NL Quick Pitch: The Astros offense broke out against Tom Gorzelanny and the rest of the Nats bullpen racking up 11 runs. Seven Astros had multiple hits in the effort as everyone got involved. The run support was enough for Bud Norris to pick up his first win of the season. Norris struggled with Hits allowed which is a common problem with his propensity to allow LD's, but struck out 6 in 6 innings. Ryan Zimmerman launched his first HR of the season in the losing effort. Jayson Werth was removed early from the game with a hip injury. Our own Anthony Perri noted on twitter a few nights back that Werth was swinging almost entirely with his upper body, so this comes as no surprise to us. The Nationals consider it minor, but we'd prefer he take some time to get right. Adam Wainwright had another rough go of it as he allowed 4 ER's in 5 IP and picked up another loss. We'll dig in a bit more on Wainwright's struggles and what his diminished velocity means going forward within the notes this morning. Matt Holliday homered in the losing effort while Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick left the yard for the Reds. The Cardinals added injury to insult when Jon Jay left the game with a shoulder sprain and the team announced Lance Berkman would need a DL stint with his calf injury. Matt Carpenter will pick-up the AB's for Berkman and we'll examine his prospects in more detail this morning as well. Allen Craig is nearing a rehab assignment, but appears a few weeks away still. The Dodgers remained red hot despite playing with basically 2 players on offense. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp continued their outstanding starts to the season, scoring 3 of the 4 runs for the Dodgers on Thursday. The bad Jeff Samardzija showed up again as he struggled mightily with command. Ricky Nolasco wasn't much better (11 base-runners in 5 1/3 IP) but it was enough to get a W. We'll dig in on some slumping Marlins (Logan Morrison, Giancarlo Stanton) within the notes. In the late games Vance Worley and Mike Minor dominated the Padres and DBacks respectively. Jon Weiland rebounded from a tough major league debut to pitch very well for the Padres while Josh Collmenter continued to provide more evidence that he doesn't belong in the big leagues. Freddie Freeman homered twice in the win for the Braves as their offense behind Jason Heyward and Freeman has suddenly gotten rolling. Within the notes this morning we'll look at a number of slow starters and assess some hot starts from younger players.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis (OF - NYM): I was prepared to write a negative blurb about Kirk Nieuwenhuis after glancing at some minor league indicators and getting turned off by the likely platoon situation in New York, but after digging in a bit more I can see room for optimism. I should've known when my man Schuyler is behind a prospect that there has to be some good analytical reasons for it. Nieuwenhuis has legitimate contact issues (68.6% this year) which he's been able to eschew much of his minor league career on the way to a .280/.354/.464 line. Those contact issues typically come home to roost at the major league level and as a result it'll be hard to see Nieuwenhuis top a .260 average over the course of the season. Getting that out of the way, Nieuwenhuis strikeout problems have nothing to do with him being a hacker. In limited time this year he's chasing just 22% of pitches outside the strike zone and his 11% BB Rate is perfectly in line with much of his minor league history. When he does make contact he's consistently posted above average BABIPs thanks to great LD skills, which is why he's been able to hit .280 in the minors despite striking out in nearly 30% of his PA's. In addition to the good LD skills he's also shown solid pop and moderate speed, giving him the upside of a potential 4-category contributor. There are plenty of headwinds in the way (platoon issues, likely prone to prolonged slumps with the contact), but I see enough upside to warrant rostering in NL only and extremely deep mixed leagues.
Matt Carpenter (1B/3B - STL): With injuries piling up for the Cardinals it appears, Matt Carpenter will be in line for some additional playing time. Carpenter's gotten off to a hot start (.321/.343/.643) that's included 11 RBI's in his first 31 PA's. What can we expect going forward? A look at Carpenter's minor league track record shows excellent plate patience (0.98 EYE, .408 OBP), coupled with consistent batting average production (.300 hitter). The power has been just adequate (.450 slugging %) at the minor league level, which makes Carpenter's start all the more confusing. In his first 30+ PA's Carpenter has shown great pop (.300+ ISO) thanks in part to a 57+% FB Rate but has posted just a 1:6 BB:K Ratio. The plate discipline numbers tell a bit of a different story. Carpenter's swinging at just 13% of pitches outside the zone and posted a miniscule 5.4% swinging strike rate. The sample sizes are extremely small, but it confirms early on that Carpenter isn't over-matched at the major league level. With a history of elite plate discipline and a strong supporting cast around him, fantasy owners could do far worse than using Carpenter as a short-term fill-in.
