Jonathan Papelbon- PHI- Stats- Papelbon picked up his 11th save of the season and second against his old team, Boston, in as many days yesterday. He has yet to blow a save this year. Although the run Papelbon gave up last night was his first since his first appearance of the season, there are some signs that he has been struggling a bit. He has only faced the minimum number of batters twice in his last 7 appearances. More disconcerting is that his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically this year. After averaging over 10 Ks per 9 IP for the past 6 seasons Papelbon's K/9 is at 7.40. His velocity has dropped from 93.8 last year to 92.6 this season after dropping from 94.8 in 2011. Papelbon has a 53.7% FB% but it hasn't hurt him that much because his HR/FB rate is only 3.4%. The peripherals don't look good and so Papelbon looks like a sell high candidate.
Ike Davis- NYN- Hot- Davis went 2-for-5 with 2 RBI in his first game since being told he was thisclose to being sent to the minors. Davis also only struck out once. On the one hand the 2 singles could be a sign that regression to the mean could be kicking in on his .220 BABIP. On the other hand it continued his streak of games without an extra base hit that has now reached 18 games. Davis also has gone 17 games without scoring a run. If he starts rapping out some hits that could keep him in the majors but unless he starts producing some power his fantasy value will remain limited.
Tom Koehler- MIA- Hot- Koehler is 0-3 with the Marlins despite a 3.22 ERA and quality starts in his last 3 outings and not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his starts since joining the rotation. Don't count on him as being a sleeper candidate, though. Though Koehler has a 3.50 FIP as a starter he also only has a 5.40 K/9 ratio. He also has a 54.5% GB%, which is not what he has shown in his minor league career.
Jordan Zimmerman- WAS- Cold- that may have been some regression to the mean kicking in during the 7th inning last night. Zimmerman had allowed 3 runs in the first 6 innings but was charged with 4 more in the Orioles rally in the 7th. His BABIP is still at .243 and his ERA of 2.37 is still well, below his FIP of 3.26. Zimmerman has more room for negative regression.
Adrian Gonzalez- LAN- Hot- Gonzalez has 4 multi-hit games in his last 5, going 11-for-19 with 3 homers in that span. The power surge is especially encouraging as Gonzalez only had 4 before this stretch. His current .333 average might be a little inflated by a .347 BABIP, but Gonzalez has a .325 lifetime BABIP so he's not that extraordinarily lucky. He could be gearing up to get on track for the .300+ average and close to 30 homers he was projected for. His Batting EYE is at .71, a significant improvement over his .38 last season so that's another good sign.
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