First Pitch – July 9th – Value Picks:
Welcome to another edition of Value Picks! Last time I checked in we took a look at some potential buy low targets for those owners seeking “value” on the trade market. This week we’ll get back to the usual bag of tricks, scoping the waiver wire for golden nuggets that can help your team make a 2nd half push to fantasy glory. As usual the goal is to find players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues, so that they can hopefully be available for those of our subscribers competing in deeper formats, but valuable enough to contribute in all league formats. We’ll try to highlight a player at each position and some of the names will be names we’ve discussed in the past that I still feel strongly about. Let’s get to it!
Catcher: Chris Iannetta
I feel like every week I’m writing about Iannetta but he’s still owned in just 8% of ESPN.com leagues and just under 50% of CBS Leagues, so he’s still floating around on plenty of waiver wires and I’m not really sure why? Obviously the perception that Yorvit Torrealba will continue to steal playing time is the big concern for potential Iannetta owners, but even with the timeshare Iannetta ranks 5th in MLB in HR’s for Catchers and 6th in RBI’s. On top of that Iannetta’s seen an increases in AB’s in each of the first 3 months and here in July he’s on pace for another hike. We’ve already seen some of the effects of the weather heating up in Coors this past weekend when the Rockies went off for 41 runs in a 4 game set. With the weather warming up, the playing time increasing, and Iannetta showing he can clearly hit MLB pitching to the tune of .277/.373/.528, there is absolutely no reason he should be sitting on waiver wires.
First Base: Adam LaRoche
LaRoche doesn’t completely meet the qualifications we’re looking for here as he’s owned in just 24% of ESPN leagues and 43% of CBS leagues, but he deserves mention because of his massive 2nd half track record, where he typically accumulates 75% of his total value in a season. For his career LaRoche has hit .296/.359/.534 in the 2nd half compared to just .251/.322/.442 in the 1st half and he’s come on of late hitting a ridiculous .444/.583/.944 in 18 July AB’s. He has a tasty 4 game road trip into Coors to start the 2nd half and I’d imagine he’ll get started on his usual big 2nd half numbers right out of the gates. Based on his track record and the Pirates improved surrounding cast this year, LaRoche has the chance to put up elite 1B production the rest of the way and can be had in over half the leagues out there. In deep leagues he makes for a nice trade target that can be had a lot cheaper than other likely Top 10 1B the rest of the way and for those in shallow leagues he makes for a potential 2nd half waiver wire gem.
Second Base: Ray Durham
The entire Giants offense doesn’t get a lot of respect from a fantasy perspective but there are some useful options on one of the league’s worst offenses and Ray Durham ranks among the top. Durham’s strong on-base skills continue to translate to Run production as his 40 Runs rank 15th amongst 2B and just 6 runs back of the Top 10 despite having nearly 100 less AB’s. He won’t hit for a ton of power at his age so the HR and RBI numbers are just below league average for a 2B, but he offers enough contribution in BA (.289) and SB’s (6) to make for a useful MI option in all formats. In leagues that reward OBP, his .380 OBP plays very nicely as well. He certainly deserves to be owned in more than the 3% of ESPN and 13% of CBS leagues he’s currently owned in at the very least as a reliable MI option who can help the BA, R, and SB category without really hurting you anywhere else.
Shortstop: Maicer Izturis
Shortstop is painfully thin this year so much so that we’ve been forced to look for category specialists at times and even part time players. This week we’re going to take a look at a guy who has the potential to be both! Maicer Izturis is playing enough to be considered a bit more than a role player and isn’t swiping enough bags to be a category specialist, but he’s offering enough value that he should be owned in more than the 6% of ESPN.com leagues or the 16% of CBS leagues he’s currently owned in. Izturis is only hitting .264 right now but with good contact skills (92%) and a high GB Rate (54%) his speed should help him generate more than just a league average .247 BHIP%. When on-base Izturis has good base-stealing abilities (78% for his major league career) and when in the Angels lineup he’s usually hitting near the top of the order which helps with his run production. He won’t bring much power or RBI production to the table but his multi-position flexibility brings an added feature to those in deeper leagues.