Logan Morrison (OF - MIA): I'm seeing a lot of early season impatience in the 10-team mixed leagues that I play in with respect to Logan Morrison. Morrison's still working his way back from a surgically-repaired knee and as a result had to sit some games out early in the season for extra rest. Those games off coupled with a slow start in the power categories (0 XBH) have owners concerned about Morrison's value. I see little reason for concern though. Morrison's ISO has been consistent throughout his major and minor league career and as his knee regains strength the power will come. The early plate discipline signs have been extremely encouraging for Morrison (18% chase rate, 86.8% Contact Rate, 5.3% K Rate) as has the 25% LD Rate. In addition to the encouraging plate discipline start (in albeit small sample sizes), Morrison has been batting clean-up often early on. In a lineup that shouldn't struggle to generate runs, Morrison has a chance to go 90-90 in Runs/RBI's if he hits out of the clean-up spot all season long. With the indicators looking strong and lineup positioning a plus, I think Morrison is a nice buy-low candidate early in the season. He's someone I'm pouncing on when dropped in 10-team mixed leagues.
Adam Wainwright (SP - STL): Wainwright's difficult start to the season continued on Thursday. After cruising through the first 3 1/3 innings without much issue Wainwright surrendered 3 consecutive hits, 2 of which were HR's, and rather quickly the runs started to pile up. He finished having allowed 4 ER's on 7 hits and a walk in just 5 innings of work. Wainwright did strike out 5, continuing to show his ability to miss bats (9.21 K/9, 22.2% K%), but velocity remained a concern. Wainwright's average FB velocity on Thursday was just 89.5 mph which is consistent with his first two starts of the season. While it hasn't carried over to the swinging strike rate or his K Rate, Wainwright's struggles with the long-ball early in the season (5 HR's in 13 2/3 IP) are likely a result of the decreased velocity and some struggles with command in his first season back from Tommy John. Rust was probably inevitable with Wainwright's command, but most Tommy John patients have come back with similar velocity and in some cases better. As a Wainwright owner, I'm not panicked (strong GB, swing strike, and K Rates), but I am concerned about the ramifications of the decreased velocity. He'll get two favorable matchups (@CHC, PIT) in his next two outings against opponents that lack power. I'm inclined to ride it out with Wainwright through this rough patch and hope some of the gaudy HR/FB data begins to normalize. For the time being I've downgraded Wainwright to a matchups play.
Wilson Ramos (C - WAS): One of our favorite preseason sleepers at the Catcher position has gotten off to a slow start hitting just .212/.289/.364 entering yesterday's play. The limited production coupled with a disappointing 8th spot in the lineup has held Ramos to just 3 Runs, 1 HR, and 4 RBI's through his first 10 games. While the production has started slow, the peripherals look quite strong. Ramos is posting a career best 10.5% BB Rate, while also cutting his K Rate by nearly two percentage points in the early going. Ramos' plate discipline indicators in terms of his chase rate are right in line with last year's production and he's making contact on 84% of his swings this year (up 5 percentage points from last year). The incremental improvements are something we'd expect from the 24 year old backstop and once he gets his swing squared up (current 67% GB Rate) and his luck (.222 BABIP) reverts, Ramos will be on his way. The only real negative I'm taking away early in the season is Ramos position in the batting order, which I'm hoping will improve as the bat heats up. He remains a strong buy low candidate as someone who should challenge the Top 10 in Catchers by year end. If I'm an AJ Pierzynski owner, I'm looking for the Wilson Ramos owner in my league and trying to upgrade long-term.
Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @drewdinkmeyer
