Revisiting Pre-Season Projections

After hitting readers with a barrage of statistically inclined articles over the last few weeks that looked into Disaster Starts, Bullpen's Impact on SP's, the Added Impact of Middle Relievers, and the Consistency factors when evaluating hitters, I decided to lighten things up a bit for today's First Pitch. So with the All-Star Break right around the corner and nearing the halfway point in the season, I decided it would be a good time to take a look back at my preseason projections for the MLB Standings.

In my article back at the end of March I took the time out to post my predictions for both the American and National League Standings along with highlighting which players I thought were currently overvalued, undervalued, and which players I thought were going to be deep sleepers. So today we're going to take a look at how my forecasting has been up to this point in the season. First we'll take a brief look at the projected standings against the current standings and I'll talk a little bit about what I foresee happening in each of these divisions going forward and then we'll take a deeper look at the players I noted in the undervalued, overvalued, and deep sleepers section. First let's take a look at the standings!

Projected AL Standings
AL East	AL Central	AL West
New York Yankees	Cleveland Indians	Anaheim Angels
Boston Red Sox	Detroit Tigers	Oakland Athletics
Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles	Chicago White Sox	Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Kansas City Royals

 

Current AL Standings
AL East	AL Central	AL West
Boston Red Sox	Detroit Tigers	Anaheim Angels
Toronto Blue Jays	Cleveland Indians	Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees	Minnesota Twins	Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Chicago White Sox	Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles	Kansas City Royals

In the AL my big disappointment is my prediction that the Yankees would hold off the Red Sox for another year. I made this projection on the idea that the Yankees would prove to have more overall pitching depth than the Red Sox. Of Course the Red Sox have been healthy in the rotation much of the year while the Yankees depth on the staff has clearly been tested and to this point they've failed. I'm about willing to waive the white flag on this one as the lead the Red Sox has formed looks to be too big to overcome. My other big miss in the AL comes from the Mariners who I was extremely down on coming into the season. To this point, the Mariners bullpen and offense have really surprised me and they've been able to carry the weight of a poor rotation. Ultimately I think they'll come back down to the pack and finish 3^rd behind Anaheim and Oakland. Clearly the Rangers have been a mess all year and Jon Daniels recent contract extension comes at a peculiar time given the current state of the franchise and some of the poor trades Daniels has made in his tenure. I think I'll end up hitting on 3 of the 4 playoff teams with the Red Sox replacing the Yankees. I still feel good about the Indians and Angels winning the division with the Tigers coming in as the Wild Card.

P.S. Are the White Sox fans that gave me a hard time for predicting a distant 4^th place finish still around? Maybe they can share some crow with me while I dine on it for Red Sox Nation which I under-estimated.

How about the NL?

Projected NL Standings
NL East	NL Central	NL West
New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies	Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	San Diego Padres
Florida Marlins	Houston Astros	Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals	Cincinnati Reds	San Francisco Giants
	Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Current NL Standings
NL East	NL Central	NL West
New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	San Diego Padres
Florida Marlins	Houston Astros	Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals	Pittsburgh Pirates	San Francisco Giants
	Cincinnati Reds

The NL's predictions are a bit cleaner sheet with the main mistake being made by my heart. I admitted in the preseason that my heart was picking the Cubs to finish ahead of the Brewers in what I thought would be a weak division. Looking ahead I still love the Diamondbacks potential, but if given another opportunity I'd have to pick the Padres to win the NL West. I thought they'd struggle to score runs and while they have, I didn't realize their pitching could be this good. They could be the best team in the NL if they just added one more impact bat down the stretch. In the NL while the predictions look stronger now I expect only 2 of the 4 predicted teams to make the playoffs: the Mets and the Diamondbacks. I think the Padres will win the division with the DBacks hitting coming alive in the 2^nd half to win the wild card. In the Central I think the Brewers will be able to hold off the Cubs, who's trade of Michael Barrett may help them in the short-run but will leave them offensively a bit short unless they can come up with an improvement in RF to make up for the lack of punch in the lineup.

The "Supposed" Undervalued

Now let's take a look at the predictions on individual players that I said were undervalued heading into the season and talk about what went wrong with the misses and who were the big hits.

Big Hits:

Shane Victorino, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, Corey Hart, Jason Isringhausen, Russ Martin, Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Fuentes, CC Sabathia, Carlos Guillen, Torri Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Dan Haren

If you're an owner of guys on this list you're probably doing pretty well in the standings. I'm especially proud of Victorino, Hart, Martin, Haren, Sabathia, Guillen and Gonzalez on this list. Victorino was the classic case of a guy getting more opportunity, who had the speed to pay off big in the SB category despite not previously using it at the major league level. Hart was a guy that just needed the opportunity to open up in Milwaukee and as it has just recently, we've started to see his true talents shine through. If he can keep the K's down, he'll be another version of Eric Byrnes with a slightly higher upside. Russ Martin wasn't getting enough pub as the clear cut number 3 catcher coming into the season and was clearly closer to the top echelon than the 2^nd tier, he's legit and right now the most valuable catcher in all of fantasy because of his speed. Haren and Sabathia almost go hand-in-hand as the two best starters that you could get in the mid rounds and both have been phenomenal all season. Haren was going unnoticed in Oakland with the good work he's been doing there for a number of years and CC always seemed on the cusp of putting together that one great season. With a loaded Indians team behind him I felt this could be that year and so far he's proving me right. Guillen's a guy that's been long undervalued because when he's healthy he's as good as any of the other top SS's in the game (not named Hanley or Jose) and always can be had a few rounds later. Gonzalez is one of the guys that if you waited on to pick up later in the draft you had a great chance to really fill out the rest of your lineup. He emerged from that middle tier of 1B into that upper echelon and at 25, the young 1B is starting to emerge as a legitimate .300-30-100 threat for years to come.

