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Spring Training Player Spotlight Feb. 27

February 27, 2008 | article by Lou Blasi in Player Commentary (2057)

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Reports out of Minnesota say that Joe Nathan and the Twins aren't exactly close of a proposed contract extension. In fact they are one or two years apart and have been that way for the better part of a month. Nathan is said to be seeking a 4 or 5 year extension, while the Twins are offering three years. The importance of this is that as long as the partys are parted here, Nathan remains a trade candidate. In Nathan;s case however it is unlikely he would lose much value in a trade. He will close wherever he ends up pitching in August.

Mariners' Manager John McLaren says he wants to go with his starting nine as much as possible and he does not plan any platoons. That means Brad Wilkerson, who has actually hit 20 points higher vs. LHP during his career with a SLG% that is 7 points higher vs. LHP, could be looking at 400+ ABs this season. We are projecting .406 with 25 HRs and 77 Rbi. One subscriber wondered if that is a bit optimistic. If it is it would be because the fact that he will be playing 82 in Safeco where he has hit .182 in 33 career ABs with a .394 SLG%. McAfee (.250/.361 in 36 ABs) and Anaheim (.167/.313 in 48 ABs) haven't been kind to him either. He has slugged .452 in 340 career ABs at Ameriquest however. If he's playing in a neutral park those would appear to be very attainable numbers. But if the small samples at those AL West ballparks hold over the course of the year, Brad will struggle to get there.

Omar Vizquel will undergo surgery on his left knee and he will miss the remainder of spring training. That makes him doubtful for Opening Day, leaving SS to Kevin Frandsen. In 264 ABs with the Giants last year Kevin hit .269 with 5 HRs and 31 RBI. He also posted a 7.4% BB% which looks miraculous compared to his 3.1 BB% in 293 AAA ABs for the Giants in 2006. It is a safe a bet as there is on the fantasy baseball board that Kevin's BB rate will walk backwards a bit this year. But combined with his increased playing time between (SS and 2B) will mean a slight bump in overall production this year. Kevin is a tweener. he may steal you 8 or 10 bases but he's unlikely to produce enough otherwise to earn a starting slot on your team.

Mark Buehrle threw nearly 50 pitches of a mound yesterday morning without barking from his shoulder. he says he will be able to answer the bell for his first spring outing on Friday but the White Sox could play it close to the vest and hold him out. Nothing seems terribly alarming right now and if they wait beyond Friday to show him some batters you shouldn't panic. If there are new reports of pain ahead however, feel free to be concerned.

Scott Kazmir was scheduled for an MRI on his left elbow yesterday which he said felt like a hyperextension. This appears precautionary at this point as Scott did well in tests the trainers tried after the discomfort. "It was just a little scary because I never felt it before,'' Kazmir said. "But after I talked with (head athletic trainer Ron Porterfield) and everything and we did some of the strength tests I felt confident it would be all right. Just got to check it out just to make sure." The problem appeared suddenly and early in his warmup for an intersquad game yesterday, but there was no pop. A major injury to Scott could mean 5 more wins for the Red Sox this season but would not be great news for his owners. Fortunately right now it looks like Scott dodged a bullet this time. We will keep you posted.

Alex Gonzalez will miss a few days with his sore knee but the injury doesn't look like anything more than a bone bruise. He'll be reexamined Friday .

Chris Ray did some tossing on Tuesday but he hasn't even reached the 60'6" measurement of the rubber yet. He's off the grid until the ASB. Orioles manager Dave Trembley installed George Sherrill as the early favorite for saves on Monday. In 45.2 IP for the M's last year (2.36 ERA) Sherrill fanned 11.0/9 while walking 3.3 in his second full season in the majors. Those are certainly closer worthy rates. He benefited last season from a very favorable .248 BHIP% (.275 career) and an equally favorable 84.2 strand percentage (71.5% career). he's not likely to sustain those rates this season which means his ERA will climb well into the 3.00s but he should be effective. The main problem is his woeful 0.45 GB ratio last year (0.65 career). That could run him onto some trouble as a closer. But if I had to guess today I think that Sherrill will be able to handle the closers role for the O's.

