Francisco Liriano went 3.1 IP and gave up 6 ER on 10 H, 4 BB, and 2 K's. Liriano's ERA now sits at 5.25 and there is clearly something wrong with him. His walk rate has shot up to 13%. He threw the highest percentage of pitches outside of the zone a year ago and got hitters to chase, but this year hitters are laying off and making Liriano throw in the zone. This has led to more walks and home runs (1.70 HR/9). Liriano's SIERA does not paint a pretty picture for the future (4.60). It is time to consider moving on from Liriano. Give it one more week to see if he goes on the DL with some sort of injury to get things straightened out.
Anthony Rizzo was 1-3 with an RBI and a walk in the 6-2 win over the Diamondbacks. Rizzo has hit for power (12 HR), but the average hasn't been there (.246 AVG.). He is still getting on base at a .390 clip. The only thing that is down for Rizzo is his BABIP, which is well below his career average and should normalize over the course of the year. Rizzo is going to be even better, which is scary for the rest of the league.
Jimmy Nelson went 4 IP and gave up 6 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 1 K's. Nelson came into the game with a 2.88 ERA, but a 4.38 SIERA. He left with a 3.43 ERA. Nelson has been getting lucky with his LOB% and BABIP, which are both due to regress. Nelson doesn't have the elite strikeout potential or extreme groundball mix to maintain an ERA below 3.50. Pitching half his games in Miller Park isn't going to help either. If you can find someone that thinks today's start is just a blip on the radar, then I would deal Nelson before regression sets in.
Eugenio Suarez was 3-4 with his 13th HR in the win against the Nationals. Suarez now has 4 HR and 8 RBI over his last seven games. Suarez's average sits at .242. The power is legit as he is hitting the ball hard (33%), in the air (38%), and pulling it (44%). Suarez should see some positive regression in his BABIP, which will help raise his average over the .250 mark. Suarez is on pace for a 25 HR/10 SB season, which is tremendous value for where he was drafted.
DFS Value Play
Franklin Gutierrez has a .401 wOBA and .306 ISO against LHP over the past three seasons. This includes 47% Hard contact and 24% LD. He faces Martin Perez, who pitches to contact (14.6% K). Gutierrez has been averaged 96 mph on his exit velocities for the past week, which is well above average. DraftKings: $3,400
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