Batting Average Production (Current vs. 3-Year Averages)

 

Good morning everybody.  Today we are going to focus on the category of batting average.  I don't know about your squads, but this is one area of the game in which my rotisserie team seems to be out to set new records for futility.  (My team bats under .200 as a team on any given day regularly.  My team AVG is below .250.  But I digress.) 

 

Since we know that batters generally regress to their statistical means, we can analyze the players whose AVGs this season are really out of whack with their 3-year averages.  Based on this analysis alone, I would expect a batter whose AVG this season is significantly below their 3-year AVG is a good bet to improve their AVG this season.  Conversely, I would expect a batter whose AVG this season is significantly above their 3-year AVG is a good bet to see their AVG decline this season.

 

We will then take the analysis one step further, and add EYE (BB/K) to the mix.   We know from past research (click here and here for all the gory details) that there is a strong correlation between EYE and AVG.  In general, the higher the EYE, the higher the AVG for the player.  Also in general, players with an EYE 1.00 or above are .300 hitters.  So, with this knowledge in hand, we can do another comparison.  We'll compare EYE from this season to batters' 3-year EYE.  Our end result will again be the same.  We would expect a batter whose EYE this season is significantly below their 3-year AVG is a good bet to improve their EYE this season (and thus, an even higher likelihood that they will in turn also raise their AVG).  Conversely, we would expect a batter whose EYE this season is significantly above their 3-year EYE is a good bet to see their EYE decline this season (and with a declining EYE comes a greater chance that their AVG would also decline).

 

In order to define the population of hitters, I set up minimum AB criteria for both the current season (min. 150 AB) and the 3-year (min. 350 average AB during seasons 2004 - 2006) timeframes.  A player had to meet both of these to qualify for the analysis.

 

The first list of players below are those with significantly lower AVGs this season than their 3-year AVGs (specifically, they have lower AVGs this season than their 3-year AVGs by 15% or more).  These players are good bets to improve.

 

 

 

 

Wow!  It's like my whole team there!  Lugo, Kendall, Andruw, Paul, Pat, Ian, Travis...how's it goin' boys?!?!  Seriously, this list speaks for itself.  If you have these players don't panic, just endure the suffering and know that better days are likely ahead.  Also consider targeting some of these guys as "buy-low" candidates from a frustrated owner.

 

The next list are players with significantly higher AVGs this season than their 3-year AVGs (specifically, they have higher AVGs this season than their 3-year AVGs by 15% or more).  These players are good bets to see their AVG decline.

 

 

Jorge Posada definitely deserves to be atop this list.  An AVG 28% greater than your norm at this point in his career coupled with a decline in EYE by more than 30% says the AVG is due to fall.  On the other side of things, Nick Swisher (56% EYE increase) and Magglio Ordonez (110% EYE increase) have both significantly improved their EYE to go along with the increase in AVG, so their production should be considered the most legit.

 

Now we will switch gears and look at the EYE statistic.  Same format as above with AVG.  The first list of players below are those with significantly lower EYE this season than their 3-year EYE (specifically, they have lower EYE this season than their 3-year EYE by 33% or more).  These players are good bets to improve.

 

 

The following players appear on both the "expected to improve in AVG" and the "expected to improve in EYE" lists: Kendall, Gibbons, Vizquel, Graffanino, Delgado, and Aurilia.  These guys should improve in both areas.

 

The next list are players with significantly higher EYE this season than their 3-year EYE (specifically, they have higher EYE this season than their 3-year EYE by 50% or more).  These players are good bets to see their EYE decline.

 

 

The following players appear on both the "expected to decline in AVG" and the "expected to decline in EYE" lists: Ordonez and Swisher (but we covered them already above, and believe that although their AVGs may be due for a decline, the improvement in EYE is a good thing, and helps to legitimize the increased AVG).