Big Misses:

Pat Burrell, Felipe Lopez, Jacque Jones, Scott Rolen, Morgan Ensberg, Stephen Drew, Nomar Garciaparra, Garrett Atkins, Armando Benitez, Johnny Damon, Kei Igawa, JD Drew

These are the big misses on the Undervalued list and for the most part since these guys were theoretically "Undervalued"they shouldn't have hurt their owners too much. I'd say the most disappointing by far on this list include Felipe Lopez, Garrett Atkins, Johnny Damon, and JD Drew. These were players that we really believed in coming into the preseason. Atkins monster year last year and his big 2^nd half were very legitimate as his EYE and Slugging both improved considerably. Considered a solid prospect coming up through the minors with could line drive power, we counted on another great season for Atkins whose struggles have been thoroughly discussed. Lopez on the other hand was someone that due to position and category scarcity we were really high on. His projections were heavily dependent on putting up big SB numbers out of the 2B eligibility, however Lopez has seemingly refused to run and struggled to hit in general, the result has made him an utter bust. Damon and Drew are similar stories as both players we expected to continue their solidly underappreciated years that are really aided by the lineups they play in, however both have struggled with health and both have been a shell of themselves. The rest of the guys on this list are also disappointments including Stephen Drew, whom I thought would continue to build on last season's strong start and Pat Burrell, who I always thought was a bit underappreciated because of his low batting average as he's fallen completely out of favor in Philadelphia and can't even hit his weight.

The "Supposed" Overvalued:

Big Hits:

Jason Schmidt, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Carpenter, Brad Lidge, Andruw Jones, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, Mike Piazza, Raul Ibanez

This is the list I feel best about because if I could get owners to avoid these players they should have been able to really avoid some of the disaster mistakes that can really curb your season early in the draft. Carpenter was sort of my poster child for a pitcher that just had way too much mileage on his arm and I felt he was being over-drafted as the sure-fire #2 starter behind Johan. After that the list is filled with some pitchers with injury risks as well as some power hitters that I felt were being overdrafted. The massive innings increase for Bronson Arroyo last season where he threw 240 went unnoticed by many fantasy owners. On the hitting side guys coming off career years like Raul Ibanez and Jermaine Dye I felt were being a bit overvalued, although I'll readily admit I don't think anyone could've predicted the falloff for Dye. Wells was another guy that concerned me after his monster season last year because he's alternated big years and mediocre years before. Cano's season last year was significantly inflated by an abnormally high BHIP% and as a result his entire value was skewed. He was being drafted as the 2^nd best 2B and was closer to 5^th. Piazza was another guy that was being drafted rounds ahead of Russell Martin and didn't entirely deserve to be there, not his fault he's been hurt so far, but he still was closer to Michael Barrett and the rest of the catchers than he is to the top echelon when healthy.

Big Misses:

Kaz Matsui, Prince Fielder, Dan Uggla, Josh Beckett, Brian Roberts, Justin Verlander, Francisco Rodriguez, JJ Putz

As good as I feel about the list above, I feel even worse about this list. These are guys I essentially suggested staying away from and I really couldn't have been more wrong on them. With the exception of Josh Beckett, my main concerns regarding the Pitchers on this list came from injury risk. Putz's elbow problems in the spring terrified me and I basically avoided him at all costs. KRod's violent delivery has had me sworn off him for years now with the large reliance he places on the breaking ball I'm expecting his elbow to blow at any moment, but for years I've been saying this and for years I've been wrong. So maybe KRod's just a freak genetically and I have to get past my assumptions. Verlander I was primarily concerned by the heavy workload pitching deep into the post-season had on the young man's arm, but he's shown no ill effects and has even come back stronger this season. I thought Uggla's 2^nd half was more indicative of this year's production and he's re-established himself again as one of the pre-eminent power hitting 2B. I still am having a tough time coming around on Kaz Matsui, but his speed is really paying owners big dividends and hitting atop the Rockies lineup gives him plenty of opportunities to score runs. Finally the two I regret the most, Beckett and Fielder. On Beckett, I just thought he was a guy that was afraid to pitch off of his breaking ball for fear of blisters. I thought he was stubborn and wouldn't ever learn how to pitch and relying on just gas in the AL would result in another mid-high 4's ERA, I couldn't have been more wrong and as a baseball fan the maturation of Josh Beckett from thrower into pitcher has been a beautiful thing to watch all season. He's finally putting together the Cy Young type season that he always had the talent for. In Fielder's case I mentioned specifically that I thought he didn't have the Ryan Howard type breakout in him and I saw him as a better pure hitter but with less total power. Again, I couldn't have been more wrong, Fielder's on pace for 40+ HR's a mark I didn't think he'd get to until his late 20's. He's jumped into the Ryan Howard level and because of his overall batting skills and ability in the batting average category might surpass him in next year's draft rankings.

The "Supposed" Deep Sleepers

Since you can't really go too wrong on guys labeled "Deep Sleepers"let's take a look at the hits.

Big Hits:

Casey Kotchman, Aaron Hill, Hideki Okajima, Kelly Johnson, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence

There's a lot of youngsters on this list and a lot of highly touted prospects that have been able to make an impact this season (Gallardo, Lincecum, Pence) along with some former top prospects that have finally seen their star shine (Kotchman, Johnson, Hill) and then there's Hideki Okajima, whom we were higher on than any other site out there. We originally had Okajima projected to get the majority of saves in the Boston bullpen and if it weren't for Papelbon's decision to move himself back into the pen, I think we would have hit the nail squarely on the head.

Now that we've taken a look back at some of my personal pre-season predictions, in the upcoming weeks after the All-Star Break we'll move towards taking a look forward at predictions for the 2^nd half!