Matt Garza, RHP, CHC Garza limited the Brewers to one run on eight hits and struck out 10 over seven innings Thursday afternoon to pick up his third win. After a rough start - he had a 6.26 ERA over his first five starts - Garza has gone 2-0 and allowed two earned runs on 15 hits with a 23/5 K/BB in his last 22 innings. Garza still has just 49 1/3 innings under his belt, so his batted ball rates are going to get skewed when he has a day like Thursday, allowing seven line drives. Limiting the longball will be key for Garza, as he'll likely post a K/9 in the 8.0s and a BB/9 in the 2.0s. If he can keep his HR/9 below 1.0, like he did in 2011, that will allow him to post an ERA in the low 3.00s. In 2009, 2010 and 2012, he had a HR/9 above 1.0 and had an ERA in the 3.90s all three years.
Nate Schierholtz, OF, CHCThe move from AT&T Park, where Schierholtz has a .727 OPS in 247 games, to Wrigley Field has worked out for the outfielder. He's hitting .323 with six homers, 19 RBI and a 1.023 OPS at home and .256 with three homers on the road. The Cubs will be on the road for the next six games, but they wrap up the first half with nine of 10 games at Wrigley (the one road game is a makeup game July 8 at the Chicago White Sox).
Tim Lincecum, RHP, SF Lincecum has been better statistically in June than May, posting a 3.60 ERA, but he has been more lucky than good. For example, his strikeout rate is just 7.50 and his line-drive rate is 29.5 percent this month. On the season, Lincecum has a 26.6 percent line-drive rate overall and a 26.8 percent line-drive rate with runners in scoring position. He does have a 3.68 FIP, but his strand rate is just 66.2 percent.
Tyler Chatwood, RHP, COL Chatwood has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight starts, including Thursday against the Mets when he gave up one in six innings. The righty has a 59.2 percent groundball rate, which works well at Coors Field. He has yet to allow a home run this season and owns a 2.13 ERA and a 2.71 FIP. As long as he continues to keep the ball in the park, fantasy owners should find a roster spot for him.
Aaron Hill, 2B, ARI Hill hit a two-run homer off Stephen Strasburg Thursday night, his first since returning from the disabled list. The righty-swinging second baseman hit 26 a year ago, and 18 came off right-handers. He batted .316 with a .906 OPS against righties, compared to .271 with an .839 OPS versus southpaws. All three of his longballs this season have come against righties as well.
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