Third Base: Chad Tracy
Those who pay close to attention to my player blurbs probably saw this one coming a mile away. Tracy is hitting .283 with 4 HR’s and 15 RBI’s in just under 100 AB’s and for his career he’s a .287/.347/.467 hitter who has 20 HR’s and a .280+ batting average in two of the three full season he’s played. He’s still getting up to game speed after missing the last half of last season and the first few months of this season but with Eric Byrnes likely out for the year, his way to playing time has been cleared. The Diamondbacks have a RH heavy lineup that needs a LH presence toward the middle of their order, so Tracy should get enough RBI opportunities to make a contribution that category along with BA and a chance at 20+ HR’s. I think he’s got another 10-15 HR’s in his bat along with 40 RBI’s, 35 Runs, and a solid .285+ batting average, which makes for a pretty nice addition for those struggling for 3B help. He ranks right around my Top 20 3B eligible players the rest of the way, but has upside for the Top 10 or so if the chips fall right and his strong BA contributions in the past mean there’s limited downside to his contributions.
Outfield: Joey Gathright
Late in the season one of the few categories that a whole lot of ground can be made up quickly in is the SB category and right now there’s a guy likely sitting on your waiver wire who can potentially move you a few points in the standings and can be had for FREE, his name is Joey Gathright and he has 19 SB’s this season already. Gathright’s strictly a SB play as he won’t contribute anything in the power categories and his relatively high K Rates have always hurt his ability to hit for the .300+ average a speedster with a 67% GB Rate should hit for, but he can swing a category with his SB potential. Gathright has always had the raw speed to entice fantasy owners, but this year he’s finally figured out how to be more efficient on the base-paths which has lead to more attempts than ever before. His 23 attempts are the 2nd most in any season for his career and the 82.6% success rate is the highest of his career. He should be good for another 15 SB’s this season, despite the limited playing time. In traditional mixed formats he probably doesn’t play enough to make the SB’s useful, but in deeper formats he absolutely needs to be owned.
Save Speculation: Jim Johnson
I’m not sure I can top the recommendation of Brandon Morrow that started this space a month or so ago, but I’ll keep trying. When speculating for saves opportunity is always more important than skill-set, but because you’re holding someone currently not receiving saves you don’t want to sacrifice the ratio categories just waiting and hoping for the chance at saves, so I’m looking for both: a guy who can contribute positively to WHIP and ERA, while getting a chance at some point to get Saves the rest of the way. There has been a lot of turnover in closer roles recently due to injury and ineffectiveness (hello Joe Borowski), so the cupboard is a bit bare, but let’s take a look at Jim Johnson in Baltimore. Johnson has moved into the 8th inning role as Dennis Sarfate has struggled with command and Johnson’s extreme GB Tendencies (54%) have helped keep his WHIP and ERA in favorable territory. Both his BHIP% and Strand Rate will have some regression in it (as we’ve seen of late with his recent poor outing against Texas), but the GB’s can get you a long way. With future closer Chris Ray on pace to return next season, the Orioles very well may look to cash in on Sherrill’s value while its at its highest and if they do Johnson will garner the save opportunities. He’s currently owned in less than 5% of ESPN.com leagues and less than 4% of CBS leagues, so he’s readily available for the taking and while he’s not getting saves his tidy WHIP and ERA contributions should help your staff’s ratio categories.
Starting Pitching: Sean Gallagher
With the trade to Oakland yesterday, Sean Gallagher should get an immediate shot at taking over Rich Harden’s spot in the rotation. We’ve touched on Gallagher a bit in the past but he’s shown good skills in his brief major league career. He’s posted a K Rate above .80 and done an adequate job keeping his walks down. However the one big concern with Gallagher was a high FB Rate that would eventually lead to some issues with the HR at the major league level. As we’ve seen with a number of the Oakland starters this season, a FB pitcher can really benefit from pitching in the massive Oakland Coliseum and the move should REALLY benefit Gallagher. In AL only leagues and deep leagues I think he’s worth an immediate add and in traditional formats I think he’s a guy to keep an eye on. This is a guy, in my opinion, with better stuff than Dana Eveland or Greg Smith and we’ve seen how successful they can be at times pitching in front of the very good Oakland defense, especially at home.