The Rangers will hold Brandon McCarthy out of his scheduled start in Wednesday due to elbow soreness. The club says the move is precautionary and McCarthy should be ready to pitch next week.

Jerry Owens will not see action in the first exhibition game or two for the White Sox due to a tweaked groin which he injured on Monday. he could play by the weekend.

Paul LoDuca (returning from knee surgery) is expected to upgrade the level of his baseball activity this weekend, hopefully taking BP and catching pitchers in the bullpen by the time Saturday gets here. He is on pace to be ready for Opening Day

Bartolo Colon will reportedly make $7M if he makes 30 starts with the Red Sox this season. That isn't going to happen. The problem isn't 30 starts for Colon. The problem is that the injury to Curt Schilling and the uncertainty around Tim Wakefield threatens to turn Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz into 30 start pitchers, something the Red Sox want to avoid. That's where Colon fits. He and Julian Tavarez will contribute starts in an effort to limit their young starters below 200 IP. That is of course if Colon can return to viable form. Mostly, if he makes it to the big league roster, Colon will work in long relief with very limited value this season. Colon's contract allows him to opt out if he hasn't reached the majors with the Red Sox by a certain unnamed date.

Last year an adjustment to his change up changed Hideki Okajima into one of the most effective set up men in baseball. (3-2, 2.22, 27 holds). he tired at the end of the season posting a 4.56 ERA over his last 25 IP, but responded well to some additional rest and started the post season with 7.1 scoreless IP. Okajima plans to cut his between outing pitches this year to help cope with his heavy workload, hoping he can sustain his performance level throughout the season. This winter he has added a new two seamer, but that pitch has yet to be tested in game conditions. Regardless of the effectiveness of his new pitch, Okajima should be a very good set up man for the Red Sox again this year and he will generate good value in leagues that score holds.

B.J. Ryan threw his 10th post TJS session on Monday and everyone involved is more than pleased with his progress. After a flat session previously, Monday's outing was crisp . More importantly , B.J. is over the mental hurdle of worrying about his surgery coming apart on him and he can concentrate on results. The jays will throw him against some live BP on Thursday and get him aimed at a couple of outings versus minor leaguers after that. The feeling around camp is that is well within the realm of possibility that B.J. could be ready by Opening Day.

Even though Andrew Jones has moved on, the Braves will have a Curacao native on their roster in 2008. Jair Jurrens came over the Atlanta as part of the Edgar Renteria trade with Detriot and he will likely start the season as part of their 5-man rotation, competing with Jo-Jo Reyes. Jurrens was 16-8 with a 2.91 ERA in 43 starts over his last two seasons in the Tigers minor leagues. Last year he finished 7-5 IN AA with a 3.20 ERA, fanning 7.5/9 while walking 2.4/9. In 7 starts with the big club, Jurrens was 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA. That was boosted by a very favorable .214 BHIP% (.319 in AA last year) but his K rate with the big club was nearly half of his minor league rate (3.8) while his BB rate rose more than a half a walk/9 to 3.23. He was hurt by a 1.17 HR/9 in the majors (0.56 in AA in 2007) and an unfavorable 65.8 strand percentage (75.3% in AA) but the bigger point is that his numbers with the big club last year don't support much of what we thought we knew about Jair, so we need to set them aside and wait an see a bit this year, especially considering his change of leagues.

Jair has a heavy, but not overpowering 90+ mph fastball but he also throws a sinker, slider and change, with strong command of all four pitches. It is that command that will earn his a big league roster spot and it will give him a solid base as a major league starter. Keep in mind that the young man just turned 22 and the crossroads of all of these issues is that he has a good MLB career ahead of him but his 2008 value is questionable. The Braves will be wary of his total IP this season and he's not going to be allowed to try and survive too many 6th and 7th inning jams. That will likely keep his win totals in single digits and he is probably looking at an ERA and WHIP approaching NL league average.His ultimate best-case development scenarios are questionable too. I think he could be a good #3 starter but that seems to be about the limit. If you are prospecting for a top of the rotation starter, Jair is not your guy.

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Spring Training Player Spotlight Feb. 27

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