Nyjer Morgan: A year after a big breakout in the Pittsburgh OF buoyed fantasy owners to a number of titles, the Pirates have another OF posting impressive early season numbers in Nyjer Morgan. The question is: is this one for real and is Morgan the next Nate McLouth? All signs point to a resounding NO. Morgan, while an intriguing speed skill-set hasn’t been an adept offensive player in his minor and major league career posting just a .727 career OPS. While Morgan has been off to a tremendous start hitting .400/.429/.500 in his first 40 AB’s, the production is being buoyed significantly by a .400 BHIP%, once that reverts Morgan’s batting average will drop down into the .270-.290 range he typically sits. As the BA trends downward his chances at swiping bases will decline as well and since Morgan isn’t an efficient base-stealer (just 68% success rate in major league career), the totals will fall. While he’s on pace for a monstrous 50 SB season, he’ll likely settle back into the high-teens, low-twenties if given full playing time. In addition his struggles offensively as a whole will likely lead to a battle for playing time to hold off younger players in the Pirates system with more upside like Andrew McCutcheon. Morgan is an ideal sell-high candidate right now for those in NL only formats riding the early production and someone to avoid completely in traditional mixed formats despite the early season hot start.
Lou Marson:
Marson got his first start since being promoted and promptly went 2-3 with a 2B and a Run. Marson is an intriguing catching prospect for those in dynasty leagues as he’s shown good plate discipline at the minor league level with adequate pop and will eventually get to play in the hitters’ haven that is Philadelphia. In the immediate future, Marson good get some looks behind the plate with Chris Coste playing poorly and Marson getting off to a hot start last night and if he does get a look there are reasons to believe he could have some success. Though he has just 94 games above high A, Marson demonstrated elite plate discipline skills for a young player with a .97 EYE at AA last season en route to hitting .314/.433/.416. That kind of plate discipline should give Marson a better shot at adjusting to big league pitching and in turn having a chance at turning out some fantasy value this year in NL only formats.
Dan Uggla:
Two more hits on Thursday raised Dan Uggla up to .323 as he continues his usual annual pattern of production. The last two years I’ve written extensively in player blurbs about the way to handle Dan Uggla whose production has been remarkably consistent by month. Each year Uggla starts slow at the beginning of April, starting to round into form in late April on the way to his best month of the year by far, May. His peak production comes in May but he maintains above average production through June before failing off a cliff in the 2nd half of the season. With over 2000 PA’s, this pattern has been established and has played out like clock-work each of the last two seasons. As an illustration, Uggla’s career OPS by month has been: April - .771, May – 1.044, June - .913, July - .749, August - .773, September - .735. For Uggla owners enjoy the production for the time being but keep in mind, he’ll be an ideal sell-high candidate at the end of June and begin plotting for this now. Typically I’ll try to send out feelers for Uggla in late May, early June while hoping to complete a deal in mid-to-late June for Uggla before he starts his annual tailspin.
Anibal Sanchez:
Sanchez picked up his first win of the season, limiting a depleted Braves lineup to just 2 ER’s over 6 innings. Sanchez is best known for his no-hitter in his rookie season but his value as a prospect and fantasy pitcher is often skewed by his inclusion with other Marlins young pitchers. Because of the success of Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, Sanchez’s name often gets the hype behind it that the other two pitchers have already achieved. Unfortunately for Sanchez he hasn’t shown the stuff at the major league level to back that hype up. His career 6.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 suggests Sanchez will be lucky to hold the success he’s achieved so far with his 3.76 career ERA. Through 2 starts this year Sanchez has now allowed 18 base-runners in just 11 innings while posting a 7:6 K:BB ratio. Despite carrying just a 1.64 ERA through 2 starts, Sanchez is flirting with disaster and is pitching more like a pitcher with an ERA in the high 4’s than the high 1’s. Look for significant regression in his ERA if the skills don’t start catching up soon.
Kosuke Fukudome:
Fantasy owners are a bit jaded from Kosuke Fukudome’s 2nd half meltdown last year to buy into the early season success, but should they? Fukudome went 2-5 on Thursday and knocked out his 3rd HR of the season and now has a sparkling .375/.487/.781 line through his first 32 AB’s. With 4 2B’s in addition to those 3 HR’s, Fukudome has a ridiculous 21% extra base hit rate along with a tidy 1.75 EYE that suggest everything right now is based on skill and not luck. Unfortunately this doesn’t offer too much clarity into Fukudome’s future as he posted a strong 11.2% extra base hit rate and a 1.06 EYE in April of last year. There are some good things to take away from this though: 1) the start is even stronger than last season and 2) he’s no longer new to the league. Fukudome has clearly made adjustments to the way pitchers attacked him last year and while he won’t produce at this level of the “all-star” type level some expected of him when coming over, he sure looks like a better bet to be closer to the guy we saw in the 1st half last year as opposed to the guy we saw in the 2nd half. For fantasy purposes, he’s not a terrific play outside of OBP leagues as he’s a limited speed-limited power OF, who I’m beginning to think will put up a .290-100-15-70-10 type line we expected from him last season.
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