm not all that pessimistic.

Yonder Alonso - Alonso started out the season ice-cold, but after hitting in five straight through last night he's dragged his line up to 253/329/347. He's had a very unfortunate BABIP thus far, and should be expected to bring his AVG up to a respectable (.265-.280?) area, but the power just hasn't developed all that much thus far and Petco will continue to dampen that portion of his game. 1B is reasonably weak right now in the NL, making Alonso still a viable option in NL-only formats, but until he realizes some of that power (and he is just 25 this year) his mixed league value is close to nil.

Mike Minor - Minor was surprisingly smacked around by the Pirates yesterday, allowing seven runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 9-3 loss. He did fan 9 and generate 13 swinging strikes in 107 pitches, both of which highlight the tremendous potential that Minor possesses. He allows so many flyballs that I think he'll always have some gopheritis issues, but aside from that Minor has as much potential as just about anyone. A terrible strand% is helping depress his value, something a savvy owner should exploit before it's too late.

Vance Worley - Worley continues to impress, holding the weak Cub offense to one run on five hits over seven innings of work, striking out five. The increase in GB rate has been helpful this year, and for the past few starts now he is generating the swings-and-misses needed to maintain an elite level K rate. His control has been acceptable, stuff is at the same level as last year....I've been skeptical that Worley can maintain borderline ace-level performance this season, but thus far he is proving me wrong, and I can't find too much to make me think he's going to regress significantly.

Pat Corbin - Pat Corbin made his major league debut yesterday against the Marlins, limiting them to three runs over 5 2/3 innings and picking up the victory. He did allow 11 baserunners, which I believe can be at least partially attributed to nerves, as Corbin's control is generally pretty solid. My biggest issue with Corbin has been periodically high HR rates in the minors, which can often be a pretty big red flag. Other than that, he's been solid if unspectacular during his climb up the ladder. It appears that he'll get at least a few more starts until Daniel Hudson returns, at which point the D-Backs will have to choose between Corbin and Wade Miley. Both of them are likely just placeholders for Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer in the longer-term, however, and should be viewed as such for fantasy purposes. Corbin's next two outings are likely @NYM and home against SF, neither of which are too intimidating. I wouldn't mind trying him out in NL-only formats for this short stretch, and possibly even in deeper mixed leagues, although I'd have a bit more trepidation there. I think his ceiling is likely a back-end starter.

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