Clayton Kershaw - SP LA Dodgers
The Dodgers were impressed with Clayton Kershaw's 13 scoreless IP in spring training this March and so were we. Kershaw allowed just 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 15 but the Dodgers wisely decided to season the 24-year-old left-hander a few more weeks in AA.

That is where Clayton finished 2007, pitching 24.2 IP over 5 starts in AA, going 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA, holding opponents to a .196 OBA. That was due in large part to a .243 BHIP% but even more impressive was his .208 OBA in 97.1 single-A IP with a .323 BHIP% Clayton also fanned 12.3/9 in A ball and 10.5/9 in AA, but command was in issue as he walked 4.6/9 in A and 6.2 in AA.

Those rates are a bit of a mystery as Clayton walked just 1.2/9 in his first season of pro ball in 2006 and his mechanics are clean and should be easily repeatable. Clayton has strong athletic ability and it should not take long for him to hone his motion and develop his command.

Like Franklin Morales, Kershaw represents the rare combination of top-end velocity and left-handedness. Clayton has reportedly thrown close to 100 mph several times and his 6-3, 210-pound frame, which is already strong through the hips, imparts scary late life to his fastball, which cruises near the mid-90s. That late life is part of his control issues as he struggles to reign in his gift and he does not always use his life effectively. Clayton backs that up with two secondary pitches including a terrific, nearly vertical, plus curve and developing circle change.

Clayton's season debut in AA on Friday was not sharp but I am very anxious to watch this season unfold. I think Clayton is ready to explode. Given a few weeks in Carolina to simply breathe and polish, Kershaw could force his way back to the majors to play a very prominent role for the Dodgers prior to September call ups, perhaps even well before. Long term, Clayton has ace potential and the elements of his game are rushing together at breakneck speeds.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A 

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 R    2  0  1.95  37.0  13.1  1.2  0.0  .212  0.89
2007 A    7  5  2.77  97.1  12.3  4.6  0.4  .208  1.25
2007 AA   1  2  3.65  24.2  10.5  6.2  1.4  .196  1.38

Nick Blackburn – SP Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ top prospect starts the season in the big club’s rotation while Francisco Liriano is stretching out in the minors for a turn or two. He pitched well in his MLB debut as a starter this week, limiting the Angels to one run over 7 IP.

The 6-4, 205 right-hander turned 26 back on February 24th and was the Twins’ 29th round pick in 2001. He leads with a low-90s fastball that he can pump to 95 MPH when he grabs four seams instead of two. What sets him apart however is a plus cutter which helps him deal with left-handed hitters. He backs those two pitches up with a decent curve, and a quality change.

Nick was 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 AAA starts last year. He pitched 110.2 IP allowing 96 hits for a .235 OBA (.259 BHIP%) while walking just 12 for an incredible BB rate of 0.9/9. He struck out 57 for a 4.6/9 K rate. We are going to look at 2007 exclusively because Nick lost most of 2006 recovering from the effects of a knee issue that took two procedures to fix. He slimmed down, and worked his way back into good physical condition for last season.

Low-K rate pitchers face some hurdles and there a few things I like to see in their indicators. First they have to limit their walks and Nick's 1.6/9 BB rate in 8 AA appearances last year combined with his 0.9/9 rate in AAA shows he can do that. 

I also like to see a low HR/9 rates and Nick's indicators are strong there as well. He limited AAA opponents to 0.57 HR/9 last year and in his previous full season in AA, he allowed 0.75 HR/9.

The last thing I like to see in low-K rate pitchers is the ability to throw ground balls. In AAA last year, Nick induced 179 GBs against 59 line drives and 88 flyballs. Additionally he drew 189 balls to his infielders as opposed to 153 to his outfielders ....

Check, check and check.

Of course, a low-K rate pretty much precludes his potential as a top of the rotation starter but that doesn't mean he can't be useful. The problem here is that he is listed at the Twins top prospect and that may equate to a high-return player in people's minds. That is probably not the case here and you should not chase him as if he is.

There is also no guarantee that Nick sticks when Liriano returns but he will have to pitch his way off the big roster. Additionally he has very little left to accomplish in the minors, so the bigger concern would be a move to the bullpen if he gets caught in a numbers game in the rotation.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - B-

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 AA   7  8  4.42 132.1   5.5  2.5  0.7  .274  1.35
2007 AA   3  1  3.08  38.0   4.2  1.6  0.2  .251  1.13
2007 AAA  7  3  2.11 110.2   4.6  0.9  0.5  .235  0.98
2007 MLB  0  2  7.71  11.2   6.1  1.5  1.5  .366  1.80
2008 MLB  0  1  1.29   7.0   6.7  1.4  0.9  .313  1.45 

Dana Eveland – SP Oakland A’s
Dana Eveland won a rotation slot this spring with 5 solid outings in which he allowed 3 runs in 21.0 IP on 19 hits, 5 walks and 17 Ks. That looks pretty good until you get to his career MLB numbers which look like 2-4, 7.55 in 41 games, 64.1 IP total, in separate tours with the  Brewers and D-Backs over parts of the last three seasons. He gave up 87 hits in those 64.1 IP with a .324 OBA and 2.60 WHIP. That WHIP is fueled by a 5.4 BB/9 in the majors. The only good news in his career MLB line is an 8.1 K/9 rate.

The 24 year old left-hander goes 6-1, 258 and throws 4 offerings, including a fastball, slider, change and curve. He came from the D-Backs to the A's in the off season Dan Haren trade, and the A's were interested because of his strong minor league resume and the chance he had to develop in a strong pitching organization in Arizona. Dana lost much of last season with Arizona due to a finger injury after a strong 2006 campaign for the Brewer in AAA.

In 20 appearances and 19 starts in AAA in 06, Dana went 6-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He allowed just 71 hits in 105 IP fanning 9.3/9 while walking 3.5/9. Opponents hit just .193 off him due in part to a slightly favorable .265 BHIP% That belies some skills and being lefty, Dana will get a couple more looks than a RHP with the same resume. His conditioning has always been in question, as is of course his inability to port his success to the majors.

In his season debut yesterday, Dana looked strong, fanning 7 Indians over  7 IP allowing just one run on 6 hits and a walk in a tidy 101 pitches. There are reasons to believe he can pull it together at the MLB level and given yesterday's start, there are certainly reasons to roll the dice on this one and place a spec claim. Keep in mind that it would be a roll of the dice and I will be interested to watch his home and away split this season. Oakland should be a solid venue for him and we will know more after his next start against the Jays in Toronto next week.

In deep leagues it is probably time to place the claim if Dana is available in case he backs yesterday's start with a strong second start causing his disappearance from FA pools across the country.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - C

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2005 MLB  1  1  5.97  31.2   6.5  5.1  0.5  .309  1.83
2006 AAA  6  5  2.74 105.0   9.4  3.5  0.3  .193  1.07
2006 MLB  0  3  8.13  27.2  10.4  5.2  1.3  .333  1.99
2007 A+   0  0  0.00   5.0  16.2  3.6  0.0  .066  0.60
2007 AAA  1  0  1.95  27.2   4.8  3.2  0.0  .271  1.41
2007 MLB  1  0 14.40   5.0   5.4  9.0  0.0  .362  2.60