Here at Fantistics, we get lots of e-mail from subscribers
asking for our advice on the typical fantasy issues that arise.... Spot starts,
trade proposals, lineup structure, and the value of free agents are the main
ones. But last weekend, I got a unique note asking for my advice on spot
steals.
I hadn't given it much thought before that e-mail, but there
truly is a fundamental strategy of picking up players strictly for speed. The
Fantistics subscriber was going into Sunday in a head-to-head league losing by two
stolen bases and wanted to give himself a decent shot at winning the category.
Typically, the best strategy is to go to the free agent wire, sort the stats by
stolen bases, pick the guy at the top and hope for the best.
But there is another component to picking-up speed off the
waiver wire that often gets overlooked: The Catcher. Of course, when a runner
gets on base, there are many factors that determine if the situation is right
for a swipe: a pitcher's move to first, the length of time it takes for a
pitcher to deliver the pitch to the plate, the hitter at the plate, the
catcher's defensive ability, the game situation, and of course, the runner's
skill and speed to steal the base.
So I decided to take a look at catchers with at least 25
starts behind the plate in 2007 to see if their defensive stats varied
significantly. I also checked the number of stolen bases per division to make
sure there weren't any glaring differences in the number of stolen base
attempts in any particular division. Naturally, the AL West, with only four
teams, had the fewest SBs, but the number of SB attempts are basically equally
across leagues.
Here's a table of SB, by division through Wednesday, May 25th:
style='width:425.1pt;margin-left:4.65pt;border-collapse:collapse'>
style='font-size:10.0pt'>AL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>SB
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CS
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>ATT
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>SB%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>EAST
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>139
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>50
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>189
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>73.5%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CENTRAL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>124
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>46
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>170
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>72.9%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>WEST
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>116
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>152
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>76.3%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>TOTAL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>379
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>132
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>511
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>74.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>NL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>
|
|
|
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>EAST
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>150
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>185
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>81.1%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CENTRAL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>130
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>57
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>187
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>69.5%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>WEST
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>118
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>55
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>173
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>68.2%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>TOTAL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>398
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>147
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>545
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>73.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>GRAND TOTAL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>777
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>279
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>1056
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>73.6%
|
There's a little "chicken or the egg"thing going on here as
well. Do runners attempt more steals because they can run on certain catchers
within a division? Or are there simply better runners in certain divisions
that cause catchers to have low success rates of throwing runners out? Those
questions are probably an entirely separate First Pitch, but for argument sake,
we'll assume SB attempts normalize to be relatively even throughout the league.
We now take a look at the top 25 catchers mentioned above.
Below is a table of these catchers, listed in descending order by the number of
attempted stolen bases per inning while behind the plate.
style='width:450.75pt;margin-left:4.65pt;border-collapse:collapse'>
|
NAME
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>GS
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>INN
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>SB
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CS
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>ATT
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CS%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>ATT/GS
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>INN/ATT
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>CERA
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>1)
|
Josh Bard, SD
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 26
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 238.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 37
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>11%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 6.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 2.23
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>2)
|
Jorge Posada, NYY
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 325.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 45
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>20%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 7.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.60
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>3)
|
Victor Martinez, Cle
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 31
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 267.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 23
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 32
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>28%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.03
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 8.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.69
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>4)
|
Mike Napoli, LAA
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 30
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 262.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 30
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>17%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.00
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 8.7
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.60
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>5)
|
Jason Kendall, Oak
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 41
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 370.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>21%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.02
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 8.8
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.29
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>6)
|
Carlos Ruiz, Phi
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 28
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 265.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 21
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 8
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 29
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>28%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1.04
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.58
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>7)
|
Dioner Navarro, TB
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 32
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 278.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 23
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 29
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>21%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.91
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9.6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5.34
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>8)
|
Russell Martin, LA
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 374.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 27
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 39
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>31%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.93
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9.6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>9)
|
Ronny Paulino, Pit
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 309.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 31
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>48%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.94
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 10.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.87
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>10)
|
Gerald Laird, Tex
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 38
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 331.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 20
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 32
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>38%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.84
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 10.3
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5.08
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>11)
|
Johnny Estrada, Mil
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 314.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 21
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 27
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>22%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.75
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 11.6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>12)
|
Kenji Johjima, Sea
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 34
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 294.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 14
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 8
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 22
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>36%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.65
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5.08
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>13)
|
Michael Barrett, ChC
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 334.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 20
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>20%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.69
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.01
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>14)
|
Paul Lo Duca, NYM
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 308.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 11
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 23
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>48%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.66
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.59
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>15)
|
Brian Schneider, Was
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 38
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 339.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 18
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 7
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>28%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.66
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13.6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.51
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>16)
|
David Ross, Cin
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 34
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 290.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 21
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>43%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.62
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13.8
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.22
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>17)
|
Ivan Rodriguez, Det
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 315.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 17
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 22
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>23%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.63
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 14.3
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.49
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>18)
|
Yorvit Torrealba
style='font-size:10.0pt'>, Col
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 231.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 9
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 7
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>44%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.64
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 14.4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.40
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>19)
|
Brian McCann, Atl
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 305.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 20
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>25%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.56
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15.3
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>20)
|
Bengie Molina, SF
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 39
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 336.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 21
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>24%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.54
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.80
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>21)
|
A.J. Pierzynski, CWS
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 321.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 20
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>20%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.57
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.04
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>22)
|
Chris Snyder, Ari
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 29
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 247.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 11
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>27%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.52
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16.5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.58
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>23)
|
Miguel Olivo, Fla
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 333.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 5
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 20
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>25%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.56
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 16.7
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.57
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>24)
|
Brad Ausmus, Hou
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 306.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 14
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 18
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>22%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.51
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 17.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.76
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>25)
|
John Buck, KC
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 30
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 270.1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>20%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.50
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 18.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.43
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>26)
|
Yadier Molina, StL
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 289.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 7
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>54%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.39
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 22.2
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 4.93
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>27)
|
Jason Varitek, Bos
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 35
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 307.0
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 12
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 1
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 13
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'>8%
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 0.37
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 23.6
|
style='font-size:10.0pt'> 3.61
|
Yes, its a lot of information. And its definitely a little
different looking at defensive stats for a change. But the above table gives
us an interesting perspective on catchers' ability to stop the running game.
As you can see, Josh Bard leads the league in the
number of attempted stolen bases while he's catching with a steal attempt every
6.4 innings. Or, to look at it another way, there are 1.4 steals attempted on
Bard for every 9 inning game. On the flip side, Jason Varitek has
yielded the least number of steals at 1 SB attempt for every 23.6 innings, or
approximately 0.38 attempts for every 9-inning game.
Other guys that haven't had much success in throwing runners
out are Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, Mike Napoli, and Jason Kendall.
These five catchers average at least one stolen base attempt per 9-innings
caught.
I have focused mostly on the INN/ATT category as a proxy for
speed, but caught stealing percentage (CS%) should also be considered. Other
than Varitek, who has the best INN/ATT but the worst CS%,
Bard leads this list as well with just an 11% CS%. In fact, the other
top-5 catchers listed also have mediocre CS%, leading to a compelling story
that runners will tend to run on these guys more than other catchers.
So how can you use this information to help "swipe"the
steal category in head-to-head leagues? If you go into a Sunday down by steals
and you can afford the roster space on a speed guy, look at more than just his
SB%. A look at a catcher's propensity to allow the steal can also have a
significant affect. You can get this information for free at any of the major
sports websites. I sourced this information
href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=78&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=fieldingPct">here
at ESPN.com.
You can periodically catch me talking Baseball (yes you can
hear me) on MCN's Bases Loaded. For
Thursday's segment click
here.
Have a great Memorial Day Weekend